DETROIT — Safe to say a four-game sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins in April is not what you’re looking for.
But does the Tigers’ 4-9 start actually signal deeper issues?
Are there real problems with the Tigers’ core players? Or are early-season emotions sparking unnecessary outrage?
Here’s a look at what readers want to know.
Questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
I’m concerned about several players and it goes back to last season, not just (13) games. Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Gleyber Torres are all struggling to hit, all look slow, none hit well in the second half. Small sample alarmism or real issues? — Tim D.
This is a tough question to address. We’ll start with Torres. He entered Thursday with a .393 on-base percentage. He’s not slugging yet, but if he’s working walks and mostly having good at-bats, it’s pretty hard to be upset with that. His defense is what it is, which means it’s not good. It’s possible there’s no real upside left in his bat. But he has a .330 lifetime OBP and should still project as about a 2- or 3-WAR second baseman, which is pretty good.
Greene and Torkelson are more complicated. They are victims of high expectations and even their own success. These were highly touted guys expected to be the future of the franchise. In some ways, they’ve met that, typically hitting in the middle of the order, helping lead back-to-back playoff appearances. That shouldn’t be lost.
But as they get more established, it’s clear both are imperfect players. We’ll get to Greene’s speed and defensive declines in a second. But he entered Thursday hitting .208 over his past 87 MLB games, dating to July 2 of last season. Safe to say that is a very bad stretch and not just a small sample. Also worth pointing out: He’s actually reached base safely in every game this season.
Torkelson has been a bit better in that same timeframe (since July 2). He’s hitting .242 with 14 home runs. The way he’s struggled every other year in his career is strange. Perhaps we can find some perspective if we stop viewing Torkelson as a future Hall of Famer and just accepting him for what he is — a solid first baseman with good power. A good player, but maybe not a great one.
The reason Torkelson and Greene get so much flak is because they’re both very talented and were expected to be great. Greene is a two-time All-Star. Torkelson is a first baseman with 30-homer power. Neither is perfect, but we should remember almost every team would be happy to have these guys in their lineup.
Obviously, though, they need to get going before it’s too late.
One, will Riley be anything more than a DH in the future due to his limited defensive abilities? Will he ever change his hitting strategy with runners in scoring position due to his complete and utter failure over the years? — Stan W.
It’s early, but we should note Greene’s average sprint speed has slightly ticked up from 26.7 feet per second last year to 27 feet per second this season. That’s still a far cry from the 28.1 he was at back in 2023. Greene’s speed decline absolutely has me worried about what this looks like in a few more years. But I do think he’s capable of being better than the minus-7 Defensive Runs Saved he was worth last season.
Also, frustrating as he can look at times, Greene entered Thursday as a career .271 hitter with a .777 OPS with runners in scoring position. It’s just not true to say he’s bad in those spots. He entered Thursday 5-for-13 (.385) with RISP this year!
Unfortunately, several ugly at-bats in high-pressure moments (and a couple of pitches he should have challenged) have caused people to think Riley is inept with runners on base, even though that’s not actually true. He struggled badly last season in key moments — hitting .128 in “late and close” situations — but it’s not always as bad as it seems.
How does the team fix its putrid approach at the plate, especially with runners in scoring position? — Scott V.
The Tigers entered Thursday’s game with a .320 average with runners in scoring position, the very best in baseball. Their 22.5 percent strikeout rate in those scenarios was the 13th highest — so not great, but also not terrible. Even last season, they ranked 10th with a .258 average with runners in scoring position.
Have the Tigers been playing their best baseball? Clearly not. Are their long stretches of scoreless innings frustrating? Absolutely. Have they missed out on a few big opportunities? You bet.
But it’s funny how the emotions of a few bad at-bats can obscure the whole picture.
The biggest issue with this offense has probably been the lack of home-run power. Interestingly, though, Tigers hitters are performing pretty well in a lot of underlying metrics. There’s a pretty sizable gap between the team’s actual slugging percentage (.361) and its expected slugging percentage (.408).
At this point, we should probably mention how pitching has been as big a problem — if not bigger. The Tigers entered Thursday’s game with a 4.40 ERA. Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez both had rough starts in Minnesota. Those guys are good enough that they should be fine. But the Tigers need their staff as a whole to be close to elite to make up for some of the offensive holes. So far, that has not been the case.
