It might be tougher to pick a wooden spoon winner this season than it is to pick the grand final winner, however there is one team who is shaping as an early contender to potentially free fall down the ladder.
Parramatta’s three game winning streak to end last season has them as a popular pick to get back to the finals, but is the hype justified?
Meanwhile, can the Raiders dust themselves off after a heartbreaking finals loss to Brisbane and prove last year’s magical regular season was no fluke?
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Welcome to foxsports.com.au’s Buy or Sell, where we give a verdict on the big, burning narratives in the NRL.
SEA EAGLES WILL STRUGGLE POST-DCE
Unlike recent seasons, there aren’t any standouts for the wooden spoon.
The Knights and Titans might seem like obvious picks given they were last and second last on the table respectively in 2025, but injury free and with new coaches, there’s an expectation they’ll rise up the ladder this season.
One team who has been discussed as a potential spoon chance is the Sea Eagles.
Of course, Daly Cherry-Evans is no longer at the club, replaced by the more than capable Jamal Fogarty, however halfback isn’t the concern with this side.
There are several players in Manly’s current best 19 that might struggle to keep a spot in first grade this year.
The forward pack has a number of players who are nearing the end of their career while the backline is talented but lacking depth. It’s probably fair to say that they are one Tom Trbojevic injury away from tumbling down the standings.
You can’t read a whole heap into trial games but their performance in attack against the Bunnies was hard to watch.
Despite the noise heading into the 2026 season proper, Sea Eagles centre Reuben Garrick is confident his side will have to
“That’s the industry we’re in because you’ve got to win, and we will be winning,” he told Newswire.
“I know a lot of people are writing us off, but we’re always the underdog here at Manly and we’re never tipped to win anything … I think we’re going to prove people wrong this year.”
Verdict – BUY
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CANBERRA WILL PROVE 2025 WAS NO FLUKE
It was a magical regular season last year for the Green Machine.
They surprised everyone to finish atop the ladder, driven by several youngsters who turned into stars of the game perhaps a bit earlier than expected, and one of the NRL’s most skilful and dominant forward packs.
Unfortunately for their passionate fan base, the club were bundled out in straight sets after a brutally unlucky loss to eventual winners Brisbane before a terrible second half sealed their fate in a semi against the Cronulla.
The Raiders’ fans are likely still sensitive about how their season ended, particularly that 29-28 loss to the Broncos.
It seems coach Ricky Stuart took a bit of time to get over the stunning loss, after Phil Gould revealed a conversation the pair shared during the off-season.
“I hope I’m not talking out of school here but during the off-season I got invited out to Randwick races and Ricky was there and he turned around to me and said, ‘can you believe that final?’ It was still eating at him,” Gould said on his Six Tackles with Gus podcast.
“I’ve never seen anything like that when a team celebrated three times and had it taken away from them … It was extraordinary. They won that game and the whole course of the season changes if they do.”
The query around the Raiders is halfback.
Jamal Fogarty had a terrific season in 2025 and turned that form into a huge new deal with Manly.
The young and inexperienced Ethan Sanders takes over but the raps on him are high and he did show in limited first grade action last season that he’s a player to be excited about.
Sanders will need to be very good for the Raiders to finish in the top four again, but behind this forward pack of Young, Tapine, Papali’i and Horsburgh, his job will be made so much easier.
Verdict – BUY
It took quite a bit of time for Ricky Stuart and the Raiders to get over last year’s heartbreaking finals loss. No doubt they’ll use it as fuel this season.Source: Getty Images
REED MAHONEY WILL BE ONE OF THE BUYS OF THE YEAR
The Cowboys’ attack is one of the more potent units in the NRL.
They’re fast. They’re flashy. They can score points at will and blow teams off the park when things are going right.
Unfortunately for them, you need to execute in defence and the Cowboys simply haven’t done that since they were beaten in a prelim by the Eels in 2022.
A reason for their defensive woes is because they have lacked a hard edge and have at times, been accused of being soft.
That’s why the signing of Reed Mahoney may prove to be a masterstroke by Cowboys brass. He’s the type of player the club desperately needed.
Mahoney is a crafty hooker in attack and a tackling machine in defence. Most importantly though, he’ll be leading the way in speed off the line and barking at his middle forwards.
“When you look at this squad, we’ve got some strong, powerful middles and when they get off the line aggressively, it’s intimidating,” Mahoney told foxsports.com.au.
“So if we can deliver that, and I can communicate and steer the boys around defensively, that will go a long way to building good habits and allow us to play that Cowboys style of footy.”
