The NHL playoffs begin on April 18, and a handful of teams continue to jostle for playoff spots in each conference, including teams on the outside looking in that are surging.

The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars are the only teams to have clinched a playoff spot.
Entering Tuesday’s games, four teams are within six points of the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. Two of those teams have positive, double-digit goal differentials (Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals). Four teams are within five points of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
If the postseason began today, the Eastern Conference would have five new teams (Buffalo Sabres, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets and Boston Bruins) in the playoffs compared to last year. The West would have three new teams (Anaheim Ducks, Utah Mammoth and Nashville Predators).
Four of the six best teams (Winnipeg Jets, Washington Capitals, Toronto Maple Leafs and Los Angeles Kings) from last season are currently out of this year’s playoffs. Three of those teams won their division last season.

Here’s how the playoff bracket would look as of Tuesday morning, followed by analysis of each potential series.

Eastern ConferenceCarolina Hurricanes (Metro 1) vs. New York Islanders (Wild-card 2)

The Hurricanes have been in the Eastern Conference final in two of the last four seasons. And with the Florida Panthers all but officially out of the playoff picture, this might be the Canes’ best chance of making the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2006. Rod Brind’Amour was captaining, not coaching, the Hurricanes to the Stanley Cup 20 years ago. The Canes remain analytical darlings based off Corsi, and expected goals and projections still have them with the fourth-best chance to make, and win, the Final according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. But because of the surging Buffalo Sabres, who we’ll get to in a minute, there’s no guarantee Carolina will end the season as the East’s top seed.

The final wild-card spot is a revolving door. The Islanders, with Matthew Schaefer blocking shots like he’s Ryan Pulock, vaulted into the final wild-card spot with a win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sunday. Let’s not forget about Ilya Sorokin, who made back-to-back starts this weekend and got the job done on Sunday. But that final playoff spot could easily go back to Columbus, which is tied on points but is third in the Metropolitan Division thanks to points percentage. Detroit, Ottawa, Philadelphia and even Washington aren’t too far behind.

Remaining schedules:

Hurricanes (12 games): at Montreal (Tuesday), vs. New Jersey (Saturday), vs. Montreal (March 29), at Columbus (March 31), vs. Columbus (April 2), vs. New York Islanders (April 4), at Ottawa (April 5), vs. Boston (April 7), at Chicago (April 9), at Utah (April 11), at Philadelphia (April 13), at New York Islanders (April 14).

Islanders (11 games): vs. Chicago (Tuesday), vs. Dallas (Thursday), vs. Florida (Saturday), vs. Pittsburgh (March 30), at Buffalo (March 31), vs. Philadelphia (April 3), at Carolina (April 4), vs. Toronto (April 9), vs. Ottawa (April 11), vs. Montreal (April 12), vs. Carolina (April 14).

Pittsburgh Penguins (Metro 2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (Metro 3)

The Penguins began this season as the likely landing spot for Gavin McKenna in the draft. Barring a season-ending catastrophe, Sidney Crosby and the Pens will return to the postseason for the first time in four years. Can we also take a moment and shout out Erik Karlsson, who’s also turning back the clock with 10 points in his last four games (and 19 points in his last 12)? It’s an admirable turnaround for the Pens, who went from crumbling empire to playoff dark horse under first-year head coach Dan Muse. And thanks to their draft-pick stockpile — 15 picks in the first three rounds over the next three years — they could be building a promising future.

If the playoffs started today, how would Pittsburgh fare against Columbus, another dark horse-in waiting? Rick Bowness has rejuvenated a Blue Jackets squad that looked destined for another lost season. Since Bowness took over on Jan. 12, the Jackets are 18-3-4. Only the Sabres (20-5-3) have been better since Bowness returned to the NHL. One big plus for the Blue Jackets: Jet Greaves looks like a starting goalie. He’s 9-1-2 in his last 12 appearances.

Remaining schedules:

Penguins (12 games): vs. Colorado (Tuesday), at Ottawa (Thursday), vs. Dallas (Saturday), at New York Islanders (March 30), vs. Detroit (March 31), at Tampa Bay (April 2), vs. Florida (April 4), vs. Florida (April 5), at New Jersey (April 9), vs. Washington (April 11), at Washington (April 12), at St. Louis (April 14).

Blue Jackets (12 games): at Philadelphia (Tuesday), at Montreal (Thursday), vs. San Jose (Saturday), vs. Boston (March 29), vs. Carolina (March 31), at Carolina (April 2), vs. Winnipeg (April 4), at Detroit (April 7), at Buffalo (April 9), at Montreal (April 11), vs. Boston (April 12), vs. Washington (April 14).

Buffalo Sabres (Atlantic 1) vs. Boston Bruins (Wild-card 1)

Sabres fans, hopefully you don’t mind your bandwagon filling up. Everyone is just happy you’ve become a virtual lock for the playoffs. We haven’t seen you in the playoffs since 2011.

The Sabres’ playoff chances were once as low as 10.2 percent in December. Since Dec. 9, the Sabres are 33-6-3. Now they’re making a getaway with the Atlantic Division lead, having won 12 of their last 13 games, and their best players are leading the way — as many thought they would, with all the potential they’d accumulated over the years. Even journeyman goalie Alex Lyon has been a revelation, posting some of the best numbers of his career. The Tampa Bay Lightning are trailing them by four points, but there’s a very real chance the Sabres will begin the postseason with home-ice advantage.

And then you have the Bruins, who are in a wild-card spot while having the league’s best home record at 26-9-1. A big reason why is the play of Jeremy Swayman, who has the second-best goals-saved above expected rate behind Washington’s Logan Thompson. Boston will need all the home fortune they can muster, since they have only five home games remaining among their final 12 games.

Remaining schedules:

Sabres (11 games): vs. Boston (Wednesday), vs. Detroit (Friday), vs. Seattle (Saturday), vs. New York Islanders (March 31), at Ottawa (April 2), at Washington (April 4), vs. Tampa Bay (April 6), at New York Rangers (April 8), vs. Columbus (April 9), at Chicago (April 13), vs. Dallas (April 15).

Bruins (12 games): vs. Toronto (Tuesday), at Buffalo (Wednesday), vs. Minnesota (Saturday), at Columbus (March 29), vs. Dallas (March 31), at Florida (April 2), at Tampa Bay (April 4), at Philadelphia (April 5), at Carolina (April 7), vs. Tampa Bay (April 11), at Columbus (April 12), vs. New Jersey (April 14).

Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic 2) vs. Montreal Canadiens (Atlantic 3)

Tampa Bay might not win its division, thanks to Buffalo. But when the playoffs begin, don’t be surprised if the Lightning are still considered the favorites. The Lightning have the highest odds to make the Final and win this year, according to The Athletic’s model. Of course, they’re led by Hart Trophy candidate Nikita Kucherov and Vezina Trophy candidate Andrei Vasilevskiy, and have arguably the best coach in the league in Jon Cooper plus a veteran-heavy supporting cast. But remember, the Lightning haven’t gotten out of the first round since 2021-2022, when they advanced to the Final. They had Corey Perry on that team. No wonder they brought him back.

The Canadiens could return to the playoffs under coach Martin St. Louis, who might relish the opportunity to coach against the team he won a Stanley Cup with two decades ago. What’s also funny — or infuriating, depending on which team you support — is that the Canadiens were locked in a rebuild the last time the Lightning were in the Final four years ago. Now the Canadiens are ascending with Cole Caufield scoring on Hockey Night in Canada and Nick Suzuki creeping toward the 100-point plateau. But questions about their goaltending, their center depth and team health will surround them once they enter the postseason.

Remaining schedules:

Lightning (13 games): vs. Minnesota (Tuesday), vs. Seattle (Thursday), vs. Ottawa (Saturday), vs. Nashville (March 29), vs. Montreal (March 31), vs. Pittsburgh (April 2), vs. Boston (April 4), at Buffalo (April 6), at Ottawa (April 7), at Montreal (April 9), at Boston (April 11), vs. Detroit (April 13), vs. New York Rangers (April 15).

Canadiens (13 games): vs. Carolina (Tuesday), vs. Columbus (Thursday), at Nashville (Saturday), at Carolina (March 29), at Tampa Bay (March 31), at New York Rangers (April 2), at New Jersey (April 4), vs. New Jersey (April 5), vs. Florida (April 7), vs. Tampa Bay (April 9), vs. Columbus (April 11), at New York Islanders (April 12), at Philadelphia (April 14).

