February 18, 2026 — 7:30pm
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One Nation’s Victorian branch received less than $100 in donations last year, sparking doubt about its strength for this year’s state election battle, although Pauline Hanson’s minor party claims its membership has ballooned at least threefold in Victoria.
The party, which had its first Victorian MP, Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, elected to the upper house in 2022, has broken through in recent federal and state polling that has upended established wisdom about the two-party system and perceptions of One Nation’s weakness in the state.
One Nation’s Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell after being elected for the Eastern Victoria region in the state’s upper house.AAP
The Resolve Political Monitor for The Age, which surveyed Victorians in January and February, estimated support for the party at state level was 11 per cent. Other polls have placed support for One Nation in the 20s, making it a serious player.
One Nation pulled just 0.22 per cent of votes across lower house seats at the 2022 election, and 2.04 per cent in the upper house.
In the last financial year, One Nation received only $97.64 from two donors in Victoria. Just $1269 has been donated in the ensuing months (from former federal McEwen candidate Jeremy Johnson, who confirmed he had applied to contest a lower house state seat in the area).
This severely limits the party’s capacity to flood state electorates, given its more powerful federal fundraising machine cannot transfer donations to be used in a Victorian campaign.
The High Court is currently hearing a challenge to Victoria’s donation rules which could simplify its ability to fundraise.
But consistent strong polling suggests cash flow might not matter in a fractured media environment, even as Hanson, the party’s founder and federal leader, continues her slurs against all Muslim people.
One Nation state president Warren Pickering said Victoria was among the states where the party had at least tripled, and possibly quadrupled, its membership in the last year. He did not provide a ballpark figure. The party, he said, had established branches in about 60 per cent of federal electorates in Victoria.
Liberals in particular will be closely watching the Nepean byelection, called for May 2 after the resignation of former deputy leader Sam Groth, to gauge whether One Nation can translate polling into votes.
It plans to field a candidate in every seat in November, with about 10 candidates shortlisted.
Coalition and Labor sources, unable to speak publicly, questioned whether the party had the infrastructure to sustain a campaign for the lower house given its record preselecting troublesome candidates and propensity for self-destruction. But they were alive to the threat.
For One Nation, turning upper house seats is a simpler task.
Pickering said the party had two strategies, depending on whether the state government overhauls the voting system for the upper house. Abolishing group voting tickets would likely benefit One Nation, which does not work with so-called preference whisperer Glenn Druery.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.Alex Ellinghausen
“We are aiming for the balance of power in the upper house, absolutely, and there’s quite a few lower house seats we intend to target with some additional resource,” Pickering said. “Our ultimate ambition is to secure government.”
Druery – who typically works with the Libertarian and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers parties, among others – said One Nation would likely win six to eight upper house seats if the government abolished group voting, but could be limited if not. The party did not have the trust of other minor parties to cut preference deals, he said.
“I respect their right to exist,” Druery said of One Nation. “But they must respect my right to try to stop them.”
One Nation has traditionally performed better in the regions and outer suburbs. But Pickering said the boost in membership included metropolitan Melbourne, where the party intends to do more work.
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Major-party MPs representing Melbourne’s outer suburbs said One Nation had not been visible in their communities yet, though it has been active in the regions.
Former Nationals state director Matt Harris said success in the lower house required people, party infrastructure and an understanding of local issues, but agreed One Nation was a threat, and could win seats in every upper house region.
Redbridge pollster Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist, said One Nation could be competitive in a couple of lower house seats and that its preferences could significantly influence results in the outer suburbs.
One Nation’s talking points are largely federal and the party’s state-based offerings are still bare. But Pickering said a policy platform had been tentatively approved.
It will include law and order, energy affordability and abolishing the treaty with First Peoples, as well as an “Australians first” housing policy. Pickering would not elaborate on what that meant, other than claiming international students and other visa-holders were taking up housing.
Photo: Matt Golding
Temporary residents are currently banned from buying established homes.The Commonwealth caps the number of new international students.
Grattan Institute housing and economic security program director Brendan Coates said demand from international students had a modest impact on housing affordability. Curbing student numbers would make housing a little cheaper, he said, but at a significant cost to state and federal budgets as well as the university sector.
The Labor government has been trying to tie the Coalition to One Nation, calling on Opposition Leader Jess Wilson to choose between standing with multicultural communities or Hanson.
Wilson this week said preferences were a matter for the Liberal Party.
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Rachel Eddie is a Victorian state political reporter for The Age. Contact her at rachel.eddie@theage.com.au, rachel.eddie@protonmail.com, or via Signal at @RachelEddie.99Connect via X or email.From our partners