Which MLB Team Will Be The Biggest Surprise Of 2026?

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Paul Skenes (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

As part of the lead-up to the start of the 2026 MLB season, we asked the Baseball America staff to weigh in with crystal ball predictions on a number of burning topics such as offseason winners, breakout players, top storylines and more.

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Check out our answers for the most surprising 2026 team below and stay tuned all this week for more MLB predictions and preview coverage.

Ben Badler — Athletics

I want to like the Athletics more, but I wish they had made better moves to upgrade their rotation this offseason. Still, the young nucleus of their lineup is strong, and if they want to be bold, they have the trade chips in their farm system to make in-season moves for starting pitchers. It’s also possible that Gage Jump could factor into the big league picture this season, and while it’s unlikely that 2026 first-round pick Jamie Arnold will have an ascension along the lines of Trey Yesavage, he’s talented enough to move quickly through the system if the A’s want to hit the accelerator with him.

Jesús Cano — Athletics

No one ever really pays attention to the Athletics unless it’s a headline about Vegas. In 2026, however, the team is in a prime position to see its first playoff appearance since 2020. The team has invested in giving extensions to Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom, who is the highest-paid player in A’s history. In Nick Kurtz’s Rookie of the Year campaign, he showed flashes of being one of the best hitters in baseball, and the A’s should extend him before his price rises. The rotation will have three veterans in Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale, with a plethora of young, talented pitchers auditioning for the last two spots. Luis Morales and Jacob Lopez are the initial frontrunners. Those who don’t make it have a home in the bullpen. In addition, the A’s added Jeff McNeil to fill the hole at second base, while reinforcing the bullpen with arms like Scott Barlow and Mark Leiter Jr. Most importantly, GM David Forst was able to enhance this team without giving up any top prospects, giving them flexibility to have more trade chips at the deadline.

Mark Chiarelli — Cincinnati Reds

The Reds snuck into the playoffs in 2025, where they were a footnote in the Dodgers’ World Series run, yet most projection systems seem to think they’ll finish below .500 and fourth in the NL Central this year. But I see a lot of elements of a team that could outperform expectations. Cincinnati has a true superstar in Elly De La Cruz, who is healthy after a quad injury hampered him in the second half. The Reds got him some lineup protection in Eugenio Suarez. Plus, the club has popular breakout picks on both sides of the ball in Chase Burns and Sal Stewart, plus a deep rotation and a Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona. Are they a perfect team? No, and they may need to win more with run suppression than run production, but the NL Central is wide open. 

Carlos Collazo — Cleveland Guardians

I expect the Athletics to be a popular pick, and because of that I’m not sure if they will even count as a surprise team. It seems like the Guardians are viewed as a bottom 10 team entering the season, but I have a lot of belief in this homegrown core. I could see players like Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana making a big impact and helping keep Cleveland in contention all year. 

J.J. Cooper — Pittsburgh Pirates

In 2025, Spencer Horowitz was the only Pirates hitter who produced at a league average or better level. There are some legitimate worries about the Pirates’ team defense, but adding Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe and top prospect Konnor Griffin should significantly improve the worst offense in baseball last year. Pair that with a respectable rotation fronted by the best pitcher in the National League, and the Pirates should contend for a playoff spot.

Ian Cundall — Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates finished last in the National League Central in 2025, but they will look to push for a playoff spot in 2026 after revamping their offense in the offseason. Three of the top five hitters in their projected lineup were acquired in the offseason, and there’s a chance Konnor Griffin could either break camp or come up early in the season to further improve the lineup. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff is young but promising, with Paul Skenes anchoring it. They have upside with Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft and more reinforcements coming with Jared Jones likely back at some point early in the summer and prospects like Antwone Kelly and Hunter Barco in play during the 2026 season.

Matt Eddy — Kansas City Royals

The Braves and Orioles are the most likely teams to go from sub-.500 records in 2025 to the postseason this year, but the team that catches my eye is the Royals. Kansas City is the paradigm for low-to-mid-revenue clubs. The Royals drafted and developed a franchise player in Bobby Witt Jr. and then stretched financially to extend his contract. The organization cultivated the best versions of key regulars such as Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron. The Royals took big swings in the draft—Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen—that could pay off as soon as this season. Unlike some other smaller-market teams, Kansas City is active with free agents and trading for veterans. No team bats 1.000 when acquiring players outside the organization, but the Royals added No. 1 starter Cole Ragans in a trade and have supplemented their roster with OBP (Jonathan India, Isaac Collins), rotation pieces (Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha) and bullpen depth (Lucas Erceg, Matt Strahm, Nick Mears) with their activity. Now, the Royals are positioned to compete in an up-for-grabs AL Central.

Josh Norris — Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh has a ton of pitching in its stable. You know the names: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Jared Jones on his way back. Now, they appear ready to give those guys some run support. Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna and Brandon Lowe were imported over the offseason, as was prospect Jhostynxon Garcia. Oh, and the No. 1 prospect in baseball, shortstop Konnor Griffin, should arrive quickly, if not on Opening Day. Once that group coalesces, it could make for a feisty bunch this summer in the NL Central. 

Geoff Pontes — Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have arguably the most well-rounded team in the NL Central with a talented and high-powered pitching staff with several stars such as Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott all coming into their own in 2025 with X-factors like Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder presenting upside for 2026. The Reds have the prerequisite pitching depth both in their starting and relief corps that allows teams to maintain quality over a full season. Their lineup also looks to be coming into its own with Elly De La Cruz entering his fourth MLB season, Matt McLain healthy and the return of slugger Eugenio Suarez. The emergence of top prospect Sal Stewart has been a revelation as well, looking like the heir to franchise icon Joey Votto at first base. In a Central division that’s been wide open at times in recent years, the Reds are my pick to win the division and march back into the playoffs.