With Mercedes winning two of the opening races this year – and an additional Formula 1 sprint in Shanghai – it looks as if the Silver Arrows are set to clinch both titles.
That was the most predictable outcome of the first few races: long before the 2026 season got underway, Mercedes was seen as a clear favourite – and little suggests that it won’t result in both titles going to Brackley this year.
Yet, is the advantage that Toto Wolff’s squad has at the beginning of the championship actually enough to run away from the opposition this year? Our international panel of journalists have their say.
The gap is nowhere near as massive as in 2014
Filip Cleeren, Motorsport.com Global:
I try to be a glass-half-full kind of guy, and as I sit here today, there are enough reasons to suggest Ferrari and even McLaren can take it to Mercedes this year.
Yes, Mercedes has been dominant in clear air, but the gap is nowhere near as massive as in 2014, and we are only at the starting point of what will be a frenetic 2026 development race that will kick off at May’s Miami Grand Prix. How much will the additional tests to combat Mercedes’ suspected compression ratio trick really peg the team back from June and beyond? I suspect not that much, but Ferrari appears to believe otherwise.
If you look back at the progress McLaren made during 2023 and 2024, then we certainly haven’t seen the last of the defending world champions yet. Ferrari has a bit more to prove in terms of in-season development, but its upside-down rear wing, exhaust wing and halo fairings suggest that team boss Fred Vasseur and tech director Loic Serra have managed to unleash plenty of creativity and innovation in Maranello, which is a good sign.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Alex Bierens de Haan / LAT Images via Getty Images
The train has left the station
Stefan Ehlen, Motorsport.com Germany
A clear no.
The data from the race weekends in Australia and China paints a very clear picture: Mercedes holds a significant advantage over the competition. The team is ahead in qualifying and is also able to pull away decisively during the race. No chance – not even for Ferrari. Even the weak starts Mercedes has had so far and the jostling in the opening laps cannot hide that fact.
However, the weekend in China also showed that Mercedes is not invulnerable. Even after a problematic qualifying session, George Russell still secured second place on the grid, while Kimi Antonelli finished fifth in the sprint despite botching the start, causing a collision, and serving a 10-second penalty. That speaks volumes – both about Mercedes’ strength and about the reserves that still seem to be hidden under the hood.
As things stand, Ferrari and the other chasing teams must hope for further reliability problems at Mercedes or for major upgrades of their own that drastically reduce the gap. Otherwise, the championship train may already have left the station.
Next stop: Lauda Drive, Brackley, England.
George Russell, Mercedes
Photo by: Lintao Zhang / LAT Images via Getty Images
Only Mercedes can stop Mercedes
Federico Faturos, Motorsport.com Latin America:
Two grands prix into the 2026 season, it already seems crystal clear that the only entity capable of preventing Mercedes from winning both titles this year is… Mercedes.
McLaren and Red Bull are, for all intents and purposes, out of the equation. Admittedly, McLaren will not continue to rack up DNSs and Oscar Piastri will eventually be able to take part in a race, while Red Bull is unlikely to be beaten “on merit”, as Ayao Komatsu quite rightly put it, by Haas at every circuit this season. Both teams will improve as the year progresses, but we are not about to witness a comeback akin to Max Verstappen’s in 2025.
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That leaves Ferrari as the only outfit seemingly capable of taking the fight to Mercedes this year. And “seemingly” is the operative word. While both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton appear comfortable with these new cars and have, at times, been able to challenge Russell and Antonelli in both Melbourne and Shanghai, they have ultimately fallen short – and by a significant margin.
Vasseur pointed out after Sunday’s race that “we were eight tenths off in Melbourne, six tenths on Friday, four tenths on Saturday” when referring to the gap to Mercedes. However, this does not guarantee that Ferrari will continue to close in and leap ahead by Suzuka. The data gathered over the opening two race weekends already suggests that Mercedes is operating at a level of dominance not seen in recent years, reminiscent of the early hybrid era, when the Brackley outfit faced no serious opposition.
All of which leads to one clear conclusion: only Mercedes can stop Mercedes this year. The development race will be particularly intense under the new regulations, so the team cannot afford to grow complacent, let alone misjudge the development path of its W17. At the same time, reliability must remain exemplary, as it has been so far. The issue Russell experienced during Q3 in China is a reminder that no one is entirely immune.
Even so, with a team as experienced – and as hungry to return to the top – as Mercedes, it seems highly unlikely that it will falter now that it once again has the opportunity to string together victories on the way to another championship-winning season.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Alastair Staley / LAT Images via Getty Images
Probably not even war
Jose Carlos de Celis, Motorsport.com Spain:
We’ve seen this before – it’s yet another case of a team dominating at the start of a new era of rules, with rivals desperately trying to catch up (by calling for rule changes or simply copying them), and by the time they lose some of their edge, it’s already too late. Mercedes’ superiority was evident even in a sprint race where it looked like Ferrari might beat it, and so far, it has secured one-two finishes in every Sunday race.
That was one of the hopes of the other teams (and the fans) – that the reliability issues that other teams have faced would also affect Mercedes – but so far it has managed to avoid them, and its drivers have not made any notable mistakes (except for Antonelli a few laps from the end in China). Mercedes probably won’t end the year with the best car, because beyond Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull are also expected to make progress. But by then, as has happened before, it will be far ahead in the championship.
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And the war? Or rather, the wars? On the one hand, the battle between its drivers could keep the points gap with rivals from getting too wide, and if Antonelli holds his ground and repeats performances like his drive in China, Mercedes will face the dilemma of establishing its own papaya rules (silver rules?) or reviving the ghosts of 2016 – though even in that year, it easily won both championships.
On the other hand, the war in the Middle East has cancelled two races, which will give its rivals time to close the gap, although the ADUO will still have to wait – and, forgive my pessimism, maybe when it takes effect, it will end up proving that Mercedes’ success this year is about much more than just the engine.
Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari
Photo by: James Sutton / Formula 1 / Formula Motorsport Ltd via Getty Images
Ferrari cannot be ignored
Khaldoun Younes, Motorsport.com Middle East:
Mercedes’ mission may not be as easy as it seems – or at least, that’s what we hope.
Two rounds of the 2026 season have now passed, and question marks are flying in from every direction. Some believe this is the best possible start to a new era, while others appear concerned about fluctuations in the balance of power, with some teams rising and others falling. In addition, there are the ongoing criticisms from major stars such as Verstappen.
The most important question: will Mercedes dominate the rest of the season?
At first glance, the answer may seem straightforward: a fast pace (indeed, clearly faster than the competition), coming from a powerful engine (enhanced by a higher compression ratio than rivals under race conditions), combined with excellent deployment of electrical energy.
Moreover, credit must be given to the suspension system and the way the car as a whole handles corners, which in turn reflects positively on tyre management.
However, anyone who watched the Chinese round will realise that the Silver Arrows are not entirely untouchable: reliability concerns that emerged with the issue on Russell’s car during qualifying, a temporary drop in pace during the main race on hard tyres, and also the presence of a driver who is still considered young and therefore prone to various types of mistakes (despite his undeniable talent).
Furthermore, Ferrari currently appears to be a true dark horse in every sense of the word: if the team succeeds in improving its car’s race pace as the season progresses, then the Scuderia will pose a threat that cannot be ignored, especially when considering its rocket-like starts and the fact that both of its drivers seem comfortable behind the wheel.
Most importantly, there is a tightening of the regulations coming by the summer, which will adjust the rules on engine compression ratios, thereby adding further challenges for Wolff’s team.
Let’s remain realistic: Mercedes is currently the strongest contender, but the mission is not as easy as it seems – at least, that’s what we hope.
George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images
George Russell and Kimi Antonelli
Ewan Gale, Autosport:
It would be safe to assume that the destination of the constructors’ title this term is Lauda Drive, Brackley, but the Silver Arrows’ early-season dominance could conspire to prevent a championship double by the season finale.
Russell and Antonelli are seemingly in a private battle for the drivers’ crown – the Italian impressing to sit just four points behind after the first two rounds, keeping his team-mate honest.
But that could be a factor that provides others with hope, especially Ferrari duo Hamilton and Leclerc.
Take 2025 as an example and McLaren’s dominance. With two strong drivers in Lando Norris and Piastri, the duo consistently took points off each other while the team was at its peak performance.
That meant that by the time Red Bull and Verstappen sorted out issues with its own car, a stellar run of form after the summer break saw the Dutchman end the year with more wins than the McLaren duo registered individually, and the four-time champion finished just two points off eventual victor Norris.
If Russell asserts his experience and dominance over Antonelli before August’s traditional break, then the championship double should be in the bag for Mercedes. But if Antonelli matches the Briton race to race and Ferrari can develop the SF-26 rapidly – as can happen at the start of a regulatory era – then the drivers’ title may not be as straightforward as initially anticipated.
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