As of last week, Gold Derby has officially launched it predictions center for the 2027 Grammy Awards, and while it may seem way too early to be talking about categories that won’t be decided until next February (it is), the site’s users have already provided a snapshot of where the four major races stand.
Before we dive in, a brief explainer about the prediction centers as they stand at this early juncture in the cycle. Albums and songs available for predictions once releases have been officially announced, so even if a title is widely expected to drop during the eligibility window, we hold off until more information is available.
We do, however, make exceptions for major titles are almost certainly dropping in time for Grammy contention (see: Olivia Rodrigo’s heavily teased third album, aka OR3, but more on that in a bit).
In a surprise to exactly no one, Taylor Swift is currently sitting atop both Record of the Year and Song of the Year.
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Released a little over a month into the current eligibility cycle, Swift’s 12th studio album and its lead single, “The Fate of Ophelia,” will be more than a year old by the time that nominations are announced, but the singer’s massive popularity makes her a perennial contender.
The big question around Swift’s showing at the upcoming Grammys will be whether she can finally capture the prize that has eluded her throughout her illustrious career, Song of the Year.
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At the moment, Swift is the current favorite, but with a lot of time before the eligibility window closes on Aug. 30, a lead this early doesn’t count for very much.
That said, there is a potential upset brewing in Album of the Year. The category that Swift has previous won four times is also the only one of the major three she’s eligible for that she’s losing. Sitting in first place is the reigning Best New Artist, Olivia Dean.
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – FEBRUARY 11: Jill Scott attends as SiriusXM’s Shade 45 presents Sway In The Morning with Jill Scott at SiriusXM Studios on February 11, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Cindy Ord/Getty Images for SiriusXM)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 1: Silvana Estrada attends Variety’s 2024 GRAMMY Celebration at Mes Amis on February 1, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Elyse Jankowski/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 30: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) King Princess attends the 2026 MusiCares Person of the Year Honoring Mariah Carey at Los Angeles Convention Center on January 30, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – OCTOBER 08: The Alchemist attends BET Hip Hop Awards 2024 at Drai’s Beach Club – Nightclub at The Cromwell Las Vegas on October 08, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Mindy Small/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 30: (L-R) Leon Thomas III and Ty Dolla Sign attend the 2024 BET Awards at Peacock Theater on June 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bennett Raglin/Getty Images for BET)
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 02: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Madison Cunningham attends the 67th GRAMMY Awards on February 02, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
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Since Dean’s latest album, The Art of Loving, dropped after the end of last cycle’s window, the breakout record will compete for the major categories this year, possibly setting the stage a killer follow-up to her Best New Artist victory earlier this year.
But there is some major competition sitting just a few spots below. Another Olivia — Rodrigo — is almost certainly releasing her follow-up to her sophomore effort, Guts, in the coming months, and a critical darling of late 2025, Rosalía’s Lux, is poised to make a surge closer to voting.
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Best New Artist is shaping up to be another fierce competition among newly(ish) emerged acts. Currently sitting at the top of the predictions is Sienna Spiro, whose “Die on This Hill” has been nearly unavoidable on TikTok. She’s followed closely by rock band Geese, who broke further into the mainstream with their 2025 album, Getting Killed, and just behind them is Ella Langley, whose “Choosin’ Texas” has been owning the Hot 100 for the last few weeks.
But the biggest races are only just getting started. Stick with Gold Derby throughout the rest of the Grammys cycle and get your predictions in now if you haven’t already.