INDIANAPOLIS — Projecting NFL Draft picks becomes easier after teams patch roster holes in free agency, which begins next week.
Team executives still tend to have a solid feel for the top of the draft coming out of the scouting combine, which concluded Sunday.
I’ve used insights from four of them — one general manager, two assistant GMs and one vice president of player personnel — to project the top 10 picks of the 2026 NFL Draft here.
Last year in this exercise, execs correctly predicted five of the first nine selections: Cam Ward to the Tennessee Titans at No. 1, Abdul Carter to the New York Giants at No. 3, Ashton Jeanty to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 6, Tetairoa McMillan to the Carolina Panthers at No. 8 and Kelvin Banks to the New Orleans Saints at No. 9. They also correctly slotted Mason Graham at No. 5 but got the team wrong after the Jacksonville Jaguars traded up.
The biggest whiff: Shedeur Sanders to the Cleveland Browns at No. 2 instead of No. 144 (there was debate over whether Sanders would crack the top 10).
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza was the consensus choice among the four execs this year. All had him going to Las Vegas at No. 1.
“The (edge) rushers, the running back and the quarterback will be somewhat consensus,” one of the execs predicted. “Everybody will have the receivers rated differently. The corners are a little bit of a mess. Six through 40 is going to be a crapshoot. You could have a guy at 40 getting picked seventh. But, again, someone has to be picked.”
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Mendoza was the execs’ consensus choice for the Raiders at No. 1.
“Unless they can trade out,” one said. “It’s amazing he’s the first pick in the draft.”
Would the Raiders move back?
“I’m not sure there is a player to trade up to get,” this exec said.
The Raiders’ new coach, Klint Kubiak, will install a run-oriented offense that requires less from the position. Mendoza isn’t seen as a generational talent. For those reasons, we might use pencil to write in this projection.
“I think everyone just assumes they go that way (with Mendoza),” the exec added.
How the Raiders feel is what matters most.
“I love everything about his game,” Raiders minority owner Tom Brady said of Mendoza on “Fox NFL Sunday” in mid-December, before his team had secured the top pick.
The traits Brady said he respected in Mendoza were traits Brady possessed as well: leadership, relatability to teammates, overcoming challenges, turning around a program that had not won at the highest level previously.
“I don’t think he’s surefire at all,” a veteran offensive coach who has studied all the quarterbacks in this draft said. “I like the Alabama guy (Ty Simpson) better.”
All things to consider over the coming weeks.
2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, Edge/LB, Ohio State
The Jets need a quarterback, but supply doesn’t meet demand here. Three execs had the Jets taking Reese. Another had them taking Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey.
“I do not see them passing up on a freakish athlete,” one of the execs projecting Reese here said.
What about Bailey?
“Bailey is not deficient as an athlete at all,” the exec said, “but Reese is a special athlete. Reese also feels like a little boom-or-bust. That seems like a Jets pick.”
Another exec said he thought Reese, who played off the ball and on the edge for the Buckeyes but said last week he views himself as an edge defender, would become the next Micah Parsons.
“He’s a traits guy who will be a consensus top edge rusher,” another exec said. “You have a defensive head coach (Aaron Glenn); they will think they can use him in multiple spots. Very similar to the guy the Giants took last year (Carter).”
Dallas tried to trade Parsons and a first-round pick to the Jets for Quinnen Williams before last season, according to Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. The Jets declined.
“Reese is all boom-or-bust to me,” an exec who did not vote in this survey said. “He may be great, but he may not make it at all. He doesn’t seem to process the game as fast.”
3. Arizona Cardinals: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
The Cardinals loaded up on defense in the draft and free agency last year, but it was difficult to tell, partly because of injuries.
“They need help up front because they cannot generate pressure, even after they spent in free agency,” one exec said.
Bailey could help address that deficiency.
“He’s really just a designated pass rusher who is kind of soft at the point of attack,” another exec said, the implication being that No. 3 could be early for such a player.
Another exec initially had the Cardinals drafting receiver Carnell Tate, who would give Arizona a downfield dimension that 2025 first-rounder Marvin Harrison Jr. might not. This exec later changed his selection to Bailey.
4. Tennessee Titans: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Two execs still had the Titans selecting Tate here. The other two had them taking Auburn defensive lineman Keldric Faulk. I went with Tate over Faulk after consulting a fifth exec, who said he didn’t see Faulk as a first-round talent.
“He’s too big, long and versatile with good character not to go in the top 10,” one of the execs slotting Faulk to the Titans said.
As a general rule, team builders think general managers who are early in the building process should not target wide receivers. But the thinking here is Tennessee has already invested considerable draft capital in its offensive line, and that Tate could help them support second-year quarterback Cam Ward.
“Tate is good,” another exec said. “He’s like A.J. Green, but more of a deep-ball threat, probably.”
Selecting for defense could also make sense for a team badly in need of pass-rush help while switching schemes under a new defensive-minded coach.
“They need receivers, I know that,” another exec said. “(New offensive coordinator Brian) Daboll will want an offensive player. They took (Malik) Nabers when he was with the Giants. That guy in this draft is Jordyn Tyson.”
The Titans could go in many directions, in other words.
5. New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
Three of four execs had the Giants taking Mauigoa to bolster an offensive line that needs help in multiple spots, including right tackle.
It would be a very logical way to go in John Harbaugh’s first draft with the team.
The one exec projecting a receiver to the Giants cast a dissenting vote.
“They need weapons for the quarterback,” said the exec, who opted for USC receiver Makai Lemon. “The other guy (Nabers) is hurt. They are probably going to lose the Kentucky slot (Wan’Dale Robinson) in free agency.”
An exec who questioned New England’s selection of left tackle Will Campbell at No. 4 last year thought the offensive tackles atop this draft were safer picks.
“The New England guy was limited physically,” this exec said. “These guys (Mauigoa and Spencer Fano) are not.”
6. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
Execs had three different offensive linemen landing in this slot. All five of the Browns’ primary starting offensive linemen from 2025, along with a few reserves, are set to hit free agency.
“They need O-line bad,” one exec said.
Is there one worthy of the sixth pick?
“No,” the exec said, “but I’ll stick one in there.”
Georgia’s Monroe Freeling was his choice, joining Mauigoa and Fano as projections for the Browns. None of the other execs had Freeling in the top 10, while two had Fano at No. 10.
“Fano is the next-best tackle if Mauigoa is gone,” another exec said. “Can play guard and tackle, and has very good analytics, which Cleveland will value.”
On Monday, after executives were polled, the Browns acquired Tytus Howard from the Texans and signed him to a three-year, $63 million extension. If he slots in at right tackle, the No. 6 pick might need to start on the left side. Mauigoa and Fano have played primarily on the right side, though Fano started 11 games on the left as a true freshman in 2023. Freeling played left tackle for Georgia.
The exec projecting Mauigoa to Cleveland had no offensive linemen selected among the top five.
“Whoever they see as the best tackle available,” this exec predicted.
7. Washington Commanders: Rueben Bain, Edge, Miami
Two of the four execs had Tate landing here, but he’s already off the board in this exercise. Bain and inside linebacker Sonny Styles were the other projected picks.
“I could see Bain going as high as 2 to the Jets,” one exec said. “He reminds me of Terrell Suggs, someone who can bring that play style to your defense — a heavy-handed, old-school player who is the most physical of the edge guys.”
Opinions on Styles were mixed.
“Styles is an inside ‘backer, a Will, not a rusher like Reese,” one said.
Another countered that Styles projects as a pass rusher at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds.
“(Commanders coach Dan) Quinn has a history of taking rushers,” another exec said. “He coached Dante Fowler at Florida and signed him in Atlanta. He drafted Vic Beasley and Takk McKinley in the first round (also with the Falcons). I could see him taking a rusher.”
8. New Orleans Saints: Makai Lemon, WR, USC
Three of four execs had the Saints drafting a running back or receiver, but there was no consensus that Lemon would be the pick.
“I’m hearing wideout on them,” the exec slotting Arizona State’s Tyson to New Orleans said.
All the execs had Tate gone by this point; some see him as a smooth slot receiver in the mold of current Saints receiver Chris Olave, whose future with the team is in question entering the final year of his rookie contract.
“Lemon is a very explosive receiver,” the exec slotting him to the Saints said, “but they could go anywhere. I think they could go (Jeremiyah) Love over Lemon, depending on what they do in free agency.”
9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Three of four execs had the Chiefs selecting Love. The other went with Bain.
“They need a back, and they need to run the ball until their quarterback is fully ready,” one of the execs projecting Love to the Chiefs said.
The serious knee injury Patrick Mahomes suffered in December highlighted the risks associated with the quarterback carrying so much of the offense. The Chiefs’ running game lacked explosion last season, and Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco are both hitting free agency.
“They need wideout, too,” another exec said.
Bain’s addition to the defense was the outlier pick.
10. Cincinnati Bengals: Peter Woods, DT, Clemson
Execs see Cincy as a team torn between protecting Joe Burrow and fortifying a struggling defense.
“They have to go O-line — please, for all of us,” one exec said.
With Fano gone in this scenario, the choice might come down to Freeling, the offensive tackle from Georgia, or whichever front-seven defender is highest on the Bengals’ board.
“Woods is a really good player,” one of the execs said. “I would say the Bengals are taking someone like him or Sonny Styles, the inside ‘backer. I think there is some upside there.”