Jake MichaelsFeb 17, 2026, 07:09 AM

CloseJake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer who has worked for ESPN since 2013. He primarily writes on the AFL, but his assignments have taken him all around the world, covering everything from Formula One to Grand Slam tennis, championship boxing to international basketball, and the Olympic Games.

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The 2026 AFL season gets underway in just two weeks. Who are the flag favourites? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked each club ahead of Opening Round in his pre-season tiers.

Note: ESPN’s AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2026 season.

And STILL!

1. BRISBANE

Surely nobody will take umbrage at the Lions holding top spot. This club has been the benchmark of the competition for the past three seasons and in 2026 it will be chasing both a fourth successive Grand Final appearance and a rare threepeat. Sure, there are some major questions in the wake of the ongoing Lachie Neale saga, but we’ve seen this movie — at least something similar — before and it hasn’t derailed the club’s pursuit or ability to win silverware. With stars on every line, marquee offseason signings, and highly touted draftees entering the fold, Brisbane is once again the team to beat.

Can the Lions go back-to-back-to-back in 2026? Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty ImagesUp to their eyeballsSTAY IN THE KNOW WITH ESPN

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2. GEELONG

3. GWS

4. ADELAIDE

5. GOLD COAST

The Lions rightfully deserve their own tier at the top, but nobody would (or should) be surprised if any of these clubs upset them for this year’s premiership. The Cats continue to challenge for flags under Chris Scott, have all the experience in the world, as well as a talented crop of youngsters that don’t look out of their depth on the biggest stage. The Giants might have the best all-around list for the second year in succession. Don’t forget, this club ended last year on a red-hot 11-2 run, which featured five wins by 35 points or more. The Crows may have fallen flat in last year’s finals series, but they did win the minor premiership and entered September as the co-flag favourite. The Suns may be a little more of an unknown quantity, but this club is on the rise, has just had a taste of finals football, signed two bone fide stars, and has a proven coach at the helm.

Really could go either way

6. SYDNEY

7. FREMANTLE

There are some who are overly bullish on the prospects of these teams and others who are incredibly concerned. I’ve landed on the fence for both. The Swans gave up depth in order to sign two-time Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow and fill their seismic key forward hole. But can Curnow rediscover his best after a lacklustre last two seasons at the Blues? I mean, the man has kicked one bag of five goals in two-and-a-half years! Meanwhile, the Dockers promised plenty last year, but were upset in a home elimination final by the Suns. Both should have strong records throughout the home and away season, but can either make a meaningful run in September?

Charlie Curnow will play for the Swans in 2026. Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty ImagesShot themselves in the foot

8. HAWTHORN

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS

These two sides should be in serious premiership contention this year — and who knows, maybe they will be — but their chances of lifting silverware have been significantly reduced by their own foolishness. The Hawks refused to budge on their Zach Merrett trade package and ended up failing to sign their man, a star midfielder who would have made them, at the very worst, the second-favourite for the flag. It’s a similar story with the Bulldogs. This team has no issues scoring, but restricting their opposition has been an ongoing problem. Is the leaky defence something that was addressed this past offseason? Of course not.

Intriguing? Sure. Good? Unlikely

10. COLLINGWOOD

11. ST KILDA

12. CARLTON

13. PORT ADELAIDE

14. NORTH MELBOURNE

There’s no shortage of storylines to follow with these five teams. The Magpies have mortgaged their future in a bid to win now, but are they still in the premiership window or will everything soon come crashing down? The Saints just went on a mega offseason shopping spree to prove to star midfielder Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera it’s serious about contending. The Blues may have up to 10 new players on the park when we see them run out for their Opening Round clash against the Swans. With Michael Voss, it’s also got a coach on the hottest of hot seats. For the Power, it’s all about superstar Zak Butters and whether he will stay or go. And then there’s the Kangaroos. Will they finally gap the cellar dwellers and play finals? So fascinating. So much intrigue. But honestly, nobody would be surprised if all five combined for zero finals wins in 2026.

Is Michael Voss the most under pressure coach in the league? Paul Kane/Getty ImagesNo chance of finals

15. ESSENDON

16. MELBOURNE

17. RICHMOND

18. WEST COAST

Go on, keep the receipts and tell me how wrong I am come September, but I really think you’re wasting your time. These four teams aren’t only missing finals, they all feel destined to be finishing the home and away season in the bottom four. At the very least, the bottom six. Sure, the Bombers suffered a horrid run of injuries last year, but they also lost 13 consecutive games to finish the year — three by 90+ points — and continue to look inept after the mid-year byes. The Demons are only set to slide further after losing both Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver during the trade period. And then there’s the Tigers and Eagles. What do you really need to say about them? It’s going to be tough sledding for all four.