Other playoff candidates

Detroit Red Wings (84 points, one point out), Ottawa Senators (83 points), Philadelphia Flyers (80 points), Washington Capitals (79 points)

Western ConferenceColorado Avalanche (Central 1) vs. Nashville Predators (Wild-card 2)

The Avalanche are the first team to reach 100 points this season, and it’s a squad that’s been dominant since the beginning of the season. You’re more than familiar with marquee names Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. But the Avs also have the league’s best goaltender in goals-against average and save percentage in Scott Wedgewood. For those who value goals saved above expected more, Wedgewood has the 11th-best GSAx rate. Colorado has the best offense (3.68 goals per game) and defense (2.45 goals allowed per game), and a top-three penalty kill (82.8 percent). Why didn’t we mention the power play? We’d rather not. (It’s the third-worst in the league at 16.5 percent.)

Nashville’s surge is more recent. A four-game win streak has them in a playoff spot. These are the same Predators who sold pieces at the deadline while keeping veterans Ryan O’Reilly, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. If you’re wondering about their chances of staying afloat in the playoff chase, they’re still an arm’s length from the Winnipeg Jets and also must fend off underachieving Pacific Division teams. Still, Dom’s model says the Preds have better odds of making the playoffs than Seattle, Winnipeg and San Jose.

Remaining schedules:

Avalanche (13 games): at Pittsburgh (Tuesday), at Winnipeg (Thursday), vs. Winnipeg (Saturday), vs. Calgary (March 30), vs. Vancouver (April 1), at Dallas (April 4), vs. St. Louis (April 5), at St. Louis (April 7), vs. Calgary (April 9), vs. Vegas (April 11), at Edmonton (April 13), at Calgary (April 14), vs. Seattle (April 16).

Predators (12 games): vs. San Jose (Tuesday), vs. New Jersey (Thursday), vs. Montreal (Saturday), at Tampa Bay (March 29), at Los Angeles (April 2), at San Jose (April 4), at Los Angeles (April 6), at Anaheim (April 7), at Utah (April 9), vs. Minnesota (April 11), vs. San Jose (April 13), vs. Anaheim (April 16).

Dallas Stars (Central 2) vs. Minnesota Wild (Central 3)

Thanks to the current playoff format, two of the NHL’s top five teams are on a collision course to face each other in the opening round. As entertaining a series as Dallas-Minnesota would be, wouldn’t it be more fun to see them play each other in the second or third round? Commissioner Gary Bettman doesn’t think so!

The Stars hope to return to the Western Conference final for the fourth consecutive year. With a new coach behind the bench in Glen Gulutzan, they pose a significant threat with Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger. Dallas has a top-10 offense and allows the second-fewest goals in the league. They haven’t lost their luster as Cup contenders, but a big decision awaits them this offseason with Robertson headed toward restricted free agency and captain Jamie Benn’s contract expiring this summer. The time to strike is now.

That motto has also rung true in Minnesota. Last September, the Wild signed Kirill Kaprizov to a lengthy extension. Months later, they swung for the fences and acquired superstar defenseman Quinn Hughes from Vancouver. They made ancillary tweaks at the deadline, landing pieces such as Nick Foligno, Michael McCarron, Bobby Brink and Jeff Petry. Should they have landed a center such as Vincent Trocheck? Maybe. But this is a strong Wild team armed with a strong goaltending tandem of Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt. This would be the strongest matchup of the opening round if the postseason began today.

Remaining schedules:

Stars (12 games): vs. New Jersey (Tuesday), at New York Islanders (Thursday), at Pittsburgh (Saturday), at Philadelphia (March 29), at Boston (March 31), vs. Winnipeg (April 2), vs. Colorado (April 4), vs. Calgary (April 7), vs. Minnesota (April 9), vs. New York Rangers (April 11), at Toronto (April 13), at Buffalo (April 15).

Wild (11 games): at Tampa Bay (Tuesday), at Florida (Thursday), at Boston (Saturday), vs. Vancouver (April 2), at Ottawa (April 4), at Detroit (April 5), vs. Seattle (April 7), at Dallas (April 9), at Nashville (April 11), at St. Louis (April 13), vs. Anaheim (April 14).

