MLB betting tips for Friday: Dustin May ready to face struggling Red Sox

Derek CartyApr 10, 2026, 09:29 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Friday’s top batter prop bets

Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 HR (+920)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Wrigley Field has the ninth-shallowest fences in the majors. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallower fences.

Jose Altuve | OVER 0.5 RBI (+231)
Projection: 34% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.44 EV
One reason to bet this: Altuve has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season, up to an average 87.2 mph from last season’s 85.1.

Carter Jensen | UNDER 0.5 H (+200)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $32.45 EV
One reason to bet this: The Chicago White Sox have the fourth-strongest infield defense in MLB, which should help to limit hits.

Friday’s top pitcher prop bets

Chase Burns | UNDER 1.5 ER (+109)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.18 EV
One reason to bet this: Burns has had some very poor luck with his ERA since debuting last season as his 3.81 rate is inflated compared to his 2.69 FIP.

J.T. Ginn | UNDER 1.5 ER (+109)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Citi Field profiles as the No. 26 park in MLB for batting average.

Dustin May | OVER 4.5 K (-126)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.17 EV
One reason to bet this: Expected starting catcher Pedro Pages grades out as a good pitch framer.

Patrick Corbin | OVER 2.5 ER (+124)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.67 EV
One reason to bet this: As a unit, Minnesota Twins batters have recorded a 15.6-degree launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced stat to measure power skills) since the start of last season, fourth-best in MLB.

THE BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Carmen Mlodzinski

+129

38.3

-12.06

+1.0

-122

-10.49

6.5

O -122

6.36

-11.00

Shota Imanaga

-156

61.8

1.09

-1.0

-106

-1.26

U +102

3.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mike Soroka

+153

37.1

-7.30

+1.0

+105

-6.99

8.5

O -108

8.24

-17.94

Jesus Luzardo

-186

63.0

-2.58

-1.0

-137

-5.49

U -112

8.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Paddack

+123

48.2

7.91

+1.0

-120

7.47

8.5

O -115

8.79

-12.06

Keider Montero

-149

51.8

-13.75

-1.0

-108

-20.31

U -105

3.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jack Kochanowicz

+159

34.4

-13.26

+1.5

-131

-13.03

9.0

O -108

9.35

-10.54

Chase Burns

-194

65.7

0.79

-1.5

+109

5.92

U -112

1.36

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Simeon Woods Richard

+119

48.3

5.65

+1.0

-125

3.75

9.0

O -121

9.73

-9.63

Patrick Corbin

-143

51.7

-12.04

-1.0

-104

-16.91

U +101

1.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Luis Gil

-149

55.8

-5.88

-1.0

-120

-8.55

8.0

O -118

9.08

-0.46

Steven Matz

+123

44.2

-2.59

+1.0

-108

-3.47

U -102

-8.66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

J.T. Ginn

+129

45.5

4.93

+1.0

-117

5.46

8.5

O -108

7.50

-29.34

Clay Holmes

-156

54.5

-11.09

-1.0

-111

-18.00

U -112

19.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Landen Roupp

+104

50.5

3.90

+1.0

-149

3.21

8.5

O -112

8.37

-17.55

Shane Baz

-126

49.5

-11.99

-1.0

+114

-18.17

U -108

8.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slade Cecconi

+113

44.9

-4.77

+1.0

-135

-6.05

8.5

O -115

9.35

-3.42

Bryce Elder

-136

55.1

-4.06

-1.0

+104

-6.10

U -105

-5.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Davis Martin

+149

34.8

-14.69

+1.0

-101

-15.30

8.0

O -115

8.11

-14.11

Kris Bubic

-181

65.2

2.06

-1.0

-128

2.32

U -105

5.55

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jake Irvin

+169

39.8

6.20

+1.5

-131

1.53

8.0

O -108

8.56

-4.30

Chad Patrick

-207

60.2

-10.24

-1.5

+109

-11.34

U -112

-4.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Connelly Early

-149

56.7

-3.68

-1.0

-116

-6.13

7.5

O -105

7.61

-10.78

Dustin May

+123

43.3

-5.54

+1.0

-112

-6.13

U -115

1.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tatsuya Imai

+119

45.9

0.15

+1.0

-133

-3.31

7.5

O -105

9.28

16.23

Emerson Hancock

-143

54.1

-7.78

-1.0

+102

-9.48

U -115

-24.34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomoyuki Sugano

+153

41.8

4.94

+1.0

+105

3.44

8.0

O -118

9.06

-0.29

Walker Buehler

-186

58.2

-10.02

-1.0

-137

-14.30

U -102

-8.84

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kumar Rocker

+194

33.6

-3.86

+1.5

-105

-6.38

9.0

O -114

9.59

-8.79

Tyler Glasnow

-240

66.4

-4.66

-1.5

-115

-2.69

U -105

0.37

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Toronto has gone under for this bet in nine consecutive games. (+9.05 Units / 76% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -125

Atlanta Braves Game Total UNDER:
The Braves have seen the game total go under in eight straight home contests. (+8.00 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ -105

St. Louis Cardinals Team Total OVER:
The Cardinals have outscored the team total in five consecutive games. (+5.10 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +120

Cincinnati Reds Team Total UNDER:
In nine of their last 10 home games, the Reds have fallen short of their team total. (+7.65 Units / 58% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ +100