Labor is on track to win the Nightcliff by-election, taking the Greens’ first and only seat held in the Northern Territory parliament.

ABC Elections Analyst Casey Briggs said at the close of counting on Saturday night, Labor’s Ed Smelt led by 141 votes after preferences, and was likely to win.

See the latest results on the ABC Election page.

It puts him ahead of Suki Dorras-Walker from the Greens, independent Phil Scott, and Anjan Paudel from the CLP. 

Briggs said the Greens would require around three quarters of the remaining votes to win, which was highly unlikely to occur.

The Greens had been trying to hold onto the marginal seat they won from Labor by just 36 votes in the 2024 Northern Territory election.

A person, white, wearing green shirt and pants, smiling, surrounded by people wearing green 'The Greens' shirts.

Kat McNamara, pictured here celebrating the win on election night in 2024. (ABC News: Andie Smith)

The by-election was triggered last month by the resignation of Greens politician Kat McNamara for health reasons. 

McNamara became the first Green to win a seat in the NT parliament.

A woman, smiling widely, sitting in front of a microphone inside a radio studio, flanked by two men.

Ed Smelt, Suki Dorras-Walker and Phil Scott take part in a debate hosted by ABC Radio Darwin. (ABC News: Aidan Daly)

On Saturday night, Mr Smelt arrived at Labor’s by-election party to raucous applause from the party faithful.

He delivered a triumphant speech, though he did not claim victory.

“There is still some counting to go, but we’re ahead,” Mr Smelt said.

“The most important thing is to thank everyone who supported me.”

Ed Hugs a woman at a bar, while supporters cheer

Ed Smelt arrived at Labor’s by-election party to raucous applause from the party faithful. March 7, 2026 (ABC News: Jack Hislop)

Mr Smelt said his practical approach to local issues had resonated with voters.

“People warmed to my experience on council and as an engineer,” he said.

“The key thing was focusing on local issues and listening to what people wanted. It’s about local roads, local schools, our hospitals and what people need in their everyday lives.”

The Greens held a by-election party at a brewery in Coconut Grove, where the mood was positive midway through the count.

Ms Dorras-Walker said the Greens were the outsiders coming into the by-election, and she was proud of the party’s efforts.

Suki Dorras-Walker speaks to someone

Suki Dorras-Walker said she was proud of the effort by the NT Greens. (ABC News: Dane Hirst)

“We are pushing Labor to really think about their environmental policies,” she said.

“We are seeing them coming out with things like a moratorium on Lee Point, talking about whether Middle Arm actually stacks up — that is because Green pressure actually works.”

Earlier this week, Labor changed its position on the controversial Lee Point housing development, after supporting the development during its eight years in government up to 2024.

“We have [changed position] and we’re very proud to do so,” Mr Smelt said.

“That was the feedback we had from the community, was that we didn’t get that right in the last term of government.”

After weeks of doorknocking, all candidates said community safety was one of the major issues in the electorate, along with the environment. 

Nightcliff is traditionally a Labor seat, with the party holding it for 23 years before McNamara won it from former Labor chief minister Natasha Fyles in 2024. 

Counters sit at tables counting piles of ballots while scrutineers in yellow vests watch on

Votes are being counted under the watchful eyes of scrutineers in the Nightcliff by-election on March 3, 2026. (ABC News: Dane Hirst)

Further counting will happen on Monday, including a check count of all ballots counted on Saturday night. 

Briggs said given the size of the margin, if an error was discovered it could have a significant impact on the size of Labor’s lead.

If the result was confirmed, Mr Smelt would become Labor’s fifth member in parliament, and the only one representing a Darwin seat.

Lower voter turnout

There were 907 votes cast on Saturday, 2,657 people cast early votes, and 441 postal votes were issued, of which about 160 are being counted tonight.

That would put voter turnout at under 67 per cent, given some postal votes will not be returned. 

In comparison, voter turnout in the 2024 NT election was 76.6 per cent.

Three tents at the markets, including a red Labor tent, a Greens tent and an orange CLP tent. Trees are in foreground.

Candidates have been campaigning at the Nightcliff markets ahead of the by-election. (ABC News: Pete Garnish)

Election donations declared

The NT Electoral Commission released its updated donations disclosure records on Friday, revealing more than $100,000 worth of gifts and donations to the four candidates vying for the seat. 

Three former Labor chief ministers, Clare Martin, Paul Henderson and Michael Gunner, donated to Labor candidate Ed Smelt, while businesses Paspaley Pearling Co and KPMG donated to the Country Liberal Party. 

All up, the Greens collected the most funding, with more than $43,000, compared with $31,000 for Labor, $23,000 for the CLP and more than $12,000 for independent Phil Scott.