By Tony FairbairnJannik Sinner [2] v Daniil Medvedev [11]H2H: Sinner leads 8-7INDIAN WELLS, USA – Jannik Sinner takes on the in-form Daniil Medvedev for a first Indian Wells title in the men’s singles final.

 

 

Jannik Sinner [2] v Daniil Medvedev [11] H2H & Match Fundamentals

It was a comfortable victory for Jannik Sinner as he took care of Alexander Zverev in order to reach a first Indian Wells final. The Italian is aiming for his first title of the 2026 season after a poor start to the year for his very high standards. Standing in the way of Sinner winning the crown in California is two-time finalist Daniil Medvedev after he ended Carlos Alcaraz’s winning streak to seal his place in a third Indian Wells final.

Jannik Sinner [2] v Daniil Medvedev [11]      H2H: Sinner leads 8-7     Indian Wells 2026   Indian Wells, USA         Hard (O) Prize Money: $612,340/$1,511,380Second on Stadium One (Not before 21:00 GMT)Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required

Neither player has lost a set heading into the final with Medvedev’s path slightly trickier than Sinner’s.

Jannik Sinner [2] route to the final

R1: BYE

R2: Dalibor Svrcina [Q] 6-1 6-1

R3: Denis Shapovalov 6-3 6-2

R4: Joao Fonseca 7-6(6) 7-6(4)

QF: Learner Tien [25] 6-1 6-2

SF: Alexander Zverev [4] 6-2 6-4

Daniil Medvedev [11]  route to the final

R1: BYE

R2: Alejandro Tabilo 6-4 6-2

R3: Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-0

R4: Alex Michelsen 6-2 6-4

QF: Jack Draper [14] 6-1 7-5

SF: Carlos Alcaraz [1] 6-3 7-6(3)

 

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats (Last 52 Weeks)H2H:Jannik Sinner (WR 2)Daniil Medvedev (WR 11)    Tournament Previous BestSemi-Final (2023, 2024)       Final (2023, 2024)     1st Serve %63.462.9Service Games Won %91.583.3Break Points Saved %72.260.92nd Serve Return Points Won %5853.6Break Points Converted %43.540.2

Sinner has been more efficient on serve and return but Medvedev’s consistent improvement on return makes this a fascinating match.

 

 

Playing Styles and Prediction

After disappointments in Melbourne and Doha, Sinner has bounced back just like great champions do as he is into a first final of the season.

The Italian is now hoping he can break his Indian Wells curse as he bids for a first title at Indian Wells.

After his win over Zverev, Sinner hailed his achievement of reaching a first Indian Wells final.

“It’s a great achievement. The first time here in the final, it means a lot to me,” Sinner told the ATP website.

“The third time that I’ve played the semis here, so I’m very happy about that… Now let’s see what’s coming. Of course, the next one will be a very tough test, but I’m extremely happy. We have improved this week, this tournament, and that for me was the most important part.

“It was a great performance from my side. Sascha didn’t play very well today I felt like. I broke him a couple of times in the first set, which gave me confidence to continue, and I served very well at important moments. I’m very happy.”

The final obstacle for Sinner to pass is renewing his rivalry with Medvedev after the 11th seed ended Alcaraz’s unbeaten start to the season.

Medvedev is yet to drop a set at Indian Wells and has been playing some clinical tennis as he now hope it will be a third time lucky for Medvedev in the final in California.

After his win over Alcaraz, Medvedev spoke about what it’s like to play the Spaniard and believes he will have his chances against Sinner.

“Playing someone like Carlos, you play many times, you lose many times,” Medvedev admitted to the ATP website.

“He’s an amazing player with amazing shots, defence, attack, return, everything. So, you need to be at your best. I was hanging in, in the second set, as I could. But [I am] playing great tennis, super happy to beat someone as strong as him.

“If I manage to maintain the level I had throughout the tournament and maybe even raise it, I will have my chances.”

Sinner will aim to serve aggressively on the first serve using the backhand to force shorter balls from Medvedev.

Meanwhile, Medvedev will aim to take the returns early and rush Sinner’s decision-making from the baseline.

This will be another scintillating match in their rivalry with Sinner’s high level of play proving too much for Medvedev in the crucial moments.

Prediction: Sinner in three sets.

 

 

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