If a contender dominates at the UFC APEX, do they make a sound?

That’s the question Anthony Hernandez might be asking himself if he scores another ranked win at UFC Vegas 109, where he takes on the hardy Roman Dolidze. Both fighters enter Saturday’s headliner on win streaks, with Hernandez chasing a whopping eighth consecutive victory. So why isn’t “Fluffy” at the center of the middleweight contender conversation?

Counting tonight, half of Hernandez’s fights during this run have taken place in the cozy confines of the APEX, the venue where excitement and emotion go to die. Hernandez has delivered some wallopings in the smaller octagon, finishing Michel Pereira, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Marc-Andre Barriault on Vegas fight night cards. When you’re fighting in front of nobody, though, the reaction is a tad muted.

Add in the fact that Reinier de Ridder, Nassourdine Imavov, and Caio Borralho are arguably all ahead of Hernandez in the pecking order, plus we still have to see what happens between Dricus du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319, and you can see why Hernandez vs. Dolidze feels like a footnote in the grand scheme.

For Hernandez, it could turn out eight ain’t so great.

Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Aug. 9. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN and ESPN+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Roman Dolidze (13) vs. Anthony Hernandez (8)

In case you couldn’t tell already, this is Anthony Hernandez’s fight to lose.

Hernandez’s pressure game has been on point during his incredible win streak and his opponents just haven’t been able to deal with his aggressive wrestling, dangerous submissions, and endless gas tank. Roman Dolidze shouldn’t have too many answers either, as his plodding style makes him highly susceptible to Hernandez’s game plan.

Dolidze hits hard and he’s tougher than a two-dollar steak, but that’s about all he brings to this matchup. He won’t be able to out-muscle Hernandez nor outwork him, so his path to victory is narrow. A knockout rush in Round 1 or 2 is certainly possible, but we’ve seen Hernandez survive some scary situations and still come out on top.

The only real question is if Hernandez can find an extra gear to become the first fighter to finish Dolidze. I don’t see it happening, so look for Hernandez to make a strong statement Saturday, just not strong enough to shake up the UFC’s middleweight title plans anytime soon.

Steve Erceg (12) vs. Ode Osbourne

Similar to how we asked if the main event will resonate from a UFC warehouse, it’s fair to ask if anyone will even know if Ode Osbourne picks up one of the low-key upsets of the year should he beat Steve Erceg. This matchup came about when Erceg lost originally scheduled opponents Alex Perez and Hyun Sung Park, and is actually taking place at 135 pounds to accommodate Osbourne stepping in on short notice. It’s a weird situation all around.

It’s also by far the biggest opportunity of Osbourne’s career, with few expecting him to pick up a win over a fighter not far removed from challenging for a UFC title. Osbourne has always tantalized with his explosiveness, toughness, and maturity, but his abilities have never added up to a complete product. If you’re picking Osbourne, you’ll be spending 15 minutes waiting for him to hit on a puncher’s chance.

Erceg is on a deceptive three-fight losing streak. He was competitive with champion Alexandre Pantoja for five rounds, got caught by Kai Kara-France, and then went five rounds with flyweight great Brandon Moreno. There’s no shame going 0-3 against that murderers’ row of opponents.

“Vinnie Cigs” is saying all the right things about setting the tone in the standup early and he also has a considerable grappling advantage should this fight go to the ground. As cool as it would be to see Osbourne finally snag a marquee win, he’s a long shot for a reason.

Iasmin Lucindo (8) vs. Angela Hill (13)

The UFC is in real danger of developmental malpractice when it comes to Iasmin Lucindo.

At 23 and soon to be with more pro bouts than years on this earth when she fights for the 24th time tonight, Lucindo has already proven she’s a high-level fighter with a bright future. But I always say there’s no substitute for experience and you’d think the matchmakers would have remembered that after watching Lucindo’s past two fights. She eked out a controversial split decision win over Marina Rodriguez, then was clearly outclassed by Amanda Lemos. Both were 37 when they fought Lucindo, arguably past their athletic peak, but inarguably far more seasoned than their college-age adversary.

Now she takes on the oldest woman on the roster, Angela Hill, who is in fine form. She looked fantastic against Denise Gomes and Luana Pinheiro, put in a fine effort in a loss to Tabatha Ricci, and, yes, finally had a split decision go her way when she beat Ketlen Souza this past February. Hill probably won’t ever be champion or make the UFC Hall of Fame, but few in this business serve as a sterner gatekeeper.

We’re still a few years away from seeing the best of Lucindo and I’m not convinced the current product can get past Hill. “Overkill” will fight off takedowns while stinging Lucindo on the feet, winning enough exchanges to keep the scores close against the favored Brazilian. She could be headed to Splitty City again, but it’s possible Hill’s luck has turned around and I’m happy to make that pick.

Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez

Did you know Andre Fili has been with the UFC since 2013, is about to make his 25th appearance for the promotion, and has never headlined a UFC event? That somehow both makes perfect sense and seems strange at the same time.

His experience will be a huge benefit to him as he faces the inconsistent Christian Rodriguez, a 27-year-old that looks like a world beater when he’s asked to humble undefeated fighters, but struggles taking on more experienced opposition. They don’t come much more experienced than Fili at featherweight.

Fights aren’t decided by career trends, but Fili is exactly the kind of battle-tested veteran that has given Rodriguez problems. When Rodriguez can’t get his smothering grappling going, his fights turn into coin toss slugfests and that’s not sustainable for long-term success. Fili has always had good takedown defense so this should be decided on the feet.

Physically, Fili also reminds me of the man who just beat both of these guys, Melquizael Costa. Keep in mind, Rodriguez would ideally be competing at 135 pounds were it not for his issues with the scale, so he’s always dealing with a size and reach deficit, not a great situation to be in when you’re fighting an educated striker like Fili.

I like Fili to earn the upset decision.

Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto

Jean Matsumoto has to have learned a lot from his first loss, a split decision against Rob Font; in particular, I’m hoping he can bridge that gap between martial artist and fighter.

We talk about this a lot, but when I see a young guy like Matsumoto, I see someone who has all the tools to be a champion, but who is missing that—call it cliché—killer instinct that one needs to make it all the way to the top. That doesn’t mean you have to be a relentless finisher. Think of champions like Merab Dvalishvili, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Georges St-Pierre, who were more known for suffocating style than their brutality. What they all had in common, though, is the desire and willingness to completely dominate their opponents and leave them with zero options.

That’s putting a lot of pressure on Matsumoto, who doesn’t turn 26 until November. All I’m saying is that glossy record of his can turn mediocre in a hurry if he doesn’t ramp up that offense a touch.

Miles Johns has definitely studied Matsumoto’s tape and I expect him to come out fast to force Matsumoto to deal with pressure. Matsumoto’s counter game is solid, but again, he has to come forward and not wait so much. If he takes the fight to Johns, only good things can happen.

I believe in you, Matsumoto!

Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

One thing you have to give Eryk Anders credit for, he goes in there to scrap and it’s not always pretty.

I’m curious to see what he brings out of Christian Leroy Duncan, an entertaining striker when he allows himself to open up and someone I truly believe can flirt with a top 15 ranking someday. He has to prove he can fend off grinders like Anders, though. No easy task.

Anders has always fancied himself a striker, though he’s become smarter about utilizing his grappling and that could be key to frustrating Duncan. He’ll be tempted to brawl, but Duncan will respond by picking Anders apart on the feet and putting him on his backside with a precision strike. This is a good time for “Ya Boi” to mix the martial arts.

Even then, Anders’ wrestling isn’t overwhelming enough to control Duncan for three rounds, so I have Duncan finding the range eventually and scoring a knockout in the second.

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Elijah Smith def. Toshiomi Kazama

Joselyne Edwards def. Priscila Cachoeira

Uros Medic def. Gilbert Urbina

Gabriella Fernandes def. Julija Stoliarenko

Cody Brundage def. Eric McConico