NHL Betting Preview: Lightning vs Senators
The Tampa Bay Lightning square off against the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Tuesday, April 7.
Lightning and Sens to Serve Up Goals Frenzy
The Lightning go up against the Senators and we’re expecting the teams to surpass 6.5 goals. Our betting prediction is to back the Over selection at -100.
Lightning 4-2 Winners in Most Recent H2H
Tampa Bay Lightning have now lost back-to-back road games. In their previous game, Buffalo Sabres won 4-2 at KeyBank Center. Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel scored one goal apiece.
Ottawa Senators last game saw them claim a 6-3 home win over Carolina Hurricanes at Canadian Tire Centre. Tim Stutzle had 2 points, including 1 goal and 1 assist.
Head-to-Head Statistics
It was a 4-2 win for the Lightning at Benchmark International Arena when they last played the Sens. The past 10 H2H games have seen the Sens land six wins.
Starting Goalies
Jonas Johansson (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
11-9-2
3.2
.886
0
23/24
12-7-5
3.37
.890
2
Linus Ullmark (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
25-12-8
2.9
.886
2
23/24
22-10-5
2.57
.915
2
Tampa Bay Lightning – Last 10 Games
6 wins, 2 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.6 goals from 29.4 shots on goal, with a 10.7% powerplay efficiency. The Lightning have given up 2.9 goals from 25.7 shots, averaging 5.6 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 92.9%.
Jake Guentzel is the top points scorer with 15 points, 7 goals and 8 assists, with Nikita Kucherov racking up 12 points, 5 goals and 7 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.39 goal against average with a .902 save percentage.
Ottawa Senators – Last 10 Games
The Sens have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.2 goals from 29.8 shots on goal, with a 15.4% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.8 goals from 24.7 shots, averaging 3.8 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 86.8%.
The top points scorer is Brady Tkachuk with 8 points, 4 goals and 4 assists, while Tim Stutzle is next best after having 8 points, 2 goals and 6 assists. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 3.16 GAA with a .888 SV%.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators Prediction & Picks
Step into Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators with confidence as we bring you our expert match prediction, projected scoreline, best player prop picks and a custom-built bet builder.
Game Prediction
The best play could be to take the -100 on offer that the Overs line is covered in this NHL clash. We think this pick represents great value.
Our expert hockey predictions always start with checking the latest team news and understanding how it might impact the matchup. From there, we dive into the most valuable NHL stats to uncover the insights that matter most.
Key Lightning vs Senators stats:
The 6.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 Lightning games on the road.The 6.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Lightning games on the road.The 6.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Senators games at home.Over 6.5 Probability
According to the latest odds, our pick has a 50% chance of winning. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
Want more juice from your Over bet when it comes to Total betting? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier wager. You can choose from a range of options.
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Our Game Prediction
Over 6.5 Goals @ -100
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Published 00:56, 07 April 2026
Player Prop Picks
Shane Pinto (Senators) has finished with Over 1.5 shots on goal in 5 straight home games. The stats suggest that he can oblige with our Overs wager and we’re more than happy to take the -161 available.
Latest Shane Pinto Player Prop Odds
Goals
Assists
Shots on Goal
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Sens Betting Favorites on the Moneyline
Ottawa Senators are -133 favorites and that means a 57% chance of winning this game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Tampa Bay Lightning are trading at +112.
1.5 is where the puck line lies, with total goals being 6.5 right now. Hockey bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on Totals. If you want to back Over 6.5, it’s -104.
If you’re planning to wager on a National Hockey League matchup, visit the best sportsbooks and check out the hundreds of team props and game lines. Find the odds and betting lines which are the most attractive.
Nikita Kucherov Favorite to Be First Goalscorer
You will find Nikita Kucherov at +1100 to be First Goalscorer which makes him the favorite. There’s the chance to get +160 that he finds the net at anytime.
Player Goals
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Brady Tkachuk (Senators)
Brayden Point (Lightning)
Player Assists
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Tim Stützle (Senators)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Jake Sanderson (Senators)
Player Shots
Brady Tkachuk (Senators)
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Dylan Cozens (Senators)
Micro Betting
An increasing number of bettors are now enjoying micro betting on the NHL and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Tampa Bay Lightning Stats
Ottawa Senators Stats
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games
+1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
+1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road
-1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
-1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 home games
Game Totals: An average of 6.50 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 7.80 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 2.90 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 4.00 pts and allowed 3.80 goals in the last 10 games on the road
Game Totals: An average of 6.10 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
Over 6.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed 2.90 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.40 goals and allowed 2.50 goals in the last 10 home games
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 29.4
Goals Shorthanded: 0.3
Penalties: 5.6
Empty Net Goals: 0.5
Penalty Minutes: 13.5
Blocks: 17.4
Faceoff Wins : 26.9
Hits: 19.2
Giveaways: 15.5
Takeaways: 3.9
Last 10 Games on the Road
Goals Powerplay: 0.7
Shots: 28.6
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 4.9
Empty Net Goals: 0.3
Penalty Minutes: 14.1
Blocks: 14.1
Faceoff Wins : 28
Hits: 21.7
Giveaways: 15.5
Takeaways: 4.3
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 29.8
Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
Penalties: 3.8
Empty Net Goals: 0.3
Penalty Minutes: 9.6
Blocks: 11.9
Faceoff Wins : 31.3
Hits: 24.6
Giveaways: 16.2
Takeaways: 5.3
Last 10 Home Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.8
Shots: 30.3
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 3.5
Empty Net Goals: 0.4
Penalty Minutes: 9.8
Blocks: 14.8
Faceoff Wins : 31.8
Hits: 27.6
Giveaways: 15
Takeaways: 5.7
Starting Lineups
Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.
Expert Analysis by Robert Carter
NHL Analyst
About the Analyst
Our ice hockey previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our hockey panel and Editor-in-Chief.
NHL Predictions Methodology
Our NHL analysis combines the latest team news, injury reports and line changes with recent form and market movement. We factor in situational analysis like home ice advantage and schedule spots. Metrics such as Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xG) and PDO are used to evaluate puck possession, shot quality, goaltending performance and special teams efficiency beyond the traditional box score.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Apr 7, 02:28 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, confirmed lines and pairings, starting goaltenders, lineup changes, schedule context, key performance metrics and odds movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our game predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
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