Andrea Kimi Antonelli is a Formula 1 history maker.
In the last two grands prix he’s become the youngest pole-getter, the second youngest winner and now the youngest ever title leader in the sport’s history. He’s the first Italian to lead the series since 2005 and the first to win back-to-back grands prix since 1953.
Now he’s making history of a different kind.
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His victory moved him not just to the top of the standings but also ahead of teammate George Russell.
It’s the first time in 30 races that Russell has been headed on the title table by the driver in the sister car, dating back to the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix.
If you’re looking for a momentum shift, this might just be it.
Don’t confuse Antonelli’s good fortune in Suzuka with a lack of merit.
The Italian had been the faster Mercedes driver all weekend, constantly half a step ahead of Russell. Only a poor start — fast becoming typical of the Mercedes package — prevented him from turning pole into an early lead that would have likely led to an even easier win.
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But even after being dumped to sixth at the end of the first lap, it was clear than the 19-year-old was the fastest driver in Suzuka. He was up to fourth in quick order, and after Charles Leclerc’s pit stop moved him up to third, he began catching Russell, who was battling Oscar Piastri, at a ferocious rate of knots.
The safety car did the overtaking for him, being timed shortly after the leaders took their sole pit stops but before he was set to take his.
Nailing the restart mean the race was as good as won, and he charged home to a comfortable 14-second victory.
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“Obviously we were very lucky with safety car, but on the medium [tyre] we were really strong once I got some free air, and then on the hard the pace was just incredible,” he said.
“I felt very good with the car and very pleased with that.”
It was the perfect follow-up to his maiden win in China. Though in Shanghai he and the team indulged in celebration — and team boss Toto Wolff completed something of a victory lap for taking a punt on promoting the teenager to Formula 1 — everyone, including Antonelli’s father, was extremely cautious not to allow the hype to build.
He remains, after all, a 19-year-old championship outsider with a massive experience gulf to Russell, the title favourite.
In Japan, though, it was impossible not to see the bigger picture of Antonelli’s potential — impossible not to see the possibilities.
“When we decided to give him the seat one and a half years ago, we hoped for this trajectory — that with the ups and downs you expect from a young driver aged 18 in the first year, eventually, second year, the success would materialise,’ Wolff said. “I think this is happening.
“Could we have predicted two wins out of three races at the beginning for Kimi? No, but today he was quick when it mattered, the luck was on his side, and I think all of that contributed for him to have this consecutive victory.”
And that has reframed expectations for the 2026 championship.
Safety car costs Piastri in Japan | 02:18
RUSSELL’S TITLE FAVOURITE TAG LOOKS FLIMSY
For months George Russell has been the almost unbackable title favourite, dating back to rumours last year that Mercedes was poised to steal a march on the field.
His status was cemented by the team’s impressive pre-season, and his comfortable victory in Melbourne all but locked him in for his maiden championship by consensus.
Since then, however, he’s been shaded by his junior teammate.
Russell was competitive in Suzuka but without looking like he had a handle on Antonelli.
Perhaps in pursuit of his young Italian teammate, he and his side of the garage made set-up changes ahead of qualifying that made his car much worse to drive, though he still qualified second.
Another poor start preceded what he said was a litany of car problems that left him falling short of his potential.
“Everything was just issues after one another,” he lamented. “I couldn’t recharge my battery at the safety car restart, so Lewis just flew by me, and then I obviously had the issue later in the race with Charles and the battery where I just had no speed and he passed me — just one thing after another.”
It was the safety car that ultimately put paid to his victory bid, though, dropping him to third behind Piastri and leaving him vulnerable to drivers behind.
“What can you do? That is pure luck,” he said. “If that was one lap later, we’d have won the race, and if there was no crash, maybe we would have regretted not pitting at that point.
“In racing, it sometimes it goes for you, it sometimes it goes against you.”
Of course that totally ignores the fact that he’d been beaten by Piastri in the first stint and at the pit stops. Piastri had frustrated the Briton’s attempts to retake the lead during the opening phase of the race, and McLaren secured him an undercut advantage to hold track position for the second stint.
A new rivalry brews.Source: Getty Images
If you were to take the safety car out of the equation, then Russell likely would have lost to Piastri — and given Antonelli looked quicker than him throughout the afternoon, he may well have finished behind his teammate too, just as he did in reality.
What he’s really lamenting is that Antonelli, not him, got the bout of good fortune.
Russell feels he’s had more than his fair share of misfortune this season, having qualified second in China after a front wing problem left him with enough time for only one Q3 lap and having later struggled to pass the Ferrari drivers after a poor start, allowing his teammate to cruise to victory.
