Jake MichaelsFeb 20, 2026, 07:24 AM
CloseJake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer who has worked for ESPN since 2013. He primarily writes on the AFL, but his assignments have taken him all around the world, covering everything from Formula One to Grand Slam tennis, championship boxing to international basketball, and the Olympic Games.
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What’s the best case scenario for your AFL team in 2026? Now what’s the worst case? The likelihood is things will pan out somewhere in between.
ESPN’s Jake Michaels runs his eyes over every club and identifies the best possible, worst possible, and most likely year for each — the latter being what he believes will eventuate.
AdelaideBest case: Last year’s finals capitulation — the first minor premier since 1983 to be bundled out in straight sets — lights a fire in the belly. The Crows’ redemption tour, and the return of Izak Rankine, has the club back in the top four. This time they win two finals to advance to the last Saturday in September.
Worst case: It turns out the Crows had caught lightning in a bottle last season. This year, the group struggles with a tougher draw and is unable to string wins together as easily. Matthew Nicks’ side finishes the home and away season in seventh place, but loses in the inaugural wildcard final round and misses out on a place in traditional finals.
Most likely: The Crows have a top-two most potent offense in the league and remain a bona fide flag contender throughout 2026. They look near unbeatable at Adelaide Oval and skipper Jordan Dawson is once again in Brownlow Medal consideration. Adelaide wins a final, but falls short of securing a place in the Big Dance.
BrisbaneEditor’s Picks
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Best case: The clear-cut, unquestioned best side of the competition, one that just got more dangerous this offseason with the additions of Oscar Allen, Sam Draper, and Daniel Annable, lose just two games throughout the home and away campaign before running through their September opposition en route to another flag.
Worst case: Both the Lachie Neale saga and the fact this club is chasing a rare threepeat weigh heavily on the club. The Lions begin the season slowly but round into form to finish the year in fifth place. Of course, they still win a final. However, they’re sent packing the following week. Then, Neale announces his desire to return to Western Australia.
Most likely: The Lions cruise to a fourth Grand Final in as many years and win a third successive premiership. It’s now undeniable this team is one of the greatest in football history.
Can the Lions win a third straight premiership in 2026? Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Carlton
Best case: Trading star power for depth proves a winning formula for the Blues, who return to finals football after a down 2025. Harry McKay excels as the focal point of the forward line, Jagga Smith delivers on the promise, Sam Walsh rediscovers his devastating best, and Will Hayward is viewed by some as the top recruit of the year.
Worst case: Last year’s campaign of mediocrity is followed by a season of severe disappointment. The struggling Blues relieve Michael Voss of his duties before the halfway point of the year, before finishing the year in 13th place and leaving fans wondering how the club botched such a promising era.
Most likely: The Blues are a reasonably honest middling side. At times the club looks capable, on other occasions it looks out of its depth. Carlton is in contention for the wildcard spots throughout the year, and maybe even snags one, but they aren’t alive beyond an elimination final and Voss doesn’t receive a contract extension.
Collingwood
Best case: The Magpies rediscover the form that carried them to a blistering 14-2 start to the 2025 season. Craig McRae steers his ageing side to a top four finish and another preliminary final appearance, while star midfielder Nick Daicos finally takes home a Brownlow Medal.
Worst case: The refusal to blood the next generation smacks this club hard as veterans struggle for form and consistency and goals are nowhere to be found. The Magpies are more of the 3-6 team that ended last season and finish the year outside of finals, prompting an offseason clean-out and full rebuild.
Most likely: The cliff is inevitably coming for the Magpies, but the club’s able to kick the can down the road … at least for another year. Collingwood overcomes its forward line deficiencies to end the year in the sixth-to-10th range. The club wins a final, but maybe the last one for a while.
Essendon
Best case: The Bombers prove that much of their 2025 struggles could be attributed to a near unprecedented injury list. This season, injuries don’t hit anywhere near as hard, as Essendon is a more consistently competitive outfit. However, winning games against non-bottom six teams continues to prove challenging as Brad Scott’s side ends the year in 11th place.
Worst case: The 13-game losing streak to end last season was a warning sign of what was to come. Zach Merrett struggles to reintegrate himself into the club after his trade demand to the Hawks fell through, Scott continues to underwhelm in the coaching box, and the Bombers finish bottom three.
Most likely: It’s another year of disappointment for Essendon. As usual, wins come against the dregs of the competition and the club is often humiliated by the top sides. The Bombers win seven games, finish the year in 15th spot, and Merrett again asks for a trade to Hawthorn.
Will Zach Merrett remain at the Bombers beyond 2026? Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/Getty Images
Fremantle
Best case: The Dockers take another major leap forward in 2026. Justin Longmuir’s side stakes its claim for the most dynamic midfield in the competition while maintaining its defensive prowess to finish top four. The club makes amends for last year’s home elimination final loss and is a 50-50 to win a preliminary final.
Worst case: The invincibility this side had in close home and away games last year is no more. A reversion to the mean hits the Dockers hard and that 16-8 record turns into 13-11, despite many metrics remaining unchanged from 12 months prior. Like last season, this one ends in an elimination final loss. All of a sudden, Longmuir’s coaching future is far from secure.
Most likely: Fremantle is a better version of what we saw a year ago. The young forward line begins to mature, Shai Bolton settles into the Dockers’ system, and Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong enter their prime years, forming one of the top one-two midfield punches in the league. The club finishes in the top six and wins at least one final.
Geelong
Best case: The Cats, under the guidance of Chris Scott, continue to prove they are the most professional outfit in the league. They lose no more than six times throughout the season en route to a top two finish. They then return to the Grand Final for the fourth time in seven years.
Worst case: The Grand Final curse strikes again! The Cats become the latest team to lose a Grand Final by 40+ points and then fall away the following year, slipping to ninth spot and failing to win its wildcard final. To make matters worse, Patrick Dangerfield hangs the boots up on his illustrious career.
Most likely: The Cats are one of the main challengers to Brisbane completing its historic threepeat. They are a mainstay in the top four throughout the year, win at least one final, and have three players in the All-Australian team.
Gold Coast
Best case: The high-profile additions of Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan take this rising team to the next level. The Suns build on last year’s fairytale run to the second week of finals, finishing top four for the first time in club history and winning through to the Grand Final without having to leave Queensland. At 6pm on the last Saturday in September, Noah Anderson holds the premiership cup aloft in the middle of the MCG.
Worst case: Just like the Bulldogs, the Suns are unable to get Ugle-Hagan on the park, while the depth given up to land Petracca leaves gaping holes all over the ground. Gold Coast continues to be dwarfed by big brother Brisbane. Like last year, Damien Hardwick’s side wins an elimination final before crashing out. Only this year it feels like a massive underachievement.
Most likely: The Suns continue to improve under Hardwick and build on last year’s elimination final win over the Dockers. The offseason additions pair nicely with the established core as Gold Coast ends the year among a handful of teams in serious flag contention. The highlight of the season is the club’s first home finals win.
Has Christian Petracca put the Suns into a premiership window? Albert Perez/Getty Images
GWS
Best case: Offseason recruit Clayton Oliver reminds the football world why he was viewed as a top 10 player just two seasons ago, filling the Tom Green void as the Giants storm into the top four and win their first final since 2023. But this club isn’t satisfied with one win. A second win in September puts them back into a Grand Final.
Worst case: The Giants’ floor still feels reasonably high. Maybe higher than every other team in the league not named Brisbane. At worst, this club will be hosting one of the inaugural wildcard finals.
Most likely: GWS win at least 16 games throughout the home and away season and then overcomes its recent September struggles to return to preliminary final weekend. Sam Taylor, Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, and Finn Callaghan are all named to the All-Australian team.
Hawthorn
Best case: Sam Mitchell is named coach of the year after the Hawks finish the home and away season in fourth, despite all of the worry and concern about its undermanned midfield. Instead, the club leans on its defence — the best in the competition — and relishes being the hunted. Just like in 2025, the Hawks win at least one final.
Worst case: Failing to sign Zach Merrett this past offseason proves to be a seismic error as the Hawks struggle immensely with a lack of midfield depth. The floor is still good enough to sneak into September, but this season doesn’t end up being nearly as successful as last year.
Most likely: The Hawks don’t suffer any major drop-off, but they also don’t take any significant strides forward as season 2026 is a somewhat wasted year. Hawthorn wins a wildcard final, but falls short the following week. Attention then turns to the Merrett trade package.
Melbourne
Best case: Jack Steele ends up being one of the recruits of the year as he takes the lead role in a new-look Demons midfield, while captain Max Gawn is honoured with a record ninth All-Australian selection, despite his side winning just eight games and finishing the year in 14th place.
Worst case: With Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver gone, and Jack Viney to miss half the year through injury, the Demons have the worst midfield in the league. Gawn and Steven May come to blows several times as the club holds off only Richmond and West Coast in the unwanted race for the wooden spoon.
Most likely: The Demons struggle to replace the void left behind by their two premiership stars and sink further down the ladder in Steven King’s first year at the helm. The silver lining to a tough campaign is knowing valuable experience has been pumped into the youngsters it has drafted over the past two seasons.
Can Max Gawn inspire the Demons in 2026? Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images
North Melbourne
Best case: Four-time premiership-winning coach Alastair Clarkson guides North Melbourne’s plethora of top-end draft talent back to finals — the club’s first appearance in September in 10 years. It is only a wildcard final, and they don’t win it, but hey, this is still a monumental season for the blue and white.
