It is titled ‘Listening to Australians, Interpreting the Data and Setting Monetary Policy’.
Here is an extract dealing with the current uncertainty around the Middle East war.
The upshot? It’s too early to know the economic impact.
“The past few days have seen a significant escalation in conflict and instability in the Middle East, which is deeply concerning. The human cost is particularly regrettable, and we sincerely hope that conditions improve quickly for all civilians affected.
“These events are a timely reminder that in this world of geopolitical uncertainty, things can change quickly. It’s too early to say what the economic impact will be, events are moving rapidly and there are different ways this can play out. We will take some time to make sense of what it could mean for inflation here. A supply shock could, for example, add to inflation pressures. And the potential implications for inflation expectations are something we are very alert to.
“But at the same time, a prolonged impact on energy markets could have adverse effects on global economic activity and result in downward pressure on inflation. It is not obvious how this might play out.
“So as much as I know the public would like more certainty about the direction of interest rates, it would be wrong for us to pretend to have greater certainty than we do.
“But that does not mean the Board throws up its hands and says it’s all too hard.
“On the contrary, the staff set out their view of the most likely central case outcome for the major economic variables, which is an important input in the Board’s discussions. And we also look at a range of scenarios to understand how the economic outlook might change and how policy may need to respond in those circumstances.
“Most importantly, if it becomes clear that the economy has evolved differently from our earlier expectations, and that difference is likely to endure, then we adjust the stance of policy, as was the case in February.”