Western Australia’s government says there has been a “big spike” in the number of people using public transport over the past three weeks, at the same time the war in the Middle East sent petrol prices soaring.
But are the two events really related?
On Thursday, Premier Roger Cook reported a 15 per cent increase in bus, train and ferry boardings for March so far.
At the same time, unleaded fuel prices have risen a whopping 82.3 cents a litre.
The following day, Transport Minister Rita Saffioti said the increase in public transport take-up was more like 10 per cent.
Ms Saffioti says public transport patronage is up 10 per cent. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)
“We looked at one week in March, a couple weeks back compared to last year, and we’ve already seen about a 10 per cent growth in this year,” she said.
But it’s anyone’s guess just how much of that can be attributed to the soaring cost of fuel, which on Friday was an average of $2.41 per litre for unleaded petrol and $2.86 for diesel in the Perth metro area.
Mr Cook said capped fares on public transport could have contributed to the increase in people tagging on, especially from the far-flung suburbs.
Commuters embark from the Midland train line in Perth. (ABC News: Cason Ho)
“A lot of these people are taking advantage of our Go Anywhere fare … which means that you can travel from Yanchep to Mandurah for $2.80,” he said.
Ms Saffioti also said children getting free travel on buses to school could have boosted the numbers further because they were not required to tag on.
“We’re seeing a little bit of under-reporting, [and] we believe this year’s figures will be even bigger,” she told ABC Radio Perth.
The opening of new rail lines under the multi-billion dollar Metronet project has also meant the data is less straightforward.
The Thornlie-Cockburn train line is one of the new Metronet sections. (ABC News: Cason Ho)
More lines and stations presumably mean more patrons — and the comparison of current usage to a year ago is muddled by the re-opening of the almost 40-kilometre Armadale line, and its extension to Byford in the past year.
The exact number of people using the newly built Metronet lines and stations is also embedded in data that is not publicly available.
What is quantifiable is the number of people using Perth’s train network every year is at its highest level in a decade.
The data coming from Main Roads also seems inconclusive.
The agency, which tracks traffic volumes on Perth’s major road links, as well as people using bicycle paths, only publishes public figures every financial year.
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Data released to the ABC shows very little fluctuation over the past month in the number of cars using the city’s busiest stretch of road — the Narrows Bridge — an average of just over 200,000 cars per weekday.
The same can be said for the number of cyclists counted using one of the city’s main bike routes.
What about anecdotal evidence?
For many commuters at the busy Rockingham station about 50 kilometres south of the Perth CBD, there’s been a significant increase in crowd numbers in recent weeks.
Several people said they had to park in the station’s overflow section despite arriving at their usual time.
“Trains are fuller … it must be everyone’s like, ‘I’m going to jump on the train because it’s too expensive to drive’,” a female commuter told the ABC on Friday morning.
Another woman who started catching the train this week to her new job in the city said higher fuel prices definitely influenced her decision.
“It makes it much more cost effective than paying for the fuel to get there,” she said.
This woman says the rising cost of fuel makes it cheaper to take the train from Rockingham into the city. (ABC News: Lauren Smith )
Premier Roger Cook said he expected fuel prices to climb higher, and his government would monitor the situation.
Petrol prices have risen since the Middle East war erupted. (ABC News: Lauren Smith )
“Western Australia is not immune to the escalation in crude oil prices,” Mr Cook said.
“We can do what we can within the confines of Western Australia to make sure that people get fuel.”