Worst case: It’s same old, same old for the Kangaroos. For the seventh season in succession, this club fails to win six games and is in a season-long battle with both Richmond and West Coast for the wooden spoon. The year ends with many beginning to question if Clarkson is indeed the right man for the job.
Most likely: The Kangaroos enjoy their most successful season since 2019, winning nine games and only missing out on a wildcard final by eight premiership points. It’s become evident that this club is heading in the right direction and could very well be a top eight side in 2027.
Port Adelaide
Best case: Somehow, someway, Port Adelaide’s powerbrokers manage to convince star midfielder Zak Butters to remain at the club. Butters signs a lucrative long-term deal just days after the Power prevail on the road in a wildcard final.
Worst case: Port’s on-field struggles continue as the club manages just eight wins for the year. Butters signs with one of the many Victorian rivals circling for his signature, ending his tenure at the Power and prompting questions about the need for a full-blown rebuild.
Most likely: Port welcomes back some forgotten players who missed the bulk of last season through injury, but not much changes in terms of results. Another campaign that yields just nine wins and some catastrophic blowout losses leads to Butters inking a deal to return to his home state of Victoria.
Richmond
Best case: Last year’s five-win season was no fluke as the Tigers repeat the level of success and avoid the wooden spoon for the second year running. But the major story is the return to form of Tom Lynch, who plays 18 games and kicks 50 goals for the first time since 2022.
Worst case: The ultra-aggressive rebuild approach comes back to bite the Tigers as the club’s crop of youngsters struggle with both their output and consistency. The year yields just two wins, and after another injury-interrupted season, Lynch opts to call time on his career.
Most likely: The developing Tigers once again struggle to be competitive. The club wins four games, loses the rest, including two by 100 points. The good news is they avoid the wooden spoon. The bad news is they don’t land the top draft selection.
Tom Lynch of the Tigers celebrates a goal against the Cats in Round 24, 2025. Robert Cianflone/Getty Images
St Kilda
Best case: The offseason shopping spree is completely justified as the new-look Saints rise up the ladder and back into finals. Fourteen wins is the club’s best return since it made the Grand Final in 2010. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a believer in where the club is heading and inks another two years on his lucrative deal.
Worst case: Despite the high-profile offseason acquisitions, the Saints continue to be that perennial middling side. The season ends with just eight or nine wins as finals elude them yet again. After going backwards for four straight years, the club elects to part ways with Ross Lyon.
Most likely: There’s improvement from last year, but nothing seismic. The Saints are among a handful of teams fighting to play on wildcard weekend, but even if they feature, they’re at best a 50-50 shot to advance to the traditional finals series.
Sydney
Best case: Star recruit Charlie Curnow returns to his Coleman Medal-winning form and provides the avenue to goal the Swans have been missing since the retirement of Lance Franklin. Sydney is the biggest riser of the year, finishing the season in the top four and featuring in a preliminary final.
Worst case: Further questions on whether Dean Cox is the right man for the job begin to be asked after the Swans again miss out on September action, despite the recruitment of Curnow and the easier draw. Finishing the year in 10th isn’t a horrific result, but it’s not what anyone expected heading into the season.
Most likely: The Swans enjoy a bounce-back year, finishing fifth and entering finals as an outside premiership chance. They win a home elimination final and start as a slight favourite in a road semifinal. Three of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, and Curnow are named All-Australian, while Cox looks secure in his role.
West Coast
Best case: Harley Reid takes a Chris Judd-esque third-year leap and establishes himself as one of the league’s premier midfielders. The Eagles enjoy their best season in five years, winning six games and avoiding the wooden spoon, before signing Lachie Neale to a two-year deal in the offseason.
Worst case: Believe it or not, things could still get worse. The one-win Eagles from 2025 become the first team since Fitzroy in 1964 to go winless throughout a home and away season. The Eagles are now in the midst of one of the worst five-year periods in league history.
Most likely: The Eagles remain one of the two worst teams in the league and are in a season-long battle to avoid the wooden spoon. The club wins just four games as calls grow louder for a priority pick.
Western Bulldogs
Best case: Offense trumps defence. The Bulldogs’ attacking firepower proves too much for the league as Luke Beveridge’s side averages 110 points per game and catapults itself back into the top four. The club returns to the Grand Final for the third time in 11 years.
Worst case: Defence trumps offence. The Bulldogs’ inability to strengthen its defensive unit proves calamitous as opposition teams pile on the points. The club’s star power ensures it doesn’t miss out on a wildcard berth, but for the fourth final in succession they come up short.
Most likely: The Bulldogs are a top six team that beats up on the stragglers but struggles against those in the top eight. They win a final, but the highlight of the year is skipper Marcus Bontempelli finally capturing a Brownlow Medal.