Derek CartyMar 29, 2026, 04:00 PM
CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.
Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Sunday’s top batter prop bets
Nico Hoerner | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+123)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.20 EV
One reason to bet this: Since the start of last season, Hoerner’s flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to study power) grades out in the fourth percentile at 87.6 mph.
Edouard Julien | UNDER 0.5 H (+109)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.65 EV
One reason to bet this: Julien is at a disadvantage, facing the leagues ninth-deepest LF fences given that he hits fly balls to the opposite field at a 37.5% rate (96th percentile).
Gary Sanchez | UNDER 0.5 H (+140)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.24 EV
One reason to bet this: The Chicago White Sox outfield defense grades out as the fourth-best today.
Sunday’s top pitcher prop bets
Tatsuya Imai | OVER 5.5 K (+102)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.22 EV
One reason to bet this: Houston grades out as the No. 4 venue in the league for strikeouts.
Connelly Early | UNDER 6.5 K (-155)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.65 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system expects Connelly Early to be limited by a pitch count of 85 today.
Shota Imanaga | UNDER 2.5 ER (-173)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Wrigley Field has the seventh-highest fences in the league..
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
OPP.
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Bailey Ober
@ BAL
+129
42.1
-4.00
+1.0
-114
-4.00
9.0
O -102
8.64
-21.02
Shane Baz
vs. MIN
-156
57.9
-4.69
-1.0
-114
-4.69
U -118
11.07
Seth Lugo
@ ATL
+129
43.3
-1.32
+1.0
-117
-1.32
8.0
O -112
8.80
-2.03
Grant Holmes
vs. KC
-156
56.7
-6.61
-1.0
-111
-6.61
U -108
-7.09
MacKenzie Gore
@ PHI
+139
41.1
-1.87
+1.0
-109
-1.87
8.0
O -105
7.79
-15.93
Jesus Luzardo
vs. TEX
-168
58.9
-5.98
-1.0
-119
-5.98
U -115
6.45
Luis Morales
@ TOR
+129
44.9
2.64
+1.0
-111
2.64
9.0
O +100
8.82
-17.10
Eric Lauer
vs. ATH
-156
55.1
-9.45
-1.0
-117
-9.45
U -120
7.34
Jose Quintana
@ MIA
+159
39.4
1.40
+1.0
+108
1.40
8.0
O -105
8.26
-8.04
Max Meyer
vs. COL
-194
60.6
-7.78
-1.0
-140
-7.78
U -115
-1.10
Connelly Early
@ CIN
-136
59.1
3.77
-1.0
-111
3.77
8.0
O -118
8.78
-5.24
Rhett Lowder
vs. BOS
+113
40.9
-14.37
+1.0
-117
-14.37
U -102
-3.54
Carmen Mlodzinski
@ NYM
+149
38.8
-3.96
+1.0
+101
-3.96
8.0
O -102
8.05
-10.31
Nolan McLean
vs. PIT
-181
61.2
-4.63
-1.0
-131
-4.63
U -118
1.07
Anthony Kay
@ MIL
+141
45.7
10.57
+1.0
-104
10.57
7.5
O -112
8.36
-1.78
Brandon Sproat
vs. CWS
-171
54.3
-14.23
-1.0
-125
-14.23
U -108
-7.34
Jack Kochanowicz
@ HOU
+149
43.1
6.70
+1.0
+104
6.70
9.0
O -105
8.84
-18.64
Tatsuya Imai
vs. LAA
-181
57.0
-11.28
-1.0
-135
-11.28
U -115
9.05
Steven Matz
@ STL
-120
47.4
-12.20
-1.0
+106
-12.20
8.0
O -102
7.64
-17.62
Dustin May
vs. TB
+100
52.6
4.22
+1.0
-137
4.22
U -118
7.89
Jake Irvin
@ CHC
+203
31.4
-7.77
+2.0
-127
-7.77
9.0
O -118
9.22
-16.14
Shota Imanaga
vs. WSH
-252
68.6
-2.84
-2.0
-102
-2.84
U -102
8.15
Slade Cecconi
@ SEA
+119
46.2
1.88
+1.0
-128
1.88
7.5
O -115
8.05
-7.68
Emerson Hancock
vs. CLE
-143
53.8
-9.12
-1.0
-101
-9.12
U -105
-1.17
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.
Top Betting Trends
Los Angeles Angels Team Total UNDER
On the road, the Angels team total has gone under in seven straight games. (+7.30 Units / 87% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +100
Miami Marlins Moneyline
The Marlins’ moneyline has won in 11 of their past 15 games, (+9.50 Units / 57% ROI). Current odds: -194
Chicago Cubs 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
The Cubs’ run line has won in 14 of their past 20 games at home. (+7.75 Units / 33% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +105