“Records continue to be smashed with this government’s promise to cut migration in absolute tatters, as half a million would-be migrants arrived on a net basis over the twelve months to January – the highest in recorded history,” said Dr Kevin You, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.
Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics updated its Overseas Arrivals and Departures database, with the reference period January 2026. IPA analysis of the data shows:
Net permanent and long-term arrivals (i.e., people who have arrived in Australia with a declared intention to stay in the country for 12 months or longer) in January 2026 were 57,270, the highest January net arrivals on record.Net permanent and long-term arrivals totalled 494,540 in the twelve months to January 2026, the highest in recorded history.
“The number of people coming to settle in Australia reached record highs, as the size of Australia’s migrant population is growing larger than ever. The Albanese government has been unable or unwilling to genuinely reform our migration system,” said Dr You.
Net permanent and long-term arrivals in January by year
Source: ABS, IPA
“Recent claims that net overseas arrivals are coming down seek to mislead Australians into thinking that there are fewer migrants in the country than before. This is false. The number of migrants in Australia is still growing to record levels month after month,” said Dr You.
Home Affairs data show that on 1 January 2026, there were 2.98 million temporary visa holders staying or residing in Australia, the highest number on record, marking a 4.24 per cent growth from the previous year on 1 January 2025.
“The federal government’s half-hearted amendments to the nation’s visa rules have failed to deter a wave of settlers who intend to stay in Australia for the next 12 months and beyond,” said Dr You.
“The blame for the problems caused by out-of-control mass-migration in recent years should be directed squarely at the federal government, not the migrants.”
“The Australian way of life is the envy of people the world over. But Australia’s migration programme must be planned for, have the consent of the community, and be targeted toward areas of economic need. The federal government has been failing on all three counts.”
Previous IPA research can be found here.
Net permanent and long-term arrivals in the twelve months to January
Source: ABS, IPA
Note on methodology:
While ‘net permanent and long-term arrivals’ and ‘net overseas migration’ differ slightly, they remain closely related measures. The latter, in effect, is an adjustment to the former to incorporate the 12/16 rule, whereby an arrival counts as an overseas migrant arrival if the person stays in Australia for 12 of the following 16 months. Conversely, a departure is counted as a case of expatriation if the individual lives overseas for 12 of the following 16 months. Determination as to whether a person makes a permanent or long-term journey into Australia does not incorporate the 12/16 rule.
Since measuring net overseas migration lags behind permanent and long-term movement accounting, net permanent and long-term arrivals can act as a proxy to estimate net overseas migration. The Treasury’s Centre for Population noted, in its handbook, Fundamentals of migration in Australia, that permanent and long-term arrival and departure measures are “an early indicator of future migration flows”.