Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 4 (9) Miss Slipstream
Next Best: Race 8 (9) Dirty Old Town
Value Bet: Race 9 (9) A Samurai Mind
Best: Race 7 (6) Highland Bling
Turf Talk
Clear and warm weather is forecast for race day and warm days in the lead up so expect the meeting to be run on a Good 4 rated track.
The rail returns to the True position for today’s meeting.
Expecting an even surface on the course proper today.
Stats That Matter
Stuart Gower brings two runners to this meeting and is in good form, training 15 winners in his last 100 starters returning a POT of +39.6%.
Tim Clark isn’t a jockey that often ventures to SA but arrives with a strong book of rides and good recent form, riding 22 winners from his last 100 rides returning a POT of +24.7%.
Race by Race Overview
Race 1
(3) Mathematician was ultra impressive when winning on debut, he was well in the market in a stronger race Saturday, but the stable opted for this race instead. He is a short price but looks a progressive type.
(5) Shocap resumes here, she was a winner 1st up last prep and then tackled a black type race before a spell, capable of firing fresh off the back of some handy trials.
A small field may suit (4) Wiltshire Square as she is a chance to settle closer to the lead in favourable conditions so may be an improver.
(6) Bardigrub also looks likely to settle forwards in the run and looks to step up in grade having won her maiden last time and form from that race was recently franked.
Selections:
3 Mathematician
5 Shocap
4 Wiltshire Square
6 Bardigrub
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(2) Alaa Plenty rises in grade today having been a last start winner, but he gets enough favours here to suggest he is capable of handling the rise in level, in good form and gets an even surface so should be running on.
(1) Purfect Line had been threatening for a win for some time and got the breakthrough win at Kingscote last start, he may be able to go on with it now with some confidence.
(5) Flirt maps as one of the likely leaders in the race and is in good form having won 2 of 3 runs this prep, can give them something to catch.
(3) Power Of Time gets a favourable race map on speed, has confidence now off the back of a last start win and can progress.
Selections:
2 Alaa Plenty
1 Purfect Line
5 Flirt
3 Power Of Time
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
(4) Brown Nose Day Gal has found some super form with a recent pair of wins prior to a pair of placings; she was tough last start from a wide position and in a race with moderate speed she maps much better today.
(8) Zarkana is usually hitting the line strongly in runs and is down in grade on recent starts, suited rising up to the 1600m.
(5) Flaming Eyes hasn’t missed the top 3 in her last 4 runs and looks suited coming back to the 1600m trip where she has a strong record (4:1-2-1).
(9) Beachbarbeckons found a good level in his debut campaign but hasn’t managed to recapture that form this time in work, he looks a runner that is ready for a rise in trip and the mile may suit.
Selections:
4 Brown Nose Day Gal
8 Zarkana
5 Flaming Eyes
9 Beachbarbeckons
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
(9) Miss Slipstream has always shown good talent but took a few starts to win her maiden, she did that in impressive fashion last start at Murray Bridge winning easily by some margin, she rises in level today but looks capable of progressing.
(1) Pantoja has been solid in 2 runs here in SA, he drops slightly in grade from those runs and coming in here fresh he could be suited.
(12) Runaway Belle is at peak fitness 3rd up into this prep and is down slightly in grade. She jumps from an inside barrier and may settle closer in the run.
(6) Smashing Action has an awkward barrier to manage from out wide but has good early speed and may get the chance to cross and be prominent.
Selections:
9 Miss Slipstream
1 Pantoja
12 Runaway Belle
6 Smashing Action
Suggested Bet: 9 Miss Slipstream (Win)
Race 5
(6) Somehwere Soon has found super form producing 2 wins in a row gunning for her 3rd today, she was hitting the line well last start so looks likely to appreciate a rise in distance to the 2000m, hard to knock her in this set up.
Stablemate (3) Classy Claret has also found consistent form, he took a step up in distance last start but feel he is better suited back at the 2000m where he has won 2/2 previously, looks likely to get a favourable race map.
(8) Savsonic is suited at the 2000m and she is coming down slightly in grade today so this race should set up well for her if she can overcome a wide barrier.
(10) Thinkingnintynine maps as the likely leader of the race and gets in light at the weights so can give these something to chase and may prove hard to catch if given a soft time out in front.
Selections:
6 Somewhere Soon
3 Classy Claret
8 Savsonic
10 Thinkingnintynine
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
The feature sprint race of today looks likely to have a decent amount of early speed in it. If so, that could potentially set up well for (1) Prairie Flower who is a get back, run on type that has been running well in similar races of late, she comes into this fresh and some recent jump outs have been very good, she gets an ideal set up to show her best today.
(7) Thunder Shoc ran well last start rising up to Listed grade for the first time, she sets up similar in this low at the weights and maps to be positive in the run, expect if she can put in a repeat performance she can go close again.
(4) Lingani is at peak fitness now 3rd up into her prep where she has previously performed strongly (3:2-0-0) expect to see her hitting the line strongly late, a softer track would improve her chances.
(10) Celerity is taking a step up in level for this but did rate highly in her last start run, she is light at the weights and maps well from the inside barrier, gets every chance to show her best.
Selections:
1 Prairie Flower
7 Thunder Shoc
4 Lingani
10 Celerity
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Feels like (6) Highland Bling has been well timed to peak in this Grand Final run as he comes into the race at peak fitness 3rd up off the back of a strong performance in the Lord Reims Stakes. He looks likely to appreciate the 3200m trip at this point now and while he does have a wide barrier, it should prove little concern as he has plenty of time to cross.
(2) Newfoundland comes in to this race fit now from 2 recent runs, he put in a bad performance last start but had excuses there, is a runner proven to see out the 3200m trip having run 2nd over it previously and expecting a positive ride for him which may suit as the race does look likely to be run at a moderate tempo.
(3) Eventually looks a big price for the runner who was the winner of the traditional lead up race the Lord Reims Stakes and has won 3 of her last 4 runs. She was the runner hitting the line best in the Lord Reims, so suggests the rise in distance today should prove no issues.
(1) Berkeley Square rates highly in this field based on his Victorian form, with that rating though he has been given a big weight and will have to defy some recent history to carry that weight and win over this distance, needs his best efforts for this despite being down slightly in level.
Selections:
6 Highland Bling
2 Newfoundland
3 Eventually
1 Berkeley Square
Suggested Bet: 6 Highland Bling (Win)
Race 8
(9) Dirty Old Town is flying having won 3 in a row. He gets back up to the 1600m where he won 2 starts ago and draws well from barrier 1, every chance to continue this good form in what is an ideal set up.
(1) Shoma caught lots of interest when making his Australian debut at Sandown, he has placed at Group 1 level in NZ and looks talented, finished 2nd at Sandown but may have taken plenty out of that run and is likely fitter 2nd up now.
(8) Uptown Monk impressed when winning easily last start, takes a sharp step up in level here but clearly has talent and may progress quickly.
(3) Bootlegger ran a big race putting it up to Dirty Old Town last start, he drops in weight for this today and maps similar as last time, can figure again with the right run.
Selections:
9 Dirty Old Town
1 Shoma
8 Uptown Monk
3 Bootlegger
Suggested Bet: 9 Dirty Old Town (Win)
Race 9
Was impressed by the resuming run of (9) A Samurai Mind who was hitting the line strongly over a sprint trip that may not have been his ideal distance. Fitter now 2nd up and rising to the 1600m should suit, he can improve off that 1st up run and progress.
Don’t want to be losing on (6) Sir Kingsford if he can run a big race here today, looks likely to find the lead softly and could prove hard to catch fitter 2nd up today given he has a super 2nd up record (7:3-0-1).
(1) Air Assault gave a sight in his last run at Flemington but was run over the top of there, this is a drop in grade, and he returns to his home track where he has a super record.
(4) Miss Aria gets into this race at peak fitness 3rd up and maps for a soft run from an inside barrier, can threaten down slightly in grade here.
Selections:
9 A Samurai Mind
6 Sir Kingsford
1 Air Assault
4 Miss Aria
Suggested Bet: 9 A Samurai Mind (EW) & 6 Sir Kingsford (Small Win)