The Athletic has live coverage of Italy vs. Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic 2026.
HOUSTON — Let’s hope this time, Mark DeRosa didn’t misspeak.
“I expect it to be, like, one of the best games of all time,” the Team USA manager said.
Of course, DeRosa was talking about Sunday’s World Baseball Classic semifinal between the United States and the Dominican Republic.
Based on the teams’ respective WBC performances thus far, the Dominicans would appear to be the heavy favorites.
Except they’re up against Paul Skenes.
Among the Dominican regulars, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have never faced the reigning National League Cy Young award winner.
Six other likely starters for the D.R. — Ketel Marte, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Junior Caminero, Austin Wells and Gerardo Perdomo — are a combined 0 for 21.
The only Dominican regular with any hits off Skenes is Julio Rodríguez, who is 3 for 6 with two doubles.
Small sample sizes, to be sure. But if any mortal can stop the dominant Dominican offense, it would appear to be the former Air Force Academy and LSU pitcher who, in his first WBC start against Mexico, took the mound to the theme song from “Top Gun.”
Skenes in that game threw four scoreless innings, allowing one hit, striking out seven, while walking one. Still just 23, he has yet to waver as a professional, yet to be fazed by any circumstance. It’s almost inconceivable he will crack Sunday, even though the crowd in Miami is almost certain to be pro-Dominican.
“I expect to be the away team, for sure,” Team USA center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong said Friday night in his postgame interview on Fox after Team USA’s 5-3 victory over Canada in the WBC quarterfinal.
“But that’s what we’re looking forward to. We want the electricity, the energy of the crowd. That’s why we’re throwing Mr. Skenes out there for whatever he’s going to give. It’s going to be good.”
The way the U.S. offense is going, it had better be.
Team USA scored a combined 24 runs in its first two games against Brazil and Great Britain. Since then, it has combined for 16 against Mexico, Italy and Canada, flailing at times even against unheralded minor-league pitchers.
The D.R., by contrast, has scored 51 runs in five games. The team’s 14 home runs already tie Mexico’s 2009 total for the most in a single WBC. And its joyous, rollicking, bat-flipping vibe is the talk of the tournament.
Team USA has yet to dive into the data on the D.R. hitters.
“I’m not going to lie,” pitching coach Andy Pettitte said. “I’ve been underwater trying to get ready for all of our games.”
However, familiarity with their major-league stars should only help, particularly since Skenes has already had some success against most of them.
Skenes was not present for the Canada game; he flew ahead of Team USA to Miami. Insert, if you must, a punch line about DeRosa again, assuming the U.S. had punched its ticket to the semifinal.
In truth, the idea was for Skenes to get proper rest. The rest of the team flew to Miami after beating Canada and was expected to arrive around 4 a.m. (ET) Saturday.
Pettitte said he spoke with Skenes before the pitcher’s departure. Not surprisingly, Skenes made it clear he wanted the ball. The U.S. victory over Canada ensured he would get that chance.
The pitch limit for the semifinal and final will be 95. Both Pettitte and DeRosa said they expected Skenes to be more in the 75-80 range. Against Mexico, he threw 60. And remember, according to the baseball calendar, it’s still the middle of spring training.
The starter for the D.R. will be right-hander Luis Severino, a better draw for Team USA than Cristopher Sánchez, who threw five scoreless innings Friday in the Dominicans’ 10-0 mercy-rule victory over Korea.
Severino is vulnerable to left-handed hitters, whose career .739 OPS against him is 84 points higher than right-handers’ .655. Against Canada, DeRosa started five left-handed hitters — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Roman Anthony, Brice Turang and Crow-Armstrong — plus switch-hitter Cal Raleigh.
Team USA’s other catcher, Will Smith, bats right-handed, but DeRosa might prefer him to Raleigh, who caught Skenes’ first start. Raleigh is 0 for 9 with five strikeouts and four walks. He also had a critical passed ball Friday night after going without one the entire 2025 regular season.
The only other question for DeRosa might be whether to play the left-handed Gunnar Henderson at third base over the right-handed Alex Bregman. Such a move would appear unlikely, even though Henderson is 5 for 10 and Bregman is 2 for 11, albeit with five walks to Henderson’s none.
DeRosa has pushed back on whether he has an “A” lineup and “B” lineup, saying he believes in all 14 of his position players. But after Friday night’s win, he also said, “I don’t see any crazy changes taking place. We’ll roll with the dudes.”
To beat the D.R., the Team USA dudes can’t turn into the Pittsburgh Pirates, whose feeble offense left Skenes with a 10-10 record last season even though he led the majors with a 1.97 ERA. Yet, Skenes alone changes the dynamic of this matchup.
“I like any game that Paul Skenes pitches,” Team USA captain Aaron Judge said. “It’s just incredible stuff. Watching him work on his craft the past couple of weeks has been incredible.
“Seeing him in that game against Mexico, where it’s an electric environment, he just toed the slab and went out and took care of business. It was really impressive.”
And it was only the prelude.
Judge, who has played in World Series games at Yankee Stadium, said the Mexico game, “was probably the best environment I’ve played in … a lot of fun, a lot of chanting, they’re up standing on their feet, USA, Mexico, kind of going back and forth. It was an absolute blast.”
The crowd in Miami figures to be even louder, an “unreal environment,” in DeRosa’s estimation, “pretty crazy” in Harper’s.
When Team USA played in the semifinals in Miami in 2023, the crowd support for Cuba wasn’t nearly what it will be on Sunday for the Dominican Republic. And in the final against Japan, the U.S. was effectively the home team.
Skenes, at this stage of his career, has yet to have a nickname stick. Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja on X) suggested “Paul Bearer.” But on Sunday, Skenes will take the mound with the opportunity to craft an even more descriptive moniker.
How does “The Silencer” sound?