Anaheim Ducks (Pacific 1) vs. Utah Mammoth (Wild-card 1)

Thanks to uninspiring play from Vegas and Edmonton, which is clearly missing Leon Draisaitl, the upstart Ducks are in the driver’s seat for the Pacific Division title. If the NHL used the 1-16 playoff format, the Ducks would be the conference’s only Pacific Division representative. But what’s great for the Ducks is that their youth — especially Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson and Beckett Sennecke — is leading the way while being insulated by veterans. They even added John Carlson from the Capitals for a well-deserved playoff push.

The Mammoth have been building toward playoff contention for some time, even when they were still the Arizona Coyotes, thanks to the youth they assembled. At the trade deadline, the front office rewarded their efforts by adding MacKenzie Weegar. Thanks to their underlying metrics — their expected goals and Corsi have them rubbing shoulders with Cup-contending teams — it’s worth wondering if the Mammoth might do more than just hang around in the first round of the playoffs. And that’s regardless of who they face.

Remaining schedules:

Ducks (12 games): at Vancouver (Tuesday), at Calgary (Thursday), at Edmonton (Saturday), vs. Toronto (March 30), at San Jose (April 1), vs. St. Louis (April 3), vs. Calgary (April 4), vs. Nashville (April 7), vs. San Jose (April 9), vs. Vancouver (April 12), at Minnesota (April 14), at Nashville (April 16).

Mammoth (11 games): vs. Edmonton (Tuesday), vs. Washington (Thursday), at Los Angeles (Saturday), at Seattle (April 2), at Vancouver (April 4), vs. Edmonton (April 7), vs. Nashville (April 9), vs. Carolina (April 11), at Calgary (April 12), vs. Winnipeg (April 14), vs. St. Louis (April 16).

Vegas Golden Knights (Pacific 2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (Pacific 3)

In previous years, we’d salivate at a Vegas-Edmonton matchup, with two of the league’s best teams trading paint. Intrigue remains, but it’s focused a bit more on why things haven’t gone exactly as planned in a weak Pacific Division. Connor McDavid recently likened the division to a “pillow fight.”

The Golden Knights made the big splash for Mitch Marner last offseason. He’s a point-per-game player, but that’s still a drop from his career-best 102-point season last year with the Maple Leafs. And the spotlight will remain on him to deliver in the playoffs. Vegas made another splash for Rasmus Andersson this season, and he’s fallen short of expectations with seven points in 22 games since joining Vegas. And for some reason, Vegas hasn’t been able to consistently knock off playoff teams in the regular season. Vegas would have home-ice advantage against Edmonton in this scenario, but they wouldn’t be the overwhelming favorite to defeat the reigning West champion.

Meanwhile, Edmonton is just trying to hold the fort until Draisaitl comes back for the playoffs. McDavid can only do so much. The Oilers have only had six wins in their last 16 games. Connor Ingram will likely get the lion’s share of starts in goal because Tristan Jarry just hasn’t worked out as a sufficient replacement for Stuart Skinner. That said, the Oilers should have enough horsepower to hold off Los Angeles, Seattle and San Jose below them.

Remaining schedules:

Golden Knights (11 games): at Winnipeg (Tuesday), vs. Edmonton (Thursday), vs. Washington (Saturday), vs. Vancouver (March 30), vs. Calgary (April 2), at Edmonton (April 4), at Vancouver (April 7), at Seattle (April 9), at Colorado (April 11), vs. Winnipeg (April 13), vs. Seattle (April 15).

Oilers (11 games): at Utah (Tuesday), at Vegas (Thursday), vs. Anaheim (Saturday), vs. Seattle (March 31), vs. Chicago (April 2), vs. Vegas (April 4), at Utah (April 7), at San Jose (April 8), at Los Angeles (April 11), vs. Colorado (April 13), vs. Vancouver (April 16).

Other playoff candidates

Los Angeles Kings (73 points, two points out), Seattle Kraken (71 points), San Jose Sharks (70 points), Winnipeg Jets (70 points)

(Statistics from Hockey-Reference, NHL.com, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.)