“Since arriving up here, he’s really challenged everyone to go to his level, compete the way he does,” Cowboys star Tom Dearden said.
“He’s been very vocal in driving standards … I can’t praise him enough for what he’s brought.”
The signing of Mahoney was a step in signalling a tactics change by coach Todd Payten.
The season in which Payten won Coach of the Year, the Cowboys made a prelim final on the back of their restricting defence.
According to fullback Scott Drinkwater, it appears the aim is to focus on nailing what worked back in 2022.
“We’re focusing more on being a gritty, grinding team who defends well and plays the game the right way by doing all the small effort areas well which can turn into big moments. That’s where we are trying to get to,” Drinkwater revealed to Fox League.
Mahoney might not challenge for individual honours such as a Dally M Medal, but his impact on the Cowboys will go deeper than what the stat sheet reads.
Verdict – BUY
Reed Mahoney is fitting in nicely at the Cowboys.Source: News Corp Australia
WILL THE BRONCOS FEEL A PREMIERSHIP HANGOVER?
There have been a couple of early hurdles in 2026 as the Broncos prepare to defend their title.
Firstly, the Payne Haas bombshell.
Haas will no doubt be hungry to leave the Broncos on a high and win back-to-back competitons, but you have to wonder what effect his looming exit will have on the playing group.
Secondly, can the Broncos bounce back from a World Club Challenge loss?
History suggests that yes you can. The Panthers did it twice.
Simply put, while the start of 2026 hasn’t been ideal, it’s not going to derail this side.
“I’m not overly concerned about them,” journalist Brent Read said on NRL360.
“Payne is the sort of guy that now he has made this decision, will be focused on winning a competition because he’s that driven.
”You saw Reece Walsh in that WCC. In the second half, he inspired a comeback… I’m not I’m not overly concerned about them.”
“I agree I think the Broncos will be fine. I’m a bit worried about players moving and all the rest but I actually think they’re still gonna have a very good season,” NRL 360 host Braith Anasta added.
Verdict – SELL
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ARE THE EELS OVERHYPED?
Parramatta left their fans wanting more when last season ended, playing a brand of footy which was easy to enjoy in the back-end.
Their poor start to the year and a frustrating Mitch Moses injury meant that the Eels were out of finals contention early, but they were able to finish with a flurry and collect a few big scalps late, including wins over the Broncos, Roosters and Warriors.
So, after a shaky start, the first year of the Jason Ryles era was considered somewhat of a success and certainly a step in the right direction.
The question is now, can they carry that form over to this season?
It’s hard to think they won’t given the amount of quality in the side, especially in their spine.
Moses and recruit Jonah Pezet form a lethal halves combo, Isaiah Iongi is one of the best young fullbacks in the world while hooker Ryley Smith is another young talent who played above his years last season.
After slow starts, their forwards came on significantly in the second half of the season and a few of the big boys were impressive during the trials.
The hype is justified at this stage as they have the talent to make a serious finals push.
Verdict – SELL
IS THE POST-VEGAS SCHEDULE FAIR?
The NRL rely on advanced AI software to determine the time and place of each and every one of the competition’s 204 regular season games.
For the most part, it’s considered pretty fair, but let’s face it, there’s going to be at least one or two issues.
Scheduling post-Vegas is one of those.
In 2024 – the first year of the NRL’s foray into Vegas – the four teams that went over, the Broncos, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Sea Eagles, were all drawn to play another one of the Vegas teams in the following round.
For instance, Broncos/Roosters and Souths/Sea Eagles were the two Las Vegas matches that year. In Round 2, the Broncos played Souths and the Roosters battled Manly.
Seems fair, but for whatever reason, the NRL changed tact the following year.
In 2025, the Raiders, Warriors, Sharks and Panthers were the second wave of Vegas teams but instead of games against each other in Round 2, poor old Cronulla had to travel to Townsville to play the Cowboys.
The Warriors and Raiders were rewarded with home games that week, but Canberra then faced a horror draw which included away games in Sydney (R3), Townsville (R4) and Darwin (R6).
This year, the Cowboys have to travel to Sydney in Round 2 to play the Tigers off a bye at Leichhardt Oval while the Knights are away (Manly), the Dragons are at home and the Bulldogs have a bye.
It’s a minor issue as these Vegas teams will have the following week off to recover from the hectic overseas trip and no matter how the draw is determined, it’s understood that it’s never going to be perfect, but perhaps some grace in the schedule should be given to all of the travelling teams.