Besides Kevin McGonigle and Colt Keith, what positives have you seen from the offense? Is there any hope for reinforcements for middle relief? — Matt T.
So there’s a really nerdy stat called xwBAcon (expected weighted on-base average on contact) that uses exit velocity and launch angle to measure quality of contact. The Tigers rank fifth in the league right now with a .382 xwOBAcon. Tigers hitters also aren’t whiffing as much as you might expect. The team’s 25 percent whiff rate as of Thursday was only the 20th highest. I’m not sure a 13-game sample can tell us too much, good or bad, about this team. But again, there are numbers that suggest the offense is performing better than it might feel like at times.
The short answer to the second part of your question is yes. Relief pitching is volatile by nature, and the Tigers planned for that with all the minor-league deals they signed this winter. Many of those pitchers did not have good springs. But I’d expect some of them to be useful at various points this season. Although Drew Anderson and Enmanuel De Jesus haven’t been sharp, Connor Seabold hasn’t surrendered one earned run.
I think we’ll see Drew Sommers at some point this season. Brenan Hanifee is a reliable option waiting for the call. Burch Smith had a strong spring, and Ricky Vanasco has struck out 14 batters over his first 6 2/3 innings in Toledo.
Overall, I see this two ways. I don’t always love how the Tigers prioritize quantity over quality when it comes to arms. Nobody waiting in Toledo has sky-high upside. I’ve heard multiple scouts gasp at the lack of high-quality relief pitching in the upper levels of the system.
But given injuries and the general randomness of middle relief, the Tigers’ approach makes sense. They have plenty of options they can turn to, even if none of them are super exciting at first glance.
I could see the Tigers running into bullpen issues as the season drags on. Their approach is still better than the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are just rolling without a single left-hander in their bullpen.
If the Tigers decided to trade Torkelson, what kind of trade value do you think he has? Could we get a Triple-A pitching prospect that might become a fourth or fifth starter, for example? I raise the issue because Keith can play first base and so can farmhands Josue Briceño and Thayron Liranzo. — Blake
We probably shouldn’t be talking about trading players 13 games into the season, but if that’s what you guys are talking about, I’ll address the question.
One of the issues with the urge to blow up the Tigers’ existing core is the fact that many of these players have more value to the Tigers than they would elsewhere. Teams might like to have some of these players, but that doesn’t mean they would give up meaningful assets to acquire them. Greene, assuming he doesn’t lose all defensive value, would have the most appeal to other teams. He’s also arguably the Tigers’ best hitter!
Teams could argue Kerry Carpenter is nothing more than a platoon bat, and thus it would be tough for the Tigers to get much.
Torkelson is interesting because he still profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat for plenty of teams. He’s also a right-handed first baseman whose best tool is power. Rarely do you see teams give up much for that. It’s a profile that tends to age poorly (see: Christian Walker). It’s also a profile that can be easily replaced for cheap (see: Rhys Hoskins on the Guardians.)
Could the Tigers get a mildly intriguing arm for a player like Torkelson, if they ever wanted to make such a move? Probably. But I’m not sure they would get much more.
And maybe that gets to the point of this whole discussion.
Which current everyday player do you envision being here in three years besides McGonigle and Keith? Does the club ever look to take action beyond coaching for the poor strike zone plate discipline? — Daniel G.
Dillon Dingler, for sure. We should probably have more appreciation for how quickly Dingler has blossomed into one of the game’s top catchers.
Another way to think about Greene and Torkleson is this: They’re both good players, but perhaps not the type who will warrant lucrative contract extensions. As you mentioned, Keith will still be under contract in three years. If his breakout continues, he could look like quite a value — assuming he eventually settles into some sort of defensive home.
The fact that the Tigers don’t have other core players who project to still be here in three to four years isn’t necessarily unusual. You could even argue it’s a good thing the Tigers don’t have aging, expensive players who will bog them down years into the future.
There is eventually some reshaping to do here. And there is plenty riding on McGonigle, Max Clark and Bryce Rainer becoming the players they’re projected to be. When it comes to plate discipline, the Tigers have hope the next wave of prospects will have a better profile when it comes to contact and pitch selection. Those players are the next torchbearers for the franchise — just as Greene and Torkelson once were only a few short years ago.
Sometimes baseball is just a tough cycle.