The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction tool, is still projecting Finland to be the favourite to win if the competition was held today.
Finland holds the number one spot for the second week in a row, with ‘Liekinheitin’ by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen expected to be the frontrunner for Eurovision 2026 in Vienna. However, the song’s already tight lead in The Model has shortened, with second placed France closing the gap by two points.
In fact, what is notable about this projection is the lack of change. The Model’s top five remains virtually untouched, with only a smattering of points changing hands at the top of the scoreboard. And, despite the usual trend of projections becoming firmer as we get closer to the Contest, the winning total has shrunk further – with just 384 points now being projected as enough to triumph.
In this update, we’ll explore:
Why ‘Liekinheitin’ might not be extending its lead in The Model
Which two new songs are projected to make it to the Grand Final this week
The biggest risers and fallers in today’s update!
What Is The Model?
The Model was built to answer a simple question: “if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, who would win?” To do that, The Model turns opinion into data in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The tool has frequently been more successful in predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or any other indicator.
This year, The Model is bigger than ever before, with new updates released every Monday from now until Eurovision 2026 on the ESC Insight website, where the results will change and evolve as this year’s Contest comes closer.
A new companion podcast, ‘Inside The Model’, is also launching on the ESC Insight feed, providing weekly prediction updates, unique song analysis, and special guest appearances from the world of the Contest. This week, Eurovision 2013 contestant and the host of Eurovision in Concert in Amsterdam, Krista Siegfrids, joins James to chat about The Model’s projections and what it’s like for artists to deal with Eurovision speculation.
Now, it’s time to dive into what The Model says would happen if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, March 30 2026.
Semi-Final One
Semi-Final One from The Model – 30/03/2026 (James Stephenson)
Let’s start by checking in on how Semi-Final One of Eurovision 2026 is shaping up. And, if you read last week’s update, you might be forgiven for a case of déjà vu.
There is little major movement this week, with the top nine countries all exactly where they were seven days ago. Sweden are still projected to win this semi-final, with ‘My System’ down one point to 259, and Israel is still on exactly 246. Rounding out the top five is Finland, up two points, Greece who are projected down two points, and Lelek from Croatia get a seven-point boost in The Model this week.
The country that gets the biggest lift, though, is Moldova. Satoshi was one of the first artists selected for this year’s Contest, with ESC Insight’s Ben Robertson heading out there in January to see how it all came together. As all the other songs got picked, it seemed like Moldova was being forgotten by the odds and the rankings, but that’s begun to change.
‘Viva, Moldova!’ climbs 21 points in The Model’s latest update, reaching 147 and starting to look much more likely to reach the Grand Final in May. Ben has told me many times that he expects Moldova to take a significant haul of televote points in Vienna; with 100 points in this semi-final alone, perhaps The Model has heard him.
The one change in position actually comes in tenth place – the last qualifying spot has again shifted. Georgia’s ‘On Replay’ has occupied that spot for the past two weeks, but has lost 10 points in this update. That means that, despite dropping by a point of its own, Belgium’s Essyla is now projected to be the final qualifier for Saturday’s Grand Final with ‘Dancing on the Ice’.
With Belgium on 89 and Georgia on 87, it appears the race for the final spots will be incredibly close on Tuesday night. Countries like Serbia, Lithuania and Montenegro could still be seen as being on the bubble despite healthy totals in this update, and songs like Poland, San Marino and Portugal’s have the kind of numbers that suggest they have a chance of getting in.
Semi-Final Two
Semi-Final Two from The Model – 30/03/2026 (James Stephenson)
With Semi-Final One staying in formation, Semi-Final Two is changing shape. While only two songs moved positions there, in this semi-final The Model only has three entries in the same place they were in seven days ago. And, once again, we have a brand-new qualifier in this projection, which means The Model has still not picked the same Top 10 more than once in either semi-final.
At the top, there’s a new country leading the way: Australia. Delta Goodrem and her song ‘Eclipse’ have returned to the top in this projection, scoring 260 points overall. Remarkably, The Model has the song earning 130 each in both the jury and the televote – perfect symmetry! Delta has been climbing the odds in recent days, perhaps driven by recent interview appearances on major shows like The One Show and This Morning here in the UK.
Denmark’s Søren Torpegaard Lund falls to second as a result, just three points behind, while there’s a reasonable gap down to Ukraine, which has climbed a place to third. Cyprus has also risen to fourth despite dropping four points from last week, helped by Malta dipping from third to fifth. Now scoring 25 points fewer than in The Model’s previous projection, Aidan’s ‘Bella’ is the biggest faller this week. This also means The Model no longer has the song leading the jury vote: it has Australia and Czechia sharing an unexpected tie on 130 there.
While Malta has taken the biggest hit on its points total, its Romania that has made the largest gain. ‘Choke Me’ is up 25 points on last week, mainly driven by a betting odds surge that has seen it approximately halve its payouts with the bookmakers. The song has been getting a lot of mainstream attention due to its lyrics, and that appears to be giving it extra publicity against some of its rivals for now. Because of this, Romania and Bulgaria have swapped places, with Albania keeping its ninth spot.
Behind Alis, though, there is another change to the top 10. For the first time this year, The Model is projecting that Norway will miss out on the Grand Final. ‘Ya Ya Ya’ by Jonas Lovv won its national final by a wide margin, but a fall of 16 points this week could indicate a genuine risk that Norway misses the big Eurovision dance in a decade. ‘Mother Nature’ by Eva Marija is back into the top 10 at Norway’s expense, with Eva Marija projected to get enough support with the juries to eclipse Norway’s support from the public vote.
Behind them, the chasing pack still appears as close as ever, with Latvia, Switzerland and Armenia all having good points totals for songs in their positions. As a result, this semi-final looks even more tricky to call than the first. One prediction I’d personally make? The Model will make several different predictions about how this one will go before the final one in Vienna.
Grand Final
The Top Five from The Model – 30/03/26 (James Stephenson)
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
As the graphics show, The Model hasn’t changed much at the top end of the Eurovision leaderboard. In the Grand Final, the system still has Finland as the strongest song, with ‘Liekinheitin’ accruing 384 points. However, that is four points down on last week – and that continues a downward trend.
So, why is the winning total so low? And what could change to make it get bigger?
Firstly, the low bar. In the first projection, when The Model had Sweden in first on the outdated methodology, 407 points already seemed remarkably low. 384 is, simply, not a winning number. What seems to be making a low winning score possible at Eurovision 2026, though, is both a lack of total confidence in ‘Liekinheitin’, as well as an uncertainty about which song can surpass it in Vienna.
While most favourites in the betting odds grow stronger, Finland finds itself with longer odds than it did seven days ago. However, the contenders behind aren’t seeing their odds shorten by much to match it. Some songs are bucking that trend, notably Australia for the moment, but even then the movements aren’t significant enough to make those songs bigger contenders – Australia has climbed a place this week, but Delta is still outside the top five.
There is a lot of support for France’s Monroe, Denmark’s Søren and Greece’s Akylas, and those songs along with Australia are all getting very close together behind Finland. If that level of support were exactly reflective of how the voting will go in Vienna, then all of those songs have the capability of cannibalising each other during the points sequence, both in the juries and on the televote side.
What separates Finland from the rest is that its public vote appeal seems to be by far the largest, Israel aside. The Model is still projecting Finland getting 250+ there, with no other song even getting past 200 points in either jury or public vote, Israel again aside. Right now, that is the clear standout feature that Finland has over its main contenders – and is potentially the reason why one clear challenger hasn’t yet emerged.
Who could that be? In my opinion, it’s whichever song appears to have the most well-rounded package, and the one that gets its staging right. We already know ‘Før Vi Går Hjem’ will have a strong staging thanks to the DMGP performance, but because that is a performance we know and one that is unlikely to change, its current projection of 342 might be close to its ceiling. ‘Regarde!’ had a performance on French TV over the weekend that showcased Monroe’s strong camera presence, but didn’t tell us too much more about the overall staging concept.
Right now, it’s almost as important to look at the unknowns. The biggest unknown? Australia’s performance. There’s no doubt Delta Goodrem has star power, and that name recognition will give her a boost in Vienna. A great stage concept has the potential to take this song much further – The Model projects ‘Eclipse’ to be more of a jury song, but with plenty of support from the public vote too. Delta, then, stands out as the biggest potential threat.
With The Model’s latest update, Finland remains in front – but that is set to keep changing. Next week, it’s widely anticipated that we will find out the running order for each of the semi-finals, which could have significant implications for several songs’ chances of reaching the Saturday night. Not only that, The Model will make weekly projections from now until the contest, updating with new information throughout.
If you don’t want to miss any regular weekly update, read The Model on ESC Insight every Monday from now until the Eurovision Song Contest 2026. And, if you want to find out more about The Model works or just nerd out about the numbers, we have something special for you.
For the first time, The Model has a companion podcast! ‘Inside The Model’ takes you deeper into the numbers with all the updates, analysis of songs like you’ve never heard before, and guest appearances from some of the most notable names in Eurovision. Our latest episode with Krista Siegfrids who performed ‘Marry Me’ for Finland in 2013 is out now, where I ask her whether this will be the year Finland finally takes the Eurovision trophy back after two decades.
Finland leads – but who will next week? See you then for the next update from The Model.