You would be forgiven for not trusting the Cavs. As Benjamin Franklin once said, “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and Donovan Mitchell’s Cleveland teams getting eliminated early in the playoffs.” 

Technically, Franklin might have left out that last part. But the Cavs’ three straight tough playoff losses have made it exceedingly difficult to trust this team to do anything other than collapse in the postseason. The final image from last year’s No. 1-seeded team was Tyrese Haliburton waving goodbye to them during the closing seconds of their Game 5 elimination in the second round. 

That embarrassing playoff series looks a lot better in retrospect after seeing how close the Pacers got to winning it all. And there’s no team as good as Indiana in the East to get through this season.

That’s why I’m making a proclamation that (gulp) the Cavaliers are making it to the NBA Finals. The signs are there that this team is going to be different. After bumping up against failure so many times, this group is ready to break through.

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The Cavs have been better than you think 

If you were to guess who the best team has been over the last quarter of the season, then you might pick the Thunder or Pistons. Maybe you’d go with the Spurs or Clippers if you were really locked in. Only Cavs fans would know the correct answer. Cleveland is 19-5 over its last 24 games. Even before the James Harden trade, it was very quietly the hottest team in the league.

That is a stark contrast to how the Cavs started the year. They came out of the gate very slowly, hovering around the .500 mark over their first 33 games. Injuries, most notably to Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Sam Merrill, contributed to that poor stretch. So did the ineffective play of Lonzo Ball and De’Andre Hunter. Even more than the injuries, their chemistry just looked off. 

Since Dec. 29, they’ve found that old spark. Ball and Hunter saw their minutes drop, Merrill has returned and been scorching hot from 3, and they’ve reached another level by replacing Garland with Harden.

James Harden is the perfect fit for the Cavs

The Harden trade was met with a fair amount of skepticism. The very early returns have been promising. They’ve gone a perfect 5-0 and have scored more efficiently than the best offense of all time. 

Harden has always made his big men look a lot better, whether that be spoon feeding Clint Capela lob dunks or getting a career year out of Ivica Zubac. Now, Allen is the beneficiary.

Allen was already entering a hot streak prior to the Harden trade, scoring a career-high 40 points in one game earlier this month. After it, he’s been one of the most productive centers in the league. They have developed instant pick-and-roll chemistry, with Allen’s solid screening and finishing being natural fits for Harden’s playstyle. 

Jarrett AllenPre-Harden tradeStat (per game)Post-Harden trade40Games513.9Points19.48.1Rebounds10.664.5%True Shooting %74 4

Merrill and Jaylon Tyson have been the other two major beneficiaries of Harden’s elite passing. They haven’t played with a guy who is able to get the ball to them using such creativity. Merrill has been gunning 3’s any time his man shades over to help on Harden. Tyson has already gotten some of the best feeds of his career from him. 

James Harden threads the needle on a surgical behind the back pass to Tyson for an easy dunk pic.twitter.com/eEzj9fXBDA

— MrBuckBuck (@MrBuckBuckNBA) February 12, 2026

Mitchell and Harden haven’t played off each other a ton yet. But Harden has taken a major load off Mitchell, giving the Cavs the ability to have one of their two creators on the floor at all times and forcing opponents to worry about both players at the end of games.

Instead of defenses loading up on Mitchell’s drives, throwing a wrench in Cleveland’s closing offense, they’ve had to contend with Harden making huge shots too. 

JAMES HARDEN TIES THE GAME AT 117!!!

HE’S GOT 22 ON THE NIGHT.

Tap to watch the finish: https://t.co/lLROH7VIoH pic.twitter.com/LzFlm0gXxl

— NBA (@NBA) February 10, 2026

The obvious question is if this can continue in the playoffs, where Harden doesn’t have the greatest reputation. The Cavs just need to get to those big games first, and Harden has played well in earlier rounds. 

MORE: Inside the storied history of James Harden trades

The Cavs have a runway to improve

The Cavs also don’t need Harden to be that good. They just need him to be better than Garland, who couldn’t buy a 3 last year as he fought his way through a toe injury. 

Harden will have a lot of help in improving the Cavs. Max Strus’ foot surgery has had a much larger impact than it’s been given credit for. Strus’ stats won’t jump out at you, but he was the glue guy for the team last year who was pressuring full court and spreading the floor for Mitchell. He should hopefully be back in March. 

Evan Mobley has also returned from a calf injury that has kept him out since Jan. 26. He’s not as good of a screener and roller as Allen, and that fit with Harden will need to be worked out. Those two have already showed some initial chemistry though, and Harden has shown that he is going to find ways to pass every single one of his guys open for some of the easiest looks that they’ve ever seen. 

The James Harden passing has looked very good in Cleveland pic.twitter.com/CdSwVR3Ccx

— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) February 20, 2026

Add in bench upgrades in Keon Ellis and Dennis Schroder, and the Cavs look like a dangerous team that could be hitting its stride at just the right time. Having one of the easiest schedules remaining certainly won’t hurt matters either. 

The signs are there that this team is poised to exorcise its playoff demons. The best way to grow is through adversity, as Franklin also once said. 

“Do not fear mistakes. You will know failure. Continue to reach out, and trade for James Harden.”Â