By Tony FairbairnAryna Sabalenka [1] v Elena Rybakina [3]H2H: Sabalenka leads 8-7INDIAN WELLS, USA – Aryna Sabalenka aims to end her poor record in finals as she takes on Elena Rybakina in the Indian Wells final.

 

 

Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Elena Rybakina [3] H2H & Match Fundamentals

It was another professional performance from Aryna Sabalenka as the world number one defeated Linda Noskova to reach the Indian Wells final. The top seed is yet to win the title at California and is now hoping that she can break her duck this year as she aims to prove that she can turn up in the big moments. Standing in Sabalenka’s way of the title is Elena Rybakina in a rematch of the Australian Open final after the Kazakh defeated Elina Svitolina in straight sets.

Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Elena Rybakina [3]     H2H: Sabalenka leads 8-7     Indian Wells 2026   Indian Wells, USA         Hard (O) Prize Money: $612,340/$1,511,380First on Stadium One (18:00 GMT) Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required

Both players have looked comfortable throughout the tournament and have proven why they are in the final.

Aryna Sabalenka [1] route to the final

R1: BYE

R2: Himeno Sakatsume [Q] 6-4 6-2

R3: Jaqueline Cristian 6-4 6-1

R4: Naomi Osaka [16] 6-2 6-4

QF: Victoria Mboko [10] 7-6(0) 6-4

SF: Linda Noskova [14] 6-3 6-4

Elena Rybakina [3] route to the final

R1: BYE

R2: Hailey Baptiste 7-6(5) 2-6 6-2

R3: Marta Kostyuk [28] 6-4 6-4

R4: Sonay Kartal 6-4 4-3 RET

QF: Jessica Pegula [5] 6-1 7-6(4)

SF: Elina Svitolina [9] 7-5 6-4

 

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (Last 52 Weeks)H2H:Aryna Sabalenka (WR 1)     Elena Rybakina (WR 3)   Tournament Previous BestFinal (2023, 2025)       Champion (2023)    1st Serve Return Points Won %3834.4Return Points Won %45.843Break Point Conversion %46.245.6Break Point Saved %65.365.9Total Points Won %54.253.8

Sabalenka has been more consistent on return but there is very little to separate the two best players in the world right now.

 

 

Playing Styles and Prediction

After her Australian Open final defeat to Rybakina, it’s been a good response from Sabalenka who is into her third Indian Wells final.

However, Sabalenka has a poor record in finals recently and will aim to put that right in California as she needs this title to prove she can still produce results under pressure.

Ahead of the final Sabalenka is determined to put her recent finals record right and is focusing on the small details in order to get better.

“I just want to focus, if I make it to the final, I want to make sure that I get it, I get the trophy,” Sabalenka told the WTA website.

“I’m so done of losing these big finals. It felt like even though players were playing incredible tennis in those finals, I feel like I had so many opportunities that I didn’t use. Right now my mentality, if I make it to the final, I’ll go out there and, you know, I’ll do everything I can and everything I cannot to get that trophy.

“If you want to be on the top, you always have to search for something, for little details to add to your game so you can be really unpredictable. To have all those tools in your game, that definitely gives you so much of advantage over other players.”

A rematch from the final two years ago awaits as Rybakina is into another big final after victory over Svitolina.

The Kazakh now has the chance to defeat Sabalenka in a final for the third consecutive time as she aims to celebrate becoming the new world number two in style.

Ahead of the final Rybakina is expecting a difficult match in what is another meeting between the two players in a final.

“We know each other’s games very well,” Rybakina admitted to the WTA website.

“It’s going to be a difficult match where we both are going to try to serve well, that’s for sure, put pressure, and…we will see what’s going to happen.”

Sabalenka will continue to dominate on the first serve and will use the backhand to dominate the longer rallies.

Meanwhile, Rybakina will aim to take the forehand early in order to take control of the rally while using the angles to move Sabalenka into different positions.

This will be another tight contest between the two best players in the world with Sabalenka’s risk-taking under pressure expected to pay off this time around.

Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.  

 

 

How to Watch/Follow Indian Wells 2026