The Edmonton Oilers have reached the Stanley Cup Final in consecutive seasons and, organizationally, there is still belief this team as structured can win it all. The math, however, is starting to get complicated.

It goes without saying any team with a two-headed monster of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is alive until they are officially dead. And in fairness to both the Oilers superstars and the organization broadly, Edmonton has shown itself to be a very resilient team.

The offensive firepower has been there, but the regular-season dominance hasn’t always been guaranteed. In fact, since the 2020-21 pandemic-shortened year, the Oilers are just 10th in goal differential (+69) – a strong number, but perhaps less than you’d expect for a team that’s routinely been pushing deep into the playoffs.

There have been several reasons for Edmonton’s intra-season roller coasters over the years.

Early in the McDavid era there was a stunning lack of depth at the forward position, and more recently the team has been fighting woeful goaltending. But none of these issues have slowed them down for an extended period. In fact, one of the defining points of the McDavid era has been this team’s ability to rally, especially late in the season.

But that’s hardly been the case this season. This is a team that’s been fighting to stay alive in the playoff race rather than pushing for a divisional win. The sharp rallies of years past simply haven’t appeared, and that’s why, with six weeks left in the season, Edmonton is just 67 per cent likely to qualify:

Yost1

From a talent perspective, this Oilers team is still loaded. But when you start comparing them to the Central Division goliaths or Vegas (i.e., Western Conference contenders), they don’t look as fierce.

What’s complicating matters is Edmonton doesn’t have much salary flexibility to modify their lineup heading into the trade deadline after adding goaltender Tristan Jarry from Pittsburgh. As it stands today the Oilers have effectively zero cap space, which means any sort of addition is going to require meaningful salary retention or a cap-neutral trade, which can be hard to find.

What complicates matters further is that isn’t solely a goaltending story. While they have been outsized contributors to the goals against problem, it should be noted expected goal rates against (blind to goaltending performance) are up considerably, and the penalty kill has slid to 27th in the NHL:

Yost2

Beneath the surface, the offensive juggernaut we have grown to love still exists, but the margins have disappeared. And why those margins have dissipated is straightforward. The goaltending remains a nightmare – Jarry is about three goals worse than a replacement-level goaltender since being shipped to Edmonton on an 86.2 per cent stop rate.

Relative to league averages, Edmonton goaltenders are all too forgiving (via HockeyViz):

Yost3

If nothing else, it will be fascinating to see what the Oilers’ approach will be heading into such a crucial trade deadline.

The non-existent cap space really limits their ability to upgrade, and the question of where to upgrade still feels meaningful.

A second goaltending move feels unlikely; the team must instead hope Jarry can find his game. There’s been speculation about adding a defenceman to pair with the struggling Darnell Nurse – perhaps Calgary’s Zach Whitecloud or Ottawa’s Artem Zub, if the Senators could be incentivized to move on from the reliable veteran? As far as forward depth is concerned, Nashville winger Erik Haula’s defensive touch would fit in nicely with this team.

Improving this team, given the constraints, is going to be difficult. But it’s clear the front office is preparing as we head towards Friday’s deadline. It started with waiving Andrew Mangiapane and his $3.6 million cap hit over the weekend, and there’s already speculation as to whether Edmonton can get Adam Henrique to waive his no-trade clause in the event of a future deal.

General manager Stan Bowman has less than five days to figure all of this out and reposition his team back into Stanley Cup contention. Fail to do so, and there will be an awful lot of questions about the quality and viability of this roster.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference