Derek CartyMar 27, 2026, 09:30 AM ET
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Friday’s top batter prop bets
Hunter Goodman | OVER 0.5 RBI (+217)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.43 EV
One reason to bet this: Goodman’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to assess power) has been 116.2 mph since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile.
Max Muncy | UNDER 0.5 H (+139)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.64 EV
One reason to bet this: In today’s matchup, Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s eighth-deepest RF fences, especially given that he hits flies to the pull field at a 41.3% rate (99th percentile).
Josh Naylor | UNDER 1.5 TB (-148)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.33 EV
One reason to bet this: Naylor has been very bad at hitting the ball to all fields — a crucial skill for batting average — ranking in just the 13th percentile in THE BAT X’s Spray Score since the start of 2025.
Friday’s top pitcher prop bets
Cam Schlittler | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.18 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the second-best for hitting out of all the games on today’s slate.
Cole Ragans | UNDER 1.5 ER (+120)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.90 EV
One reason to bet this: The Atlanta Braves have the fourth-worst projected lineup today in terms of overall offensive ability.
Kevin Gausman | OVER 5.5 K (-122)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.18 EV
One reason to bet this: The Athletics have three hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (over 27%) projected underlying K% — the “other” Max Muncy, Nick Kurtz and Denzel Clarke.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
OPP.
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Cam Schlittler
@ SF
-131
51.9
-7.92
-1.0
-101
-7.92
8.0
O -102
9.02
5.87
Robbie Ray
vs. NYY
+109
48.1
-0.14
+1.0
-129
-0.14
U -118
-14.02
Luis Severino
@ TOR
+144
37.6
-10.04
+1.0
+101
-10.04
8.5
O -118
9.28
-5.41
Kevin Gausman
vs. ATH
-175
62.4
-0.80
-1.0
-132
-0.80
U -102
-3.36
Kyle Freeland
@ MIA
+163
45.6
19.90
+1.5
-136
19.90
7.5
O -102
8.71
8.60
Sandy Alcantara
vs. COL
-199
54.4
-18.25
-1.5
+113
-18.25
U -118
-16.57
Cole Ragans
@ ATL
+119
52.1
14.93
+1.0
-133
14.93
7.5
O +102
8.74
11.30
Chris Sale
vs. KC
-143
47.9
-19.25
-1.0
+102
-19.25
U -122
-18.30
Yusei Kikuchi
@ HOU
+135
44.4
3.73
+1.0
-111
3.73
8.5
O -115
9.31
-4.00
Michael Burrows
vs. LAA
-163
55.6
-9.87
-1.0
-117
-9.87
U -105
-5.02
Framber Valdez
@ SD
+104
54.1
12.22
+1.0
-153
12.22
7.5
O -102
7.06
-18.37
Michael King
vs. DET
-126
46.0
-19.30
-1.0
+117
-19.30
U -118
8.59
Gavin Williams
@ SEA
+141
42.1
2.14
+1.0
-108
2.14
7.0
O -120
7.23
-9.80
George Kirby
vs. CLE
-171
57.9
-8.68
-1.0
-120
-8.68
U +100
1.60
Ryne Nelson
@ LAD
+189
33.5
-5.67
+1.5
-105
-5.67
8.5
O -115
9.19
-5.62
Emmet Sheehan
vs. ARI
-232
66.5
-3.61
-1.5
-115
-3.61
U -105
-3.32
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.
Los Angeles Angels Team Total UNDER
The Angels have been under in seven straight away games (+7.30 Units / 87% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -110
Atlanta Braves 1st 5 Innings (F5) Team Total UNDER
The Braves have been under in each of their last five home contests (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +114
Athletics Game Total UNDER
In 13 of the last 20 games involving the Athletics, the game has been under (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -102