ST. LOUIS — Here we go again.

The Toronto Maple Leafs general manager and team president jobs are vacant, and Doug Armstrong is likely on the team’s wish list.

This was also the case in 2023, when Toronto fired Kyle Dubas. Armstrong was under contract with the St. Louis Blues, and I wrote at the time that though it made sense for the Leafs, it made none for the Blues. They eventually hired Brad Treliving, and after three seasons of steps back under Treliving, they’re in the market for management again.

Naturally, Armstrong’s name quickly came up. He’s the front-runner on The Athletic’s list of early candidates.

This should be no surprise.

Toronto has become an embarrassment of a franchise on the ice, and Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment has to get its next steps right.

“This is the most important decision that I’m likely to make in my time at MLSE,” MLSE president Keith Pelley said Tuesday.

The Blues have fallen on hard times under Armstrong in the past few seasons, but as the NHL’s longest-tenured GM — with 1,600-plus games in the league — as well as one with a track record of success at the international level with Team Canada, the 61-year-old would be viewed as a solid hire.

The problem: This time, like last time, Armstrong is under contract with the Blues.

Armstrong is handing over GM duties to Alexander Steen beginning July 1 — an arrangement that was announced two years ago — but, under that same arrangement, Armstrong agreed to a three-year contract extension to stay on as president of hockey operations. He does not have an out clause in that contract, so MLSE would have to request and be granted permission to speak with him.

In 2023, it made no sense for St. Louis to grant that permission to Toronto and Armstrong, and three years later, it makes even less. That’s because when it came up the first time, the Blues could have — they wouldn’t have, but they could have — brought in another veteran GM to replace him. This time, the team is in the midst of transitioning to an inexperienced GM in Steen and will need Armstrong around more than ever.

Blues chairman Tom Stillman isn’t going to comment on a hypothetical situation, but to know his feelings on the subject, we can go back to his comments when the succession plan was brought to light in 2024.

It was Armstrong who came to Stillman with the idea of “a new voice,” and Stillman acknowledged that initially he was resistant. But after several conversations, he came around, and the convincing argument for him was that Armstrong would be sticking around.

“The way we’ve worked this out is we’re not losing the best general manager in the business,” Stillman said at the time. “He’s still going to be here to guide Alex, teach him how to do the job and oversee the job of president of hockey operations. To me, it seemed like this is the best of both worlds.”

The best of both worlds. 

And now, three months before that transition is scheduled to happen, we’re supposed to believe that Stillman is going to gift the mecca of the hockey world a chance to take that away from his organization?

This isn’t to say Armstrong wouldn’t have any interest in the Toronto job. It’s a high-profile gig, which he’s shown he can handle with Team Canada, and though the current landscape with the team would be a challenge, the reward, if he were able to bring success, would be an elevation of his legacy.

In March, Armstrong said he’s aware of the speculation but told The Athletic, “I can’t control what everyone else says and thinks. I understand it. (But) I don’t really want to get into it because it’s never-ending.”

Less than two weeks later, Armstrong told The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, “I do love a lot of the things that managers do — the building of a staff, the crossing with different parts of an organization to behold something that’s sustainable, to working with the athletes, to working with the coaches. … I’m 61. I’m not sure how you’re supposed to feel at 61, but I don’t feel ancient, I don’t feel out of touch. I don’t feel out of energy. Just out of a job.”

LeBrun noted he laughed as he said, “Just out of a job,” but Armstrong also said in that interview he felt like his management had “run its course” in St. Louis. That leads to the belief he might have wanted to manage elsewhere at some point.

Though Toronto would be intriguing, it shouldn’t be seen as an automatic he’d take the job, though. On Tuesday, Pelley said he didn’t foresee a rebuild for the Leafs because they already have “foundational pieces in place.” Is that how Armstrong sees the situation? Pelley said he wants a “data-centric” front office. Does Armstrong, whether it’s in a president or GM role, agree with that approach?

But it’s the timing of the opening that creates the most skepticism.

Pelley said the Leafs want to have someone in place by the NHL Draft combine in late May or early June. Armstrong is scheduled to run the Blues’ draft in late June.

Steen signed up for the promotion under the understanding Armstrong would be alongside him. Armstrong has said multiple times he wants to be for Steen what Bob Gainey was for him as a rookie GM with the Dallas Stars in the early 2000s.

So even if Stillman sensed Armstrong was interested in Toronto and went to him and, out of respect, asked: “Do you want to be here? I don’t want to keep you here if you don’t want to be here. Do you want to talk to Toronto?” — which is not completely out of the question — would Armstrong leave Steen in a difficult spot no one was planning for?

That seems doubtful.

And to stretch it out even further, if Armstrong joined the Leafs, might he want to take some Blues staff with him? Assistant general manager Tim Taylor? Assistant general manager and capologist Ryan Miller? There are tentacles to everything.

We’re talking about it again. But it still doesn’t make any sense.