There was certainly a clear divide last AFL season between the top and bottom halves of the ladder. What that focus overlooked, however, was how much volatility there had been in the top eight itself between seasons.

The teams which finished the regular rounds No. 1 and 2 in 2024 didn’t even make finals in 2025. And there were four changes to the top eight overall. Last year’s minor premier Adelaide had finished 15th the previous season.

Now there’s a wildcard round and effectively a final 10, can you really say still definitively that any team isn’t some sort of September chance? But premiership chance? That’s a whole different ball game. And we’re about harsh realities here.

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That said, one thing Brisbane’s last two flag triumphs have underlined for me is that while it’s good to deliver a high standard consistently, it’s the highest standard delivered at the right moment which will ultimately win the prize. And the bottom line in both 2024 and last year was that the Lions’ best was significantly better than anyone else’s.

As far as senior lists go, that’s again the case in 2026. So in nominating my “teams who CAN win the flag”, I’m looking for those sides I think are best-placed to find a gear as powerful as Brisbane. It’s pretty select company.

Some apologies first. Yes, I think Hawthorn and Collingwood should be thereabouts. But the Hawks’ midfield stocks worry me. They failed to land Zach Merrett. I’m still a bit bemused why James Worpel was let go. And Will Day’s long-term injury could be a disaster.

The Pies? They’re old, we know. They’re reliable, though, and as they showed in Adelaide in a qualifying final, have big performances in them. Ultimately, however, given the list demographics, I still think Collingwood will need a lot going right for them on the luck and durability front. Perhaps a tad too much.

Fremantle, too, I think is very capable, and really found its mojo last year after a poor start. Perhaps my only reservations are still a lack of dare and scoring power, and the mental toughness required for a WA team to win big finals on the road. Maybe in a year or two for the Dockers.

Okay, so who CAN win the flag? There’s five candidates, I reckon. Here’s a rundown, in order of probability.

Brisbane

We always knew Brisbane had the talent. But the last couple of years have underlined ridiculous depth and massive improvements in their mental strength and resilience. These days, the Lions win anywhere and when it matters. And frankly, the stockpile of talent is just scary. You know the names; Neale, McCluggage, Andrews, Dunkley, Ashcroft x 2, Zorko, Bailey, Rayner etc, etc. But now there’s also a very handy ruckman in Sam Draper, a star key forward in Oscar Allen. Then consider the guys who didn’t play a part in last year’s triumph, the likes of Keidean Coleman, Lincoln McCarthy and Tom Doedee. Brisbane has cover everywhere. And a calm and level-headed coach in Chris Fagan whose players clearly love him. I feel like this version of the Lions is an even more likely bet to win a flag hat-trick than its famous ancestors of 2001-03 or Hawthorn in 2013-15.

Can the Lions win a third straight premiership in 2026? Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty ImagesGeelong

How can you not have the Cats in this list? Sure, they picked a bad day to turn in probably their worst performance of last year, but their phenomenal consistency simply keeps them in contention year after year. And these days with less hand-wringing about their age given the top two in their best and fairest last season (Max Holmes and Bailey Smith) are 23 and 25 respectively. Ollie Dempsey is 23, Gryan Miers 26. And yes, Jeremy Cameron and Patrick Dangerfield are at the other end of the age spectrum, but look at their individual returns last season. I suspect James Worpel might be an underrated addition to the midfield mix in 2026, too. The Cats are well-coached by Chris Scott, consistently get their man management right and health and fitness marks reached, and yes, they’re going to be stinging again from now two near-misses in the past two years. So why not third time lucky?

Bailey Smith in action during the 2025 AFL Grand Final. Cameron Spencer/AFL Photos/via Getty ImagesGold Coast

I appreciate there’s significant risk in this assessment given the Suns’ finals rawness. But that finals win against Fremantle in Perth was heady stuff indeed. I think Damien Hardwick’s group might be quick learners. And talent? Well, who wouldn’t be impressed by a midfield roll call of Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Touk Miller and now Christian Petracca. Not to mention the considerable appeal of a Ben King-Jamarra Ugle-Hagan forward tandem if the latter can get his act together. It’s also the fact some of the Suns’ very best players, the likes of Bailey Humphrey, Ethan Read, Jed Walter and Mac Andrew, as good as they already are, still have so much room for improvement. 2025 was a very solid foundation for Gold Coast. They won 16 games, lost only three by more than four goals, and were one of just three teams to finish top six for both points scored and conceded. And that’s a very solid base from which to have a real genuine crack at something pretty special in 2026.

Christian Petracca is an A-grade addition to the Suns in 2026. Albert Perez/Getty ImagesAdelaide

Finals failure can be a catalyst for shocking overreactions about a team’s prospects the following season. I suspect there’ll plenty of people jumping off the Crows’ flag bandwagon on the strength of last September’s straight sets exit. I’m not one of them. I think there’s lots to like about Adelaide these days. The Crows were top three for both attack and defence last season, number one for applied pressure, number one for territory. Indeed, they were ranked top four in no fewer than 22 of 32 statistical categories measured by Champion Data. The Crows are in a demographic sweet spot, mid-table now for age and experience. And besides obvious guns like skipper Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine and key forwards like Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker, there’s a lot of players who have come on rapidly and could keep getting better still, Josh Worrell, Dan Curtin, Josh Rachele typical of that group. Last year was a great opportunity for the Crows which went begging. I think they might learn plenty from it.

Jordan Dawson celebrates a goal against the Hawks. Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty ImagesSydney

Bottom line for the Swans last year was missing out on finals having been runner-up the previous season. But this was also a finish with a big asterisk beside it, namely an at-times comical run with injury to key players which ruined Dean Cox’s first season as coach before it had even begun. Yet as the names came back, so did the Swans, in the end finishing a respectable 10th with a winning record. They won eight of their last 11 games, have a far, far healthier group this season’s eve, and there’s real excitement about what Charlie Curnow can do up forward alongside a fit Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey. Not to mention having a full midfield contingent once more, Errol Gulden and Callum Mills both having missed half a season. There’s an addition I think can have a big impact, too, in former Sun goalsneak Malcolm Rosas, a smart and savvy small forward I think can really help the Swans go further. I think their 2024 best is very attainable again. Which has to give them a serious chance of going all the way.

Charlie Curnow in action for the Swans during preseason. Adam Trafford/AFL Photos via Getty Images