This weekend (Sat., April 4, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return home to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 115. Remember how fun UFC Seattle was, all those explosive finishes and bloody wars? Lower your expectations. We’re back in the Apex, and though I’m happy to see Chris Duncan receive his hard-earned step up in competition versus veteran contender Renato Moicano, the Lightweight scrap doesn’t have the feel of a high-profile main event. There’s some definite trash on this card, though I can pick out at least a gem or two as well
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event:
Brazilian-American Mackenzie Dern (R) fights Brazil’s Virna Jandiroba during their strawweight bout at UFC 321 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on October 25, 2025. (Photo by Giuseppe CACACE / AFP) (Photo by GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images
Strawweight: Virna Jandiroba (-106) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-120)
Best Win for Jandiroba? Yan Xiaonan For Ricci? Amanda Ribas
Current Streak: Jandiroba lost her last bout, whereas Ricci returned to the win column
X-Factor: Ricci has generally done quite well against opponents who try to take her down
How these two match up: Highly ranked Strawweights look to make some noise in the title mix.
Jandiroba’s second loss to Mackenzie Dern in a world-title fight was one of the more baffling performances in recent memory. The jiu-jitsu ace quite literally lost by getting boxed up from a fighter in bottom position! I understand Dern is a great grappler, but Jandiroba could have a belt around her waist if she just threw a couple elbows and otherwise held on.
Meanwhile, Ricci has consistently climbed the ladder on the strength of her well-rounded game. She may be undersized for the division, but Ricci has the athleticism to bounce in-and-out with punches as well as high-level Judo skill.
I expect Ricci to sprawl-and-brawl here, as she’s going to be the quicker, more dynamic striker. Unfortunately, I’m not sure she has what it takes to consistently stop the Jandiroba shot, and “Carcara” is an excellent top control fighter. I don’t like to rely on MMA math, but Jandiroba was able to soundly out-wrestle Xiaonan, whereas “Baby Shark” couldn’t land a single meaningful takedown.
Generally, it’s tough being the smaller fighter against a bigger, better grappler. Even with her athleticism edge, I’m not sure Ricci will be landing with the kind of power it takes to deter Jandiroba.
Prediction: Jandiroba via decision
DOHA, QATAR – NOVEMBER 22: (L-R) Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev of Russia punches Rafael Cerquiera of Brazil in a light heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at ABHA Arena on November 22, 2025 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Light Heavyweight: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1400) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+680)
Best Win for Yakhyaev? Raffael Cerqueira For Ribeiro? Diyar Nurgozhay
Current Streak: Yakhyaev is 1-0 in the UFC, while Ribeiro has lost two straight
X-Factor: Maybe Yakhyaev slips on a banana peel?
How these two match up: This is a setup fight if I’ve ever seen one.
A setup fight, of course, has two halves. On one side, there’s the highly touted prospect finishing everyone. In this case, that’s Yakhyaev, a 25-year-old from Chechnya with seven stoppage victories in eight wins. Then, on the other side of the equation stands more veteran fighter with proven flaws. That would be Ribeiro, the Muay Thai striker whose only UFC victory comes via … kimura?
Look, Ribeiro’s wrestling is trash, and his standup isn’t that great either. I don’t know yet if Yakhyaev is the future of the division, but he doesn’t have to be to win this quickly. Cerqueira is a very similar level of fighter to Ribeiro, and Yakhyaev choked him out in 33 seconds.
Add another highlight reel to the montage.
Prediction: Yakhyaev via submission
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 15: Ethyn Ewing of the United States (R) punches Malcolm Wellmaker of the United States during UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden on November 15, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images) Getty Images
Bantamweight: Rafael Estevam (+130) vs. Ethyn Ewing (-166)
Best Win for Estevam? Charles Johnson For Ewing? Malcolm Wellmaker
Current Streak: Estevam is 3-0 in the UFC, whereas Ewing recently won his UFC debut on short-notice in a spectacular performance
X-Factor: This is Estevam’s first fight up at 135 pounds after being booted from the Flyweight ranks
How these two match up: Now this is a great matchup!
Estevam definitely proved his skills at 125 pounds even if he struggled with the weight cut. Though the Nova Uniao camp is known for its defensive wrestling, Estevam has proven a tremendously sticky wrestler, scoring lots of takedowns and control time in his trio of UFC wins. Ewing has a wrestling background as well but is more of a boxer than anything else. He builds smart combinations and stays ready to fire in all ranges, allowing him to chain together his offense well.
Regardless of backgrounds, this very much feels like a wrestler vs. striker matchup. Estevam is going to try to contain Ewing on the canvas, whereas Ewing will try to push the pace and put numbers in his opponent’s face. As mentioned, the real x-factor here is how well Estevam’s strength and control will translate up a division. He’s definitely good enough to drag down Ewing, but holding him on the canvas may prove more difficult in the long run.
Ultimately, I really liked the look of Ewing in his debut. The way he chained wrestling into punches and vice versa was very impressive to watch from a man with just 11 professional bouts. He appears to have a solid understanding of range and shot selection, which should be beneficial against a man intent on taking him down.
Estevam is a very different test than Wellmaker, but I expect Ewing to pass nevertheless.
Prediction: Ewing via decision
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – SEPTEMBER 02: Tommy McMillen punches David Mgoyan of Russia in a featherweight fight during Dana White’s Contender Series season nine, week four at UFC APEX on September 02, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
Featherweight: Tommy McMillen (-1000) vs. Manolo Zecchini(+700)
Best Win for McMillen? David Mgoyan For Zecchini? Abou Tounkara
Current Streak: McMillen debuts at 9-0, whereas Zecchini is 0-1 in the UFC
X-Factor: Zecchini hasn’t fought since September 2023
How these two match up: What did I just say about setup fights?
Joking aside, this isn’t quite as flagrant as Yakhyaev vs. Ribeiro above, even if the UFC’s overall intentions are the same. McMillen has proven himself less than Yakhyaev, as the flashy young striker hasn’t beaten anyone particularly good in his young career. There’s definitely a bit of team mate Sean O’Malley to his style, but it remains to be seen if he has anywhere near the same potential.
As for Zecchini? I’m not really sure how he ended up on the UFC roster in the first place. His overall level of competition is just not that great, and his sole UFC appearance was a one-sided drubbing. That said, he certainly does hit hard, which makes him a live dog here.
Like most young strikers, defense is still something of an afterthought for “Tommy Gun.”
That said, he should be the man dropping the hammer here, so I’m not sure it will be a problem. McMillen is faster and more fluid on the feet, and he’s going to have significant edges in height and reach. Combined with his distance management skills, McMillen likely controls most of the exchanges and only gets into trouble once or twice across 15 minutes.
The odds feel excessive, but I still expect a debut victory for the up-and-comer from Arizona.
Prediction: McMillen via decision
‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2026: 16-10
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