This weekend’s Six Nations and Rugby Europe Championship promises to shake up the World Rugby rankings.
Three of the fixtures across the seven matches could see the lower-ranked team heading to the clash on the weekend move above their opponents.
That trend could start with the first Six Nations clash of the round with fourth-placed England hosting fifth-placed Ireland.
Rankings permutations
A win by 15 points or less will see Ireland move into fourth position in the World Rugby rankings but if they beat Steve Borthwick’s side by 16 points or more, Andy Farrell’s men will jump two places into third regardless of the result between France and Italy.
This is because France cannot improve their rating of 88.40 by beating Italy in Lille because of the 8.59 point differential between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
A tight win for Borthwick’s charges won’t be enough to reclaim third place in the rankings if France do beat the Azzurri but a winning margin of over 15 for the hosts will be.
Italy came within a successful kick of beating Les Bleus the last time they visited France and if they manage to go one better this weekend, the hosts will drop at least one place and as many as two depending on the result in London.
A second Six Nations defeat would not result in Ireland dropping from their current ranking of fifth, even if it is an emphatic defeat.
Meanwhile, an all-time high of seventh is again within Italy’s grasp if they can upset France and Scotland do not beat Wales by more than 15 points. Italy are guaranteed seventh place if they win by more than 15 points, regardless of what Scotland do in Cardiff.
A win at the Principality Stadium could result in a double jump for Scotland, moving ahead of Fiji and Australia, but to do so Italy would also need to lose.
Wales could drop
Wales could drop below Japan and Georgia into 14th place if they suffer a 14th consecutive Six Nations defeat and Georgia also beat Spain and one of the margins is by more than 15 points. Spain will climb above Uruguay to match their highest ranking of 14th if they beat Georgia, but a win by more than 15 points will see them move above the Lelos for the first time since the rankings were introduced in October 2003. A 16th consecutive loss to Georgia will not result in a fall from 15th for Spain.
Staying with the Rugby Europe Championship, Portugal will climb one or two places depending on the margin of victory over Romania. A defeat to Romania will see them slip below Samoa into 20th place.
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Romania moved into 21st place last week but cannot climb this weekend as a win by more than 15 points will still leave them 0.05 rating points behind Portugal. Switzerland sit one place below their visitors in 28th but victory will be enough to see them swap places with the Netherlands and move to within one of their all-time high. The Dutch will climb above Namibia in victory and gain another place if Belgium lose to Germany.
Belgium cannot improve their rating by beating the lower-ranked Germany so will remain 23rd in victory, but could fall as many as four places in defeat depending on the margin and outcome of Switzerland v Netherlands.
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ENGLAND (4) 87.71 v IRELAND (5) 86.81
England win by 15 points or less – England 88.32, Ireland 86.20
England win by more than 15 points – England 88.62, Ireland 85.89
Draw – England 87.32, Ireland 87.20
Ireland win by 15 points or less – England 86.32, Ireland 88.20
Ireland win by more than 15 points – England 85.62, Ireland 88.89
WALES (11) 74.23 v SCOTLAND (9) 81.10
Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales 75.62, Scotland 79.71
Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 76.31, Scotland 79.02
Draw – Wales 74.62, Scotland 80.71
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Wales 73.62 Scotland 81.71
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Wales 73.31, Scotland 82.02
FRANCE (3) 88.40 v ITALY (10) 79.81
France win by 15 points or less – France 88.39, Italy 79.81 (No change)
France win by more than 15 points – France 88.39, Italy 79.81 (No change)
Draw – France 87.40, Italy 80.81
Italy win by 15 points or less – France 86.39, Italy 81.81
Italy win by more than 15 points – France 85.40, Italy 82.8
Latest World Rugby Rankings
(As of 20/02/2026)
1 South Africa 93.94
2 New Zealand 90.33
3 France 88.40
4 England 87.71
5 Ireland 86.81
6 Argentina 84.97
7 Australia 81.53
8 Fiji 81.14
9 Scotland 81.10
10 Italy 79.81
11 Wales 74.23
12 Japan 74.09
13 Georgia 73.18
14 Uruguay 69.19
15 Spain 69.16
16 USA 68.26
17 Chile 66.72
18 Tonga 66.66
19 Portugal 66.53
20 Samoa 66.43