Today would have been the opening day of practice for the Bahrain Grand Prix, the first leg of a Middle Eastern double-header with Saudi Arabia.
Instead Formula 1 is in the midst of a five-week break, having called off both events owing to the war in the Middle East.
The cancellation of both races seemed inevitable from the moment the United States and Israel attacked Iran in what subsequently became a region-wide conflict. Formula 1 waited as late as it could to make a call on whether it could hold either race but eventually committed to cancelling both almost a month ago.
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The seemingly early call wasn’t about an abundance of caution but rather logistical necessity.
F1 logistics are a complex and intricate combination of both sea and air travel set in motion often months in advance for races outside of Europe. The announcement was made just days before a hard deadline after which equipment would have been sent from the teams’ factories to the Middle East.
Formula 1 could make a call with only the information it had at hand at the time, which was that the situation was deteriorating by the day. It was unequivocally the right decision given the alternative was to risk competing in an active war zone or, at best, risk logistical chaos that might have compromised other races during the year had the races been axed with teams in the departure lounge.
The fact a two-week ceasefire apparently applying to only part of the region is now in effect does not alter the validity of F1’s action.
The sport has taken a financial hit from the decision. By calling off both events, it has forfeited two hosting fees — and Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are among the most lucrative grands prix in regular rotation.
According to a report from financial services firm Guggenheim Partners, the two races contributed around US$115 million (A$162.6 million) annually to F1 coffers.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the sport’s share price fell 7.3 per cent, from US$87.82 to US$81.42, in the week following the cancellation, its lowest level in almost a year.
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The financial loss represents just under 14 per cent of F1’s US$824 million (A$1.17 billion) revenue stream from race hosting contracts alone.
But Formula 1 is in rude financial health. Its total revenue in 2025 was a head-turning US$3.87 billion (A$5.54 billion).
It demonstrates the sport’s gradual and deliberate move away from reliance on race hosting fees.
Previously F1 income was roughly equally divided between hosting fees, broadcast rights and sponsorship. Today hosting fees make up only around 21 per cent of the sport’s revenue.
That’s not because hosting contracts have decreased in value — in fact the opposite is true. Instead it’s because Formula 1 has diversified its income stream with more sponsorship and marketing deals in particular.
Combined with still-lucrative hosting fees on increasingly long-term contracts, Formula 1 is far better placed today than it’s ever been to take these sorts of hits and continue to thrive.
It also explains why neither race was replaced.
Quite aside from the complex logistics of setting up a race on short notice, F1 was never going to find a venue willing to pay Middle Eastern prices, but it would still have had to spend money — as would have the teams — to put on a show. Financially a last-minute race didn’t stack up.
Formula 1 will miss the revenue and will have to rebuild some momentum after such a long break so early in the season, but when the sport turns up in Miami in May, it’ll be back to business as usual.
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WHAT ABOUT LATER IN THE SEASON?
The same is unlikely to be said, however, if the sport is forced into a similar decision-making process later in the year.
The Formula 1 calendar remains exposed to conflict in the Middle East. Not only is it planning on ending the season with the Qatar and Abu Dhabi grands prix on 27–29 November and 4–6 December respectively, but Azerbaijan has also been drawn into the fray over the last month, and the sport is set to race in Baku on 24–26 September.
There are obviously far, far more important reasons for the world to hold its breath as the various belligerents negotiate to extend their prevailing ceasefire beyond its current two-week time frame.
From the relatively insignificant Formula 1 perspective, however, any resumption of hostilities that last deep into the year could force it to face questions about the championship’s integrity.
Say, for example, that we end up with a similar outcome to last season, with two drivers at the front of the field being rapidly hunted down by a third driver.
Last year it was Max Verstappen chasing Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. This year it could be the Mercedes teammates being pursued by the McLaren or Ferrari drivers.
Had Azerbaijan, Qatar and Abu Dhabi been called off without replacements, Verstappen would have been eliminated from title contention after the Mexico City Grand Prix, with two rounds still remaining. Norris would have won the title in Las Vegas, even after both he and Piastri were disqualified for plank wear.
The specifics of the championship fight aren’t what’s relevant, however; it’s that the championship permutations might suddenly change late in the piece.
Imagine, for example, if George Russell and Kimi Antonelli were split by 26 points after the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, when there should still be three rounds remaining. If the last two races were then called off without replacement, whichever driver was ahead would be instantly declared the champion.
It would be an even more difficult scenario to accept if the second-placed driver had been closing rapidly, like Verstappen was last year.
It’s for this reason Formula 1 will surely be contemplating contingency plans for these races if hostilities in the region resume.
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WHAT WOULD THE OPTIONS BE?
Logistically, however, it’s easier said than done.
The Middle East has long been international motorsport’s default location to beef-up calendars, and for good reasons: the circuits are well maintained, the facilities are world-class and the weather is predictable, particularly given all tracks are set up to host night racing to escape the daytime desert heat.
Even during the 2020 pandemic season Formula 1 hosted three grands prix in the Middle East.
Obviously none of the four venues would be available in this scenario, leaving Europe — both for logistics and availability — the clear fallback.
Azerbaijan would be the easiest race to replace. It sits on its own in the schedule, with a week off on either side, and it’s the first race after the European season. While the hurdle of organising a last-minute replacement would still have to be cleared, there’s a window for another European race to be held without massively altering the existing logistical equation.
You would expect to hear many of the familiar names in the mix: Portimao, which will return to the calendar in 2027; Imola, which dropped off the calendar last year; and Istanbul, which is constantly rumoured as being in line for a return, albeit without significant substance.
Replacing Qatar and Abu Dhabi, however, would be more complex.
European winter is setting in by late November and early December even among the southern continental circuits. Average daytime temperatures are in the low teens and daylight hours are shorter — the sun sets at around 4:30pm in Imola at that time of year, for example.
Would the unfavourable conditions outweigh the ease of logistics? If that’s the case, the sport might look to available circuits outside of Europe.
The choices would be restricted by the fact most FIA-approved permanent tracks are in the northern hemisphere, but we can speculate freely on a few.
Malaysia’s Sepang circuit would fit the bill. Formula 1 knows the venue well, having raced there 19 times between 1999 and 2017. The venue is still well used, including by MotoGP, so would be up to standard for a grand prix, and being situated on the doorstep of Kuala Lumpur’s international airport would ease logistical considerations.
Sao Paulo could end up in the frame, though weather-prone Interlagos only gets wetter later in the year, while tracks just north of the equator in Mexico City and Austin could put up their hands, though all three Americas venues would be logistically difficult.
Formula 1 will be hoping it doesn’t need to activate any late-season contingency plans, not least because it would mean the war in the Middle East has ended, an outcome the whole world should be hoping for.
But you can be sure it’s considering its options for another worst-case scenario.