McLaren is unlikely to have the pace to power Oscar Piastri to a drought-breaking home podium at the Australian Grand Prix next weekend, according to team boss Andrea Stella.
No Australian has ever finished on the podium at their home grand prix in the 39 editions of the race dating back to Adelaide in 1985.
Piastri came close last year after qualifying on the front row behind teammate Lando Norris. The Melburnian challenged the sister car hard for victory, but both drivers spun off the road in a sudden rain shower. Norris recovered in time to retain the lead and take victory, but Piastri was momentarily beached in the grass and had to fight back to finish ninth.
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It put him 23 points behind Norris just one round into the season. He lost the title to his teammate by just 13 points.
Piastri has been expected to have a second crack at victory at Albert Park this year, with McLaren starting 2026 as the defending constructors champion, but a generational rules shake-up has disrupted the team’s momentum.
Though the Woking squad appears to still be among the frontrunners, Stella doesn’t expect the team to start at the front of the field this year.
“With all the unknowns involved — in testing there are parameters that are not fully known, such as the amount of fuel on board or, particularly from this year, the way in which the available energy is used — I feel I can confirm … Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull are a step ahead of the competition,” he said.
“Within this leading group, we believe that Ferrari and Mercedes are a step ahead, although it is difficult to quantify how large the gap is. We will find out starting next week in Melbourne.
“For our part, we are happy with what we have seen in our car, but we are equally aware that some of our main competitors — it is not coincidence that all three are works teams — have done an excellent job.”
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McLaren is the only team among the frontrunners without their own engine, with Red Bull Racing becoming a works team for the first time in its history after opening Red Bull Powertrains this year.
In 2026 McLaren will continue its long association with Mercedes, having used the German marque’s motors to win the last two teams titles as well as last season’s drivers championship.
Works status has been theorised to be more important this year given the complexity of the power unit regulations, with overall performance inextricably linked to how efficiently energy can be harvested and discharged.
Though the regulations require that engine suppliers and customers have access to identical hardware and software, there is a presumed advantage for works teams in building and understanding how the power unit operates that will pay dividends particularly in the early stage of the season.
“We need to work hard to catch up and develop the car as quickly as possible,” Stella said. “Once the cards are on the table, development will become the major challenge.
“To use a football metaphor, the first part of the season will see us playing a bit defensively, trying to exploit the counter-attack.”
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Acknowledging the significant obfuscation between the teams during pre-season testing, McLaren has chosen not to prepare a major upgrade for its car for Melbourne, preferring to keep its powder dry until it knows what it’s up against in favour of refining the package it has.
“It will essentially be the same [car in Australia],” Stella said. “We will have introduced some minor aerodynamic updates and will continue to work on important aspects, such as the weight of the car — this is a rather significant factor not only in absolute terms but also because going below the minimum weight will allow us to work on weight distribution.
“Another key factor is the exploitation of the power unit, as I mentioned earlier.”
Despite the sober assessment of McLaren’s immediate future, Stella said both Piastri and Norris were feeling “positive” about the start of the season.
“Both Lando and Oscar were able to drive continuously at Sakhir and worked very hard on all of the areas that will allow them to improve the overall performance of the car,” he said.
“Let’s not forget, a driver’s talent and ability to make the most of all the tools at their disposal has perhaps never been so important — not only in qualifying but in all aspects of race management, from the start onwards.
“The quality of the integration between driver, engineers and the car will be increasingly important.”