The SA election seats to watch as vote counting continues

Vote counting in all electorates in South Australia will continue from this morning, with the results in nine seats remaining in doubt.

It has been an extraordinary election result, with One Nation making it into the final two candidates in the count in most of the state’s 47 electorates.

It meant the Electoral Commission was forced to abandon its indicative election-night count of preferences in many seats. And it has complicated determining the winner in a number of electorates.

Today, the electoral commission will count any remaining primary votes and double-check ballots counted on Saturday night to ensure the totals are accurate.

Once that is done, the commission will likely perform new preference counts in seats where the top two candidates are clear.

But that is not clear in all seats and, for some electorates, we may need to wait until the full distribution of preferences is conducted on Saturday.

Let’s step through all of the seats that are still in doubt.

One Nation prospects

Counting yesterday firmed up One Nation’s position in Ngadjuri, with David Paton, the deputy mayor of the Adelaide Plains Council, on track to enter parliament.

There are at least three other seats that Pauline Hanson’s party stands a real chance of winning.

In all three of these seats, we are yet to see a preference count between the top two candidates.

In Hammond, One Nation candidate Robert Roylance is the favourite to win.

The craft spirit distiller and ferry operator is narrowly behind the Labor candidate, Mid Murray Mayor Simone Bailey, on the first-preference count.

But the Liberal Party and independent Airlie Keen (who has 10 per cent of the vote) recommended voters preference One Nation.

The ABC is estimating preferences between Labor and One Nation, and if the actual flow of preferences is anything like those estimates, One Nation will go on to win.

In the south-east seat of MacKillop, One Nation candidate Jason Virgo is ahead of Liberal candidate Rebekah Rosser by more than 12 percentage points.

Labor and the outgoing independent MP, Nick McBride, both have about 15 per cent of the vote, and their preferences will be crucial in determining the outcome.

The ABC is estimating preferences between One Nation and the Liberal Party.

On the Yorke Peninsula, One Nation also leads the primary count in Narungga.

It is a significant lead, but preferences may favour the Liberal Party.

Can One Nation’s candidate, photographer and make-up artist Chantelle Thomas, stay far enough ahead to win?

Until we see a preference count, this seat is likely to remain in doubt.

Adelaide marginal seats

There are a couple of Labor-Liberal contests in Adelaide’s marginal seats that are too close to call at this stage.

On election night, Labor appeared to be ahead in the beachside seat of Morphett, but that was without a couple of polling places in Glenelg.

When they reported on Sunday afternoon, it dramatically tightened the count.

As of Sunday evening, sitting member and former AFL player Stephen Patterson led the preference count by eight votes.

Further east, in the Adelaide Hills-based seat of Heysen, the deputy leader of the Liberal Party Josh Teague has regained a narrow lead.

He leads Labor’s Marisa Bell by just over 100 votes.

Further counting of postal and declaration votes will be required to confirm the outcome in both of these seats.

Northern Adelaide

Across both the northern and southern suburbs of Adelaide, One Nation has replaced the Liberal Party as Labor’s main opponent.

In most cases, these remain safe Labor seats.

But in the Gawler and Munno Para-based seat of Light, the government appears to have had its strongest challenge.

As of Sunday night, One Nation has about 34 per cent of the first preference votes, a few points behind Labor, which has just shy of 38 per cent.

Labor candidate James Agness appears to be ahead on the ABC’s estimate of preferences, but we need to see a preference count between Labor and One Nation to be sure of the outcome.

Regional independent races

Finally, there are three regional seats featuring independents, including the final seat that One Nation has a chance of winning.

Finniss, the seat centred on Victor Harbor and Goolwa, is a rematch between Liberal MP David Basham and independent Lou Nicholson.

Ms Nicholson is ahead on the primary count. However, Mr Basham performed significantly better on the primary count in the Victor Harbor early voting centre than he did on election day.

That booth is yet to report a preference count, and so this race may narrow from here.

It is also possible, although probably unlikely, for Ms Nicholson to be overtaken by the Labor candidate in this seat, which would make this a more complicated count.

In Kavel, the Adelaide Hills seat containing Mount Barker, we are getting a preference count between Labor and independent Matt Schultz.

If those two candidates are the final pairing, it is likely that Schultz will win.

But it remains possible that the Liberal Party or One Nation could overtake Schultz and knock him out of the contest.

The seat of Stuart, currently held by independent MP Geoff Brock, also remains too close to call.

This seat was vastly redrawn in the most recent electoral redistribution, now taking in much of the far north, as well as Port Pirie.

The Liberal and Labor votes are both down, and One Nation has picked up nearly 28 per cent of first preferences.

On the ABC’s estimate of preferences, Geoff Brock is in the lead, but further counting is required to be sure of the winner.