US MotoGP a shuddering warning for Ducati’s title defence

Three races into a season is not usually the point for alarm bells to start ringing. But Ducati’s title defence already looks like it’s on the rocks after another underwhelming grand prix showing at the Circuit of the Americas last weekend.

After a strong pre-season, the GP26 just hasn’t looked like the bike that was promised in the winter. Over a single lap and in the sprint on softer rubber, it remains quick. Marc Marquez was close to victory on Saturday in Thailand, while he and Fabio Di Giannantonio were a cut above the Aprilias in the half-distance contest in Brazil.

And at the US Grand Prix, Pecco Bagnaia was on course to win but for a vibration on his rear tyre late on, as well as a stunning tactical call from Jorge Martin on the Aprilia to go with the medium rear, left him second instead.

Di Giannantonio snatched a second successive pole, while Bagnaia was third on the grid. Clearly, there is speed in the GP26. But when it comes to grands prix, the bike lacks consistency and early race pace to make as big a difference, while Bagnaia noted that the lack of turning means the rear tyre is getting chewed up more.

VR46 rider Di Giannantonio was Ducati’s leading rider at the US Grand Prix in fourth, but slid almost seven seconds away from winner Marco Bezzecchi, who led every lap to set a new record and bring his domination up to five straight Sunday races.

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At no point in the US Grand Prix did Ducati look like a bike that could genuinely contend for the podium. The Aprilias of Bezzecchi and Martin, as well as KTM’s Pedro Acosta were a step ahead from the start, while Trackhouse’s Ai Ogura was on course to add to Ducati’s pain before a technical issue on lap 15 of 20 tragically ended his charge.

2026 US MotoGP top three pace analysisLapsMB72 (M/M)JM89 (M/M)PA37 (M/M)22m02.426s2m02.459s2m02.41s32.3242.4082.39342.362.2562.35952.1572.5642.29962.1142.4332.66372.2953.3132.52482.6332.3352.53492.7182.3862.446102.1152.7542.451112.472.3582.645122.442.4172.283132.7772.5342.743142.6692.4243.331152.8262.5092.766162.4142.4832.939172.5822.3853.143182.7862.5353.051192.4452.7893.009202.8993.7363.738Pace2m02.497s2m02.583s2m02.722s

What was most concerning about the US Grand Prix for Ducati was that it was the first race to be run under normal conditions. Michelin’s standard tyre carcass was in use at COTA and, while it was hot, it wasn’t anywhere near the asphalt-busting temperatures of Thailand or Brazil. And yet, the song remained the same for Ducati.

Bagnaia was pretty certain in his assessment on Ducati’s current situation: “Aprilia is ahead, and quite far ahead at that.”

David Tardozzi, Ducati team manager, was a bit more diplomatic, noting that Aprilia has gained more than Ducati – “seven or eight tenths”, he reckons – but believes Marc Marquez is still suffering from the aftereffects of the shoulder he injured last October in Indonesia.

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Aprilia is continuing a feet-on-the-ground approach to its current success, but back-to-back 1-2s at what has previously been a good track for Ducati and a stomping ground for Marquez is enough for the Noale-based manufacturer to start really dreaming.

Ducati, on the other hand, has some serious soul-searching to do over the extended break between COTA and the Spanish Grand Prix owing to the war-enforced postponement of the Qatar Grand Prix.

Marc Marquez, 2026 US MotoGP.

Marquez not at his physical best, but COTA was a concern

The right shoulder injury Marquez suffered in a collision triggered by Bezzecchi last October at the Indonesian Grand Prix proved to be more complex than first feared in the immediate aftermath of the incident.

But there was a sense over the winter that, perhaps, Marquez’s physical condition was maybe worse than was being let on. So far in 2026, he has been using Ducati’s older aero spec from 2024. He preferred the 2025 version, but it makes the bike too physical for him right now.

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That seems to be the case on a full fuel load on fresh tyres at the start of races, with Marquez noting after finishing fifth at COTA: “I lose a lot of time in the first laps, because when the tyre is new, I’m not ready to ride the bike. Even in Turn 1, I made a mistake; I braked and just the bike shakes and I [turned] in again because I wasn’t able to stop.”

The huge 190km/h crash he had on Friday in FP1 that left him with bruising to his right side did nothing to help his already below-par fitness.

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Last year, Marquez was always stronger on used rubber, and that fact has remained in 2026 despite the current limitations of his body and the GP26 relative to the Aprilia.

2026 US MotoGP analysis: Ducati vs ApriliaLapsMB72 (M/M)FD49 (M/M)MM93 (M/M)22m02.426s2m03.184s2m03.976s32.3242.2222.88742.362.1795.39252.1572.4362.88862.1142.3362.46172.2952.9252.26682.6332.5712.35892.7182.4432.485102.1152.8082.529112.472.4372.184122.442.712.133132.7773.1362.294142.6692.2952.956152.8262.9723.029162.4143.3573.64172.5823.2752.849182.7862.862.959192.4453.2972.68202.8993.4042.457Pace2m02.497s2m02.781s2m02.724s

His average pace worked out a 2m02.724s compared to 2m02.497s for Bezzecchi, who was uncatchable. Pedro Acosta’s pace in third was an average of 2m02.722s, putting Marquez on pace to be on the podium at least on Sunday, while he was quicker than Di Giannantonio.

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Of course, his race was compromised by the long lap he was handed for a collision with Di Giannantonio in the sprint. Marquez dropped to 11th when he served that on lap four of 20. Without it, the podium was definitely there, though that would also be dependent on Ogura suffering the technical issue he did.

Marquez’s overtaking in the grand prix was a lot more precise, but his clash with Di Giannantonio was a similarly desperate attempt to the one that got him a time penalty in the Thailand sprint against Pedro Acosta.

Di Giannantonio had put a strong move on Marquez earlier on the opening lap. While Marquez held up his hands to the mistake, it’s hard to look past it as his ego took over in the moment, especially after being beaten in Brazil to the podium by the VR46 rider, who remains Ducati’s leading rider in the championship.

At times throughout his career, Marquez has made clunky errors in times of strife. While not to the same level, elements of his COTA weekend harked back to the 2018 Argentina Grand Prix and his infamous clash with Valentino Rossi while recovering from a penalty for not carrying out the correct start procedure.

Ducati has been able to rely on Marquez to get the most on offer when things haven’t gone its way. At full fitness, Marquez will almost certainly be able to give Aprilia a stiffer challenge than it has faced so far in 2026. But errors like that in the Thailand sprint, which lost him a sprint win, and again in COTA in the sprint are only magnified in the face of his and Ducati’s current situation.

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The extended April break comes at a good time for the seven-time world champion, who can dedicate more time to his shoulder recovery, while the upcoming test after the Spanish Grand Prix will have Ducati hoping it can unlock something for the rest of the season.

Marco Bezzecchi, 2026 US MotoGP.

Why is the Aprilia so good right now?

Even Aprilia was a little bit surprised with the step it made at the start of 2026. In Thailand, CEO Massimo Rivola admits he didn’t believe the team’s own simulations about its grand prix pace in that race.

The base of the RS-GP – its agility – was always its biggest strength. That helped it to wins in Argentina, Barcelona, Britain and COTA between 2022 and 2024. That has remained as the bike has evolved.

But it was various steps last year, including to the electronics, to improve braking stability that has really seen the RS-GP take that final step to consistent race winners. Not only does the bike turn well, it charges into the corners quicker, and because of that, it can take even more profit of its agility through the apex.

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The grip of the bike is good as well, allowing riders to pick the RS-GP up and fire it out of corners to the tune of some incredible top speed. Bezzecchi had the fastest speed of the COTA weekend, set during the sprint, at 353.9km/h. That was a shade quicker than the Ducati at 352.7km/h of Di Giannantonio during his pole lap.

Aprilia has seemingly crafted a hugely consistent package. Bagnaia noted that the RS-GP doesn’t chew up its rear tyres. That used to be a trait of the Ducati, but not so any more given the GP26’s current struggles under braking and in turning.

The RS-GP fires up its rubber better at the start of races, too, with Bezzecchi able to quickly pull sizeable leads early in the opening three grands prix of the year. There was a clear advantage on the stiffer rear tyre carcass used in Thailand and Brazil, which was also thought to be holding Ducati back somewhat.

However, on the normal carcass used at most races, nothing really changed one way or the other.

Bezzecchi may have felt he was pretty much at the limit of what the bike could do on Sunday in COTA. Even so, that’s a worrying sign for the rest, as is the fact that at three completely different circuits, in completely different grip conditions, and on two different kinds of tyres.

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Now the rest face a conundrum. With each passing week, resources for 2026 become harder to justify with such a major regulations overhaul coming up. How much, then, will someone like Ducati be willing to push it in order to close that gap, not least with the current uncertainties over Marquez’s physical condition?

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US MotoGP a shuddering warning for Ducati’s title defence

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