UFC Fight Night 271: Adesanya vs. Pyfer takes place on Sunday (AEDT) at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington, United States. – and we’ve got our UFC predictions for all the fights below, and you can place your bets with the best betting sites Australia has to offer!
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UFC Fight Night 271 Predictions
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Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer Prediction
Former UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya took a year out after three losses in a row, but now returns to fight Joe Pyfer, who has won his last three fights.
Adesanya has lost some of his aura after his slump in form, but at 36-years-old it’s not necessarily too late to turn things around. That being said, it should be remembered that in addition to his 29 MMA fights he also had a 75 fight run in kickboxing too, so he’s got a lot of miles on the clock. Nevertheless, while Adesanya has seemed jaded in his more recent appearances, he’s still a very high level technical kickboxer who is able to deploy his punches and kicks with clinical accuracy, while also having excellent distance management and footwork, sharp timing, and the fight-smarts to set traps and be effective on the counter. Added to that he’ll also have a 3″ height and 5″ reach advantage in this match-up that he’ll certainly put to good use. His durability is becoming a concern though after surprisingly being rocked by Strickland’s jab in their title fight and then most recently being TKO’d by Nassourdine Imavov, while Dricus du Plessis also highlighted his less convincing ground game.
The 29-year-old Pyfer is a former Contender Series fighter who has firmly established himself in the UFC over the past few years with a solid 6-1 run so far. Pyfer’s striking certainly isn’t on the same level as Adesanya technically and he’s not as fast or cerebral, but he’s a rugged fighter with respectable enough fundamentals and big stopping power in his hands that could trouble the former champ. Pyfer also has capable offensive wrestling that could give him an alternative angle of approach in this fight, and he can work for submissions too.
While Pyfer’s been in good form his striking is quite basic compared to Adesanya, and so if the former champ was still in his prime it would be easier to pick him here. Sean Strickland and Dricus du Plessis also looked like opponents he should be getting the better of but didn’t though, and so Pyfer’s heavy hands and wrestling do present a viable threat. We also don’t know whether Adesanya’s heart is really in this any more after his lengthy absence, but even so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt one more time and say he’ll slickly steer clear of Pyfer’s power punches while steadily picking him apart to win by decision.
Israel Adesanya to win by decision
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Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber Prediction
Former flyweight champion Alexa Grasso comes in off back-to-back defeats to rematch Maycee Barber, who has slowly but surely compiled a 7-fight winning streak since losing to her back in 2021.
When Grasso first went up against Barber she was looking to establish herself in the 125lb division after mixed results at 115lbs, and despite concerns that she was undersized for the weight-class she more than held her own wherever the fight went to emerge victorious. Grasso would go on to deliver a major upset win over Valentina Shevchenko a couple of years later to seize the title, but Shevchenko eventually avenged that loss by dominating her in the wrestling department to reclaim the belt. Then Last time out Natalia Silva managed to carefully outstrike her to win by decision, which was disappointing given that Grasso’s skilled, technical boxing, fast hands and good footwork has always been a strong point. The 32-year-old is also crafty on the mat with an active submission game and swift scrambling ability, and she has dependable cardio too. Still, despite the success she’s had at flyweight, Grasso’s size still feels like an ongoing issue in terms of her strength and power.
Barber was only 22-years-old when she first faced Grasso, and was also coming off an ACL injury that had kept her out for a year. Barber has gained a lot of experience since then though and amassed an impressive winning run in the process. The last couple of years have been tough though due to a mysterious illness that left her with severe symptoms and kept her out of action for a year-and-a-half, including one failed attempt at a comeback that resulted in her suffering a seizure minutes before her fight. Thankfully Barber successfully returned in December with a decision win over Karine Silva and will be hoping to put that saga behind her. Now 27, Barber has improved technically to an extent over the years, but truth be told she does still lean on her rugged physicality and toughness to impose her will in fights. She likes to apply pressure and slug it out at close quarters, along with utilizing dirty boxing in the clinch, while she can wrestle too and dishes out damaging ground-and-pound.
I’ve gone back and forth on this pick, and If these two hadn’t fought before I would have been more tempted to pick Barber as it does feel like her physicality should be a problem for Grasso. However, Grasso dealt with that better than expected back then, and in the present day she still holds a technical advantage in both striking and grappling. As such I’ll take Grasso to be faster and more nimble, while landing the cleaner strikes to win by decision.
Alexa Grasso to win by decision
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Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price Prediction
Michael Chiesa is on a three-fight winning streak, but intends to retire after Saturday night’s event. Originally scheduled to fight Carlston Harris, he’ll now be facing a short-notice opponent in Niko Price, who has lost five of his last six bouts.
A few years ago Chiesa was a contender in the welterweight division, but a few defeats against Vicente Luque, Sean Brady and Kevin Holland saw him fall out the rankings. And while he has since managed to put a string of wins together, the reality is that it’s been against other veterans approaching the end of their careers like Tony Ferguson, Max Griffin and Court McGee. The 38-year-old Chiesa has never been the most convincing fighter on the feet due to a lack of athleticism and power, but when he uses his wrestling to get the fight to the mat it’s a different story as he has stifling control on-top, very good back takes and proven submission chops that account for 12 of his 19 career victories. His ground defense is a weak point though, with five of his UFC losses coming via submission.
The 36-year-old Price is a fighter who has always had a kill-or-be-killed mentality, taking the fight to his opponent with high-volume, hard-hitting strikes, while also being wide-open to getting hit back in return. At first that strategy went well enough for him in the UFC thanks to his power and toughness, but it wasn’t long before he was falling into a pattern of knockout wins followed by KO losses. And now in the present day his chin and stamina has declined enough that the wins have dried up almost completely, though his competitive spirit to come out swinging still remains.
This feels like a favorable match-up for Chiesa, as while Price isn’t a slouch on the mat, his takedown defense is poor and Chiesa will take full advantage of that to remove his striking threat and control him on the mat. From there I think he’ll work to the back and mark the end of his career with another submission victory in the second round.
Michael Chiesa to win by submission in Rd2
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Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas Prediction
Julian Erosa’s three-fight winning streak ended with a decision loss in May of last year and he now returns to fight the debuting Lerryan Douglas, who arrives from the Contender Series on a five-fight unbeaten stretch.
Erosa had two unsuccessful stints in the UFC years ago in which he fought four times without picking up a win. He was granted a third chance in 2020 though and finally found his feet, going on to produce an 8-4 record since then. Erosa is a fast-starting action-fighter who aggressively searches for a finish, whether on the feet or on the mat. He’s tall and lanky, which will give him a 4″ height and 2.5″ reach advantage in this fight, but while he can fight at range he’s loves to step into close quarters to land his high-volume strikes. The problem for Erosa is that he eats a lot of strikes too, and while he’s mentally tough, his chin sometimes betrays him, and that’s led to seven losses via strikes over the years. His own finishing record is impressive though, with 12 wins via strikes and 14 by submission, and he’s also never been tapped out.
The 30-year-old Douglas won his Contender Series bout by KO in just 36 seconds, and he’d been tearing up the competition in LFA for a couple of years before that with four finishes in a row via strikes. It’s not always gone this well for Douglas though as he’s been fighting for well over a decade and prior to his current uptick in form he’d only gone 8-5. Douglas isn’t as constantly active with strikes as Erosa, but ‘The Gunslinger’ has good technique and big power to fire-off either single bombs or occasional explosive flurries. Douglas is also able to wrestle and earlier in his career showed off some submission ability, but has also been stopped few times by both strikes and submissions.
It feels like this fight could go either way, but while Erosa’s intensity and volume could swing it in his favor, I think Douglas single-shot power will lead to him finding a find a home for his heavy-handed hook at close range to deliver a 1st round TKO victory.
Lerryan Douglas to win by TKO in Rd1
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Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Yousri Belgaroui Prediction
Mansur Abdul-Malik has gone unbeaten in his first four UFC fights since arriving from the Contender Series, while Yousri Belgaroui earned a TKO victory on his promotional debut back in October of last year.
The 28-year-old Abdul-Malik is a big, imposing middleweight, but he’ll actually be 3″ smaller than his opponent on Saturday night. He comes from a wrestling background, but he relishes the striking battle and he’s got good speed and power in his punches and kicks, while also using his long limbs to mix in knees and elbows too. He’s comfortable going for takedowns as well, has big ground-and-pound, and is just coming off a submission win. Abdul-Malik has ended all his fights inside the distance so far in his 9-0-1 career, but that does mean he has little experience going beyond the 2nd round, and his cardio isn’t entirely convincing.
The 33-year-old Belgaroui is a former three-time middleweight Glory Kickboxing title contender who actually beat Alex Pereira once there, but lost their other two bouts as well as suffering two defeats to Israel Adesanya. He then transitioned to MMA in 2021 and has since compiled a 9-3 record. He’s very tall at 6ft 5″ and uses that to good effect with his versatile and technical arsenal of strikes that’s so far produced 7 stoppage wins. On the downside though his late transition to MMA means that he’s not got much of a ground game.
Belgaroui is the more polished technical kickboxer here, but Abdul-Malik matches up well with him physically and will have a significant advantage on the mat, so I’ll take him to find a finish there in the 2nd round.
Mansur Abdul-Malik to win by Submission in Rd2
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Terrence McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson Prediction
Terrance McKinney suffered a submission loss back in December and now tries to get back in the win column against Kyle Nelson, who emerged victorious in his only fight last year.
Terrence McKinney holds a 7-5 UFC record, and remarkably, win or lose, only two of those fights made it out of the first round. In fact, even in the 31-year-old’s overall 17-8 career he’s only gone to the second round on four occasions, and lost in three of them. McKinney is all about full-throttle offense from the opening bell with his dynamic striking game. He throws his punches with everything he’s got and fires off head kicks too, but he’s also just as willing to go to the mat hunting for a choke. However, the overwhelming body of evidence shows that if he can’t find the finish he’s looking for within the first few minutes, he becomes a sitting duck waiting to be finished off by either strikes or submission.
The 34-year-old Nelson had a tough start to his UFC career, losing four of his first five fights, but since 2023 he’s managed to get on track with a solid 4-1-1 run. Like McKinney, Nelson is quite tall for the division, but though he has an aggressive mix of boxing and wrestling, he paces himself better than his opponent and is comfortable going the full three rounds. Nelson isn’t the quickest, but he does have respectable punching power and is capable of finding a finish at times. Nelson can be hittable though, and three of his five UFC losses were via strikes.
There’s opportunities for both men here, but I’ll take Nelson to use his veteran experience to weather the early storm here and then take control of the fight as McKinney inevitably fades to deliver a 2nd round TKO finish.
Kyle Nelson to win by TKO in Rd2
UFC Fight Night 271 Prelims
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(Predicted winners in bold)
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev
Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr.
Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune
Casey O’Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes
Navajo Stirling vs. Bruno Lopes
Ricky Simón vs. Adrian Yañez
Alexia Thainara vs. Bruna Brasil