Jake MichaelsFeb 23, 2026, 07:25 AM
CloseJake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer who has worked for ESPN since 2013. He primarily writes on the AFL, but his assignments have taken him all around the world, covering everything from Formula One to Grand Slam tennis, championship boxing to international basketball, and the Olympic Games.
Multiple Authors
The 2026 AFL season begins next week, so it’s time to take a look at every club and determine what constitutes a ‘pass’ this year. Make finals? Avoid the wooden spoon? Win the premiership? What’s the absolute bare minimum for each team?
What is your team’s pass mark for 2026? ESPN/Getty Images
Adelaide
2026 pass mark: Avoid regression and WIN a final
This may seem like a double-barreled pass mark, but I assure you the two objectives go hand in hand. Being the first minor premier in 42 years to fail to win a final obviously stings, and there’s a very real risk it derails the club, particularly when paired with a tougher fixture. But you don’t luck into top spot after a full home and away campaign, and the Crows proved throughout last year it has one of the most potent forward lines in the game, as well as a dynamic, complementary midfield group. Finishing on top once again will be difficult, but another top four berth should be the target. And this time, Matthew Nicks’ side simply must sing their song in September.
Brisbane
2026 pass mark: Avoid a culture nosedive
The Lions could miss finals altogether this year and the majority of the club’s fans will still shrug their shoulders and be satisfied with the work their group has done over the previous three seasons. For that reason, this year’s pass mark isn’t a third consecutive premiership, nor is it a fourth straight Grand Final appearance. After all, you have to figure this young, talent-laden list is going to have plenty more chances of winning silverware. That’s why, in the wake of the Lachie Neale saga, this season’s target must be ensuring the culture and image of the club remains strong and secure.
Carlton
2026 pass mark: Play in a wildcard final
The Blues’ 2023 preliminary final now feels like a million years ago. Since then, the club has struggled immensely. In 2024, Carlton scraped into finals, only to be humiliated by Brisbane. Last year, it missed out on September action by a staggering seven wins. It’s a new-look team this year with star power traded for depth and injured players set to return to the fold. On paper, the Blues have enough talent to be an outside contender, but is Michael Voss the man to extract the most out of the group? If this side isn’t featuring in a wildcard final, he might just be looking for a new job in 2027.
Can Michael Voss and Patrick Cripps lead the Blues back to September? Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
Collingwood
2026 pass mark: Begin the transition to the next era
The longer the Magpies delay the inevitable, the worse off this club is going to be in the long run. Collingwood may feel as if it can still contend for a premiership in 2026, and perhaps it can, but it must also recognize the cliff that’s approaching, and approaching fast! The Magpies have nine players aged over 30 and 15 aged at least 28, while outside of Nick Daicos and Beau McCreery, there are no under 25s on the list that have played even 40 games. Craig McRae needs to find a way to sprinkle in the youth and pump experience into the next generation that will soon be forced to take the torch from the elder statesmen. That simply must be priority No. 1 this season.
Essendon
2026 pass mark: Have a winning record post the mid-year bye
I’m giving the Bombers the same pass mark they had last year … and quite possibly the year before. Why? Because no team continually fails its pass mark in more catastrophic fashion. It has been the same old story for Essendon in each of the last three seasons. They tease early, notching a few stirring wins, only for the wheels to fall off and the slide down the ladder to commence. Last year, Brad Scott’s team failed to win a single game after the mid-year bye and lost three times by 90+ points. Sure, injuries played their part, but a record of 7-26 in the final 11 games across the past three years proves this side can’t run out a full season.
Fremantle
2026 pass mark: Win a final
This should be a relatively easy one for the Dockers, right? After all, they hosted an elimination final at Optus Stadium last year and only lost it by a solitary point in one of the games of the season. Fremantle has one of the strongest lists in the competition and is improving rapidly under Justin Longmuir, ending last home and away season on an impressive 12-2 run. The next logical step for this club must be tasting success in September, something it hasn’t managed since knocking off the Bulldogs in a 2022 elimination final. If this doesn’t happen, the blowtorch will once again be pointed in the direction of the coach.
The Dockers suffered a heartbreaking elimination final loss to the Suns in 2025. Janelle St Pierre/AFL Photos/via Getty Images
Geelong
2026 pass mark: Lock up a top four spot
The Cats have been a perennial flag contender under Chris Scott and there’s nothing to suggest anything will change in 2026, unless of course you subscribe to the Grand Final curse! For those who don’t know, teams that lose a Grand Final by 40+ points have not won a final the following year since 1995. But if any team can buck the trend, it’s this one. Geelong, with its mix of experience and youth, will be eyeing another deep finals run. And if this team can secure a top four spot, and earn the prized double chance, they’ll enter September as good of a chance as any to win a fifth premiership in 20 years.
Gold Coast
2026 pass mark: Reach a preliminary final
Last season, the Suns broke their duck by making finals for the first time in club history. Damien Hardwick’s side even won their first final, on the road against the Dockers, no less. With the developing core now a year older and with invaluable experience under their belt, plus the high-profile additions of Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Gold Coast has to be looking beyond semifinal weekend this year. The team has the personnel and home ground advantage to finish the home and away season in the top four — it only missed out last year by one win — and that would put them in the box seat to reach the final four.
GWS
2026 pass mark: Win a final
It may seem like a low bar for a team that’s featured in September in each of the last three seasons, but the Giants have made an unwanted habit of losing finals in recent times. GWS has now lost four consecutive finals, dating to its one-point preliminary final loss to eventual premier Collingwood in 2023. With arguably the most talented and complete list in the competition — perhaps outside of back-to-back premier Brisbane — you can’t imagine Adam Kingsley’s side has trouble returning to finals again in 2026, even without star midfielder Tom Green, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury during preseason. But winning a final? Now that’s the real question for this club.
Hawthorn
2026 pass mark: Don’t throw away the season
Is it a little vague? Sure. But there’s a feeling in footy circles the Hawks have already wasted 2026 after failing to add an A-grade midfielder to their ranks this past off-season. Of course, Essendon star Zach Merrett was the one that got away. Merrett had asked out and even nominated Hawthorn as his destination of choice, but a deal never got done. As for the Hawks, they may not have that elite, top-line midfielder just yet, but they do have a top three coach in the league and are coming off a season which yielded 17 wins, including two in September that put them into a preliminary final. This season should be every bit as successful as last year.
Is Sam Mitchell a top three coach in the AFL? Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images
Melbourne
2026 pass mark: Avoid re-entering the dark, dark times
STAY IN THE KNOW WITH ESPN
Stay across all the big sports news — sign up to our weekly newsletters here!
SUBSCRIBE
The Demons have been in freefall over the past 24 months and the loss of midfield duo Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver only adds to the club’s woes. But it does mean one thing: a fresh start. This team’s likely not going to be winning many games in 2026. After all, with Petracca and Oliver it won just seven times last season. Instead, the objective should simply be giving its fans reason to make the pilgrimage to the MCG every other week. Now, that may be through competing hard week in week out, or perhaps the dynamic Kysaiah Pickett makes the leap to the true elite, but there can’t be even the slightest feeling this club is heading back into footy wilderness.
North Melbourne
2026 pass mark: Make a wildcard final
It may seem like a seismic jump to win the 12 or so games likely required to reach a wildcard final when the club has won just 20 games in the past six years, but such breakthrough campaigns aren’t exactly uncommon. Take the Crows a year ago, going from eight wins and the bottom four to minor premiers. In Alastair Clarkson, the Kangaroos have what many believe to be, at worst, the second best coach in the competition, while the club has stockpiled an enviable crop of under 25 talent that inevitably has to have them rising up the ladder. Could that be this year? Why not. This might be the last time for a while the Kangaroos are blessed with the ‘easy’ fixture.
Port Adelaide
2026 pass mark: Re-sign Zak Butters or land a record-breaking trade package
The unquestioned No. 1 objective for the Power this season should be retaining the services of Butters, the club’s two-time All-Australian star midfielder. Butters will become a restricted free agent at season’s end and will face a major decision regarding his football future. If he opts for a return to Victoria, there are 10 clubs that would be jumping over themselves to try and sign him, but Port is well positioned to match any such bids. That doesn’t mean he will stay in teal, however, as a trade could still be facilitated. If it comes to that, the club must cash in with an unprecedented haul, because losing such a once in a blue moon player would be utterly crippling.
Where will Zak Butters be playing his football in 2027? Quinn Rooney/Getty Images
Richmond
2026 pass mark: Build on last year’s semi successful season
Even the most one-eyed Tiger fan wouldn’t have picked their club to win five games last season. Remember, there were many footy pundits who believed there was a very real chance Richmond could actually go winless! The objective for the Tigers this season is simple: avoid going backwards. The club demonstrated last year that things aren’t quite as dire as many had suggested they would be, so it’s time to keep the momentum going and prove their ultra aggressive approach to rebuilding was the correct call. Just like last season, five wins should be the bare minimum for Adem Yze’s squad.
St Kilda
2026 pass mark: Give Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera a reason to stay
The Saints rejoiced last year when star midfielder Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera inked a lucrative two-year contract extension to keep him at the club until at least the end of 2027. But the end of 2027 will be here before we know it and if St Kilda is to keep him beyond next season, now is the time to show him the club is going places. The Saints spent big during the offseason, bringing in Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Liam Ryan, and Sam Flanders in a bid to enter win now territory. So, what’s the pass mark? Make finals? Win a final? The Saints will want to show significant improvement on last year, play an exciting brand of football, and, most importantly, finish in the top half of the ladder.
Sydney
2026 pass mark: Be alive during preliminary final week
After making the Grand Final in 2024, the Swans sensationally nosedived last season. Dean Cox’s side began the season slowly and never recovered, finishing three wins (plus percentage) outside the top eight. But this club is always somewhat around the mark, having won at least 12 games in each of the last five seasons. With the addition of two-time Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow, the Swans now have a bone fide star spearhead, something that’s been lacking since the retirement of Lance Franklin at the end of 2023. Sydney will also benefit from a friendlier draw this year and need to take advantage of it.
Isaac Heeney celebrates a goal against the Cats in 2025. Cameron Spencer/Getty Images
West Coast
2026 pass mark: Avoid the wooden spoon
Is it literally the lowest bar possible to set? It is. But this team is having one of the worst four-year periods in league history, so any and all expectation must be realistic. The Eagles have won just 11 of their past 95 games and have collected two of the past three wooden spoons. That’s bad enough. A third wooden spoon in four years would be morale shattering. West Coast may well be void of experience, and not yet close to being fully rebuilt, but they’re not the only side destined to struggle in 2026. If the Eagles can avoid finishing last again, bank a couple of wins, and pump games into the next generation of players, that has to be viewed as a small win.
Western Bulldogs
2026 pass mark: Finish the home and away season in the top four
It’s felt as if the Bulldogs have had a top three list for the past few years and yet all they have to show for it is two finals appearances for two losses since the beginning of 2022. This club continues to shoot itself in the foot throughout the home and away season by coughing up games it should be winning. No longer can that be the case. If the Bulldogs are to do damage in September, it’s going to need to be blessed with both home finals and the double chance. Whatever happens from there happens and fans will live with it, but for once in the Luke Beveridge era, the Bulldogs need to head into finals on the front foot.