Cameron Young last week. Tommy Fleetwood this? Well, it’s very much on the cards that for the second week running, one of the very best players yet to have won a PGA Tour event will finally silence the doubters.

You sense it won’t be as straightforward for Fleetwood as it was Young in last week’s 3M Open and that was soon apparent in round three when the Englishman’s halfway three-shot lead had turned into a two-stroke deficit in the space of seven holes on Saturday. ‘Here we go again’ he must have thought as playing partner Justin Rose roared to the top.

But Fleetwood overcame an ugly ‘7’ at the par-5 third hole and grabbed his lead back. Despite a bogey to Rose’s birdie at the last, he remains the man to catch and it’s 7/4 that, finally … finally … he secures that elusive first PGA Tour win. Fleetwood is 14-under after a 1-under 69 on Saturday while Rose, his nearest challenger and just one shot back, is 5/1 to lift the silverware.

But any idea that this would develop into a shootout between the two European Ryder Cup teammates was put to bed early by the ominous presence of World No.1 Scottie Scheffler who went from lurker to full on challenger via a 65. Six behind Fleetwood after 36 holes, Scheffler now trails by two. Some books even have him as very slight favourite, with 7/4 top price, as it is with Fleetwood.

Five-under 65 was also recorded by US Open champion J.J. Spaun and Oakmont should have taught us not to underestimate the American, who was also runner-up at Sawgrass earlier this season. Spaun is 11-under, three adrift, and shares tied fourth with compatriot Andrew Novak. Shop around and you’ll find Spaun at 14/1 and Novak at 18s.

History and common sense – it’s a further two strokes back to those in tied sixth – tell us that the champion comes from the top five. Overall, seven of the last 16 winners at Southwind had the lead/joint-lead after 54 holes, which is encouraging for Fleetwood. Only Daniel Berger was lower than fifth in that fairly decent sample but it was a crowded leaderboard in 2017 (the second of his two wins) and he was only three off the pace with a round to go. Since 2003 every winner on the par 70 was no more than four in arrears heading into Sunday.

While Fleetwood’s quest for glory is the main story for golf writers, for punters the main angle is whether Scheffler is worth taking on or is it just a case of backing him at 7/4 and being done with it. The worry for his rivals is that Scheffler’s putter is hot again, just as it was as Royal Portrush. The Texan ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting in his Open win and here he’s 3rd.

Fleetwood’s stats look solid, it has to be said. He ranks 2nd Tee To Green and Off The Tee, 6th on Approach and 7th for Putting. But backing him at under 2/1 when up against a hot putting Scheffler doesn’t seem great business. It’s one of those where many will be delighted to see him win without having to sweat over trying to land a 7/4 shot.

Which leads us to JUSTIN ROSE and J.J. SPAUN as the bets here. Scheffler’s presence on the leaderboard can be viewed either with a ‘game over’ eyeroll or as an opportunity to cash in on big odds for those around him. Fleetwood, fancied pre-tournament, isn’t that man at 7/4 but Rose certainly is at 5s.

Rose arrived in Memphis in fine form after sixth in the Scottish Open and 16th in The Open and he’s been talking a confident game all week. After cutting Fleetwood’s lead to one at the last, he said on Saturday: “The birdie for me on 18 with a two-shot swing with Tommy makes me walk off the golf course feeling like it was a good day’s work.

“I knew Scottie was 12-under. I was 12-under playing the last. I knew it would be nice to play with Tommy on Sunday. Tommy is probably happy I’m playing with him on Sunday rather than Scottie, too, so he was probably cheering that birdie I would imagine just because it’s a comfortable environment for the two of us to play.” Maybe Rose is owed one after losing a playoff to Rory McIlroy at Augusta. Let’s back him on the nose at 5/1.

There are only two each-way slots and that’s why Spaun is being dangled at 14s. But while Fleetwood has huge pressure on him, this is surely something of a free hit for Spaun after he shocked the golfing world in June. No-one has played better Tee To Green so he’ll need the putter to heat up but that’s not out of the question.

Spaun once shot 62 at Southwind and he closed with a 67 the last time he played here in 2023. His last two Sunday scores are 63 at the Travelers Championship and 68 at Royal Portrush so that’s another plus. Fleetwood and Scheffler may be hard to beat but in Rose and Spaun we’ve got two classy operators to take them on with.

Posted at 1452 BST on 10/08/25