According to the stats nerds at Football Meets Data Tony Popovic and the Socceroos are about to head into an almighty group stage showdown at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Based on a series of proprietary simulations and probabilities, it calculates that Group D will be the tightest of the entire 48-team tournament as Australia goes toe-to-toe with Türkiye, Paraguay and co-hosts the USA.
All four teams have a greater than 62% to qualify for the second round.
But on the flip-side each team also has at least a 23% chance of missing out altogether.
MORE: Schedule, roster and more to know about Australia for 2026 World Cup draw
Despite being the last team to qualify for Group D, Türkiye are slight favourites to win the group (32.7% probability) ahead of Paraguay (27.1%).
Meanwhile, the USA and Australia are tipped to be fighting it out for the all-important third place that should be enough to gain qualification for the knock-out phase—making their June 19 showdown in Seattle a critical moment in the tournament for both nations.
The 27th-ranked Socceroos begin their World Cup campaign in Vancouver against 22nd-ranked Türkiye on June 13 (Canada time).
🤏 This is the tightest group of them all.
📉 Lowest average xPts for group winner, 📈 highest average for 4th-placed team!
🇹🇷🇵🇾🇺🇸🇦🇺 All four teams with >60% to qualify for R32!
👉 All probabilities and projections available in our 🕹️ Simulator pic.twitter.com/JLgSJQn8Tx
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) April 1, 2026Socceroos FIFA World Cup 2026 schedule
Date
Opponent
Location
Time
Saturday, June 13
Türkiye
Vancouver
2:00 p.m. (Sunday June 14 AEST)
Friday, June 19
USA
Seattle
5:00 a.m. (Saturday June 20, AEST)
Thursday, 25 June
Paraguay
San Francisco
12:00 p.m. (Friday, 26 June, AEST)