A cyclone watch could be issued today with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warning that a “strong or severe” storm has a high chance of hitting Far North Queensland late this week.
A tropical low, named 34U, is currently in the Coral Sea, south of the Solomon Islands, about 1,700km north-east of Cairns, and is moving west.
If it becomes a tropical cyclone, it will be called Narelle.
BOM senior forecaster Felim Hanniffy said a cyclone watch could be issued from today.
“Some of the models do show it as a category three system,” he said.
Mr Hanniffy said there is “increasing confidence” the system will track toward north Queensland and into the Gulf of Carpentaria over the weekend.
But he said the system was likely to travel quickly once underway.
“The general model consensus is crossing the Far North Queensland coast, north of about Cooktown, either later Thursday or during Friday,” he said.
“Some models do develop it into a strong tropical cyclone, a small one, but a strong one.”
Felim Hanniffy says the storm may cross the coast north of Cooktown either Thursday or Friday. (Supplied)
He said the Daintree and North Tropical Coast could expect heavy rainfall this week.
“The peak of the rainfall and the strongest of the winds will be wrapped up tightly close to the system where it crosses the peninsula,” he said.
Mr Hanniffy said the system would move west over the Northern Territory and then Western Australia’s Kimberley region next week.
The Daintree River at Daintree Village rose to a high of 7.25 metres on Sunday, a week after flash flooding rose sharply in the night, damaging boats and river infrastructure. (Supplied: Vince O’Flaherty)
Communities north of Cairns are still recovering from heavy rains following tropical low 29U earlier in March and a drenching on Saturday night and Sunday morning, with hundreds of millimetres recorded in official gauges.
Dean Clapp from Crocodile Express is one of three commercial tour operators who lost boats in intense floods on the Daintree River this month, ahead of the lucrative Easter tourist season.
“Anything that’s not properly secured could go missing,” he said.
The Daintree car ferry is inoperable because of damage, but local river cruise boats are providing crucial pedestrian access to the northern Daintree communities. (Supplied: Douglas Shire Council)
One of his boats, the Jungle King, was washed about 20km down the Daintree River and out onto the Great Barrier Reef.
The boat has been recovered, but he estimates a damage bill of $100,000.
“This is a blip, which is hard to take every now and then, but we’ll get through it,” he said.
Another one of his boats is currently being used to get people and tourists across the Daintree River in lieu of the local council car ferry, which was damaged and is under repair.
Sara Watkins runs The Little Bush Pantry in Coen, on Cape York Peninsula in Far North Queensland. (Supplied: The Little Bush Pantry)
One of the Cape communities keeping an eye on a possible cyclone is Coen, roughly 40km west of the east coast.
Resident Sara Watkins runs The Little Bush Pantry. She estimates about 200 people are in town at the moment, fewer than the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021 count of 322 people.
They have been effectively stranded since mid-January because flooded rivers have cut the seasonal Peninsula Development Road.
While she says her store and another local store have about three weeks of supplies, her main concern is keeping goods fresh if they need to switch to generator electricity.
“If this cyclone knocks out the power, we might struggle to keep those bits good enough for people to eat,” she said.