“It just feels like at the moment, the last two weekends, every issue we’re having is on my side and we’re the ones that go through that pain,” he said. “It’s just how it’s turned out.
“Sometimes people are having problems in practice. We’ve not had a single issue in practice this whole season; I’ve had the problems in qualifying.
“It’s just luck of the draw with these new cars.”
While it’s true Russell has been somewhat compromised over the last two qualifying sessions, we shouldn’t forget Antonelli’s monster FP3 crash in Melbourne that had him almost miss qualifying completely. Making it out in the nick of time, he steered a car that didn’t have his set-up choices dialled into it — and he still qualified and finished a competitive second.
The balance of culpability between driver and team in each of these incidents might be different, but in terms of pure pace, neither has had a clean run — but Antonelli has emerged ahead.
Antonelli becomes youngest F1 leader | 01:25
WHO’S UNDER PRESSURE?
Russell has only ever seen Mercedes dominate titles from afar, while competing in the junior categories and during his Williams apprenticeship. He was promoted to the works team in 2022, which heralded the beginning of a four-year championship dry spell during which Mercedes failed to master the ground-effect regulations.
He matured into a highly effective operator during that time — into the sort of driver ready to seize an opportunity like this.
But now Antonelli stands in his way as a potential obstacle.
The path is no longer as clear as it looked. The pressure is no longer able to be contained at its minimum possible value.
Even if no other team can sustainably catch Mercedes, Russell will likely have Antonelli in the other car giving him more than just a headache.
Antonelli’s speed has long been beyond doubt, and his racecraft has improved considerably too.
Interesting is the idea that these dramatically different regulations could be playing a role in reducing the significance of the experience gap between them, with every driver having had to rewire their brain to a certain extent. It’s still early days, but the last two races have suggested that Russell hasn’t mastered the new power unit regime as effectively as Antonelli.
“For sure it helps that everyone started from zero,” Antonelli said. “But definitely I’ve been closing the gap [to Russell].
“I think still in qualifying he has the upper hand, especially when it comes to Q3 — he’s always able to find that little bit of extra, which I’m working on — but in terms of race pace, I think we have a really strong base.
“I feel he’s obviously a super, super strong, very complete driver. I think he showed many times last year, and that’s why it’s not going to be easy, and that’s why I need to do everything as perfect as possible.”
Suddenly it feels like the conditions exist not to give Russell his first title but to bring what would be a sensational second-season championship into view for Antonelli.
“I’m not worrying about that,” said the Italian. “I’m just going to focus on myself, on what I need to do, trying to get everything right in terms of procedure, starts, driving.
“I know how strong George is, and for sure it’s going to be very hard, plus I think Ferrari and McLaren will get closer, so it’s going to be important to stay on top of the game, as I said before, keep raising the bar.”
Winner Mercedes’ Italian driver Kimi Antonelli celebrates on the podium after the Formula One Japanese Grand Prix.Source: AFP
The bonus for Antonelli is that expectations remain low, even after taking the championship lead. Russell is the driver expected to deliver; he’s the driver who will begin to feel the pressure if he finds himself on the receiving end of consecutive defeats.
It looked like there were already signs of tension in Japan.
Russell, in recent years having developed a cool temperament over radio, sounded tetchy and highly strung in his conversations with the pit wall. He was infuriated by the timing of the safety car — having already been frustratedly stuck behind Piastri — and as the caution came to and end, he sounded more concerned about how Antonelli would manage the restart than he was about his position in the pack, and he subsequently lost out.
His irritation over team radio was enough for team boss Wolff to dial in to tell him to focus — not unheard of, but a tactic deployed only when the boss has felt a driver’s mind has needed to be clarified.
“It’s three races down in 22,” Russell said, dismissing talk of pressure. “One lap different today and the victory would have been on my side, and I’m confident of that.
“In China, without the qualifying issue, maybe I was 0.3 seconds ahead in sprint qualifying, so maybe I could have been on pole there and won that race. It’s just how it turns out. That’s racing.
“I’m not concerned at all. It’s a long year. I know I’ve got what it takes to bounce back and not dwell on it.”
Russell isn’t to be underestimated. He dispatched Hamilton in the same car, and last year he was arguably the most consistent performer of the season. Extremely quick, he’s exactly the driver Mercedes needs to spearhead a championship challenge.
But it’s clear after Japan that his gaze can no longer be only forward. He’s got to keep an eye on the silver car beside him too.
“We need to continue to do our job and give them a tool that they can continue to win or fight for the positions,” Wolff said when asked how he intended to manage the brewing title fight.
“Then towards the end of the season we’re going to see how the points fall and whether anything needs to be done.
“But at this stage, absolutely off the leash, both of them.”
This will not be the coronation some had expected.
History is still to be written.