India take on Chinese Taipei in their last group stage match of the AFC Women’s Asian Cup on Tuesday with their hopes of qualifying for the quarterfinals, and by extension, the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup hinging on the result of this game.
India have lost both their games so far at the Asian Cup. The opening game was a heartbreak with Vietnam scoring a winner in second-half stoppage time to win 2-1. It was followed by Amelia Valverde’s team being handed a drubbing by Japan, as they won 11-0.
Valverde will have to revitalise her charges and ensure that they are able to play their best game of the tournament at the Western Sydney Stadium on Tuesday evening. If Vietnam don’t lose against Japan, India will be knocked out of the tournament right there, so they will be hoping for that favour from the Japanese.
What if India win by two or more goals?
Should Japan beat Vietnam, the math is simple for India. If India win by two goals or more against Chinese Taipei, they’ll finish second in their group and will go on the face China in the quarterfinals in Perth on Saturday.
How will India finish second with a two-goal win, despite that 11-0 loss? Classifications within groups in AFC competitions are based on head-to-head records, in case teams are tied on points.
So, if India beat Chinese Taipei by two goals or more and Vietnam lose to Japan, then India, Vietnam and Chinese Taipei will all be tied on three points. In that case, results between the tied teams will be considered. So, considering a 2-0 win for India, they’d have scored three goals and conceded one in games between the teams who would have tied on points. Chinese Taipei would have scored one and conceded two and would finish bottom, while Vietnam would have scored two and conceded two, and would finish third. In that case, Vietnam would qualify for the knockouts too, as they would then be the best third-placed team in the competition, out of the three groups.
What if India win by one goal?
This is where math becomes slightly more complex. If India win 1-0, they’d be out of the tournament unless Japan beat Vietnam by 11 goals or more, but if they win by a one-goal margin having scored two or more goals, they’d qualify for the quarterfinals if Japan win by any margin.
That is because in the case of a 1-0 win, assuming Japan don’t win by 11 or more against Vietnam, India would be tied on points with Vietnam and Chinese Taipei and would also have the same goal difference and goals scored as Vietnam in matches between the three tied teams. So, the next consideration would be overall goal difference, where India would be behind Vietnam.
If India win by one goal by score two or more goals, so 2-1, 3-2 and so on, they’d qualify for the quarterfinals because in that case, the tie-break between the three tied teams would be in India’s favour, based on goals scored in the matches between the tied teams.
India vs Chinese Taipei will start at 2:30 PM IST. You can follow the match right here on ESPN.