Derek CartyApr 12, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

CloseDerek Carty is a contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN. Derek is a four-time LABR and one-time Tout Wars champion.

Multiple Authors

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Sunday’s top batter prop bets

Munetaka Murakami | OVER 0.5 HR (+660)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $36.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past seven days, Murakami’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 100.2 mph over the course of the season to 102.3 mph recently.

James Wood | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.31 EV
One reason to bet this: The eighth-shallowest center field fences in MLB are found in American Family Field.

Luis Torrens | UNDER 0.5 H (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.24 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Torrens ranks in just the fifth percentile with a 6.5-degree launch angle, which is one of the lowest angles in the game.

Sunday’s top pitcher prop bets

Nick Pivetta | OVER 7.5 K (+113)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.10 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 5 venue in baseball for boosting strikeouts, via my projections, is Petco Park.

Andrew Painter | UNDER 2.5 ER (-149)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.24 EV
One reason to bet this: This contest is predicted to have the second-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Chris Sale | OVER 6.5 K (-146)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.42 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9 mph in this matchup, the second-most-favorable of the day for hurlers.

The BAT X: Team Projections

PITCHER

MONEY
LINE

PROJ.
WIN%

VALUE %

RUN
LINE

OV

VALUE %

GAME
TOTAL

O/U

xRUNS

VALUE %

Zac Gallen

+119

42.0

-8.39

+1.0

-128

-8.14

8.5

O -108

8.27

-17.44

Andrew Painter

-143

58.0

-1.15

-1.0

-101

-3.62

U -112

8.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adrian Houser

+104

43.1

-12.36

+1.0

-146

-11.59

8.5

O -105

8.76

-8.71

Cade Povich

-126

56.9

2.31

-1.0

+112

0.76

U -115

-0.46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taj Bradley

+104

49.3

1.06

+1.0

-153

-0.85

8.0

O -102

8.70

0.54

Max Scherzer

-126

50.7

-9.49

-1.0

+117

-13.11

U -118

-9.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sandy Alcantara

+163

35.9

-5.69

+1.5

-136

-1.64

6.0

O -116

6.69

6.57

Tarik Skubal

-199

64.1

-3.63

-1.5

+113

-7.73

U -104

-16.11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jose Soriano

-112

58.1

11.11

-1.0

+115

12.64

8.5

O -110

9.00

-6.97

Andrew Abbott

-108

41.9

-20.46

+1.0

-149

-20.44

U -110

-2.12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cam Schlittler

-156

56.9

-5.33

-1.0

-120

-6.74

7.5

O -112

8.29

-2.78

Drew Rasmussen

+129

43.1

-3.11

+1.0

-109

-5.80

U -108

-6.32

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aaron Civale

+144

39.3

-4.35

+1.0

-104

-3.90

7.5

O -102

7.66

-8.49

Freddy Peralta

-175

60.7

-4.46

-1.0

-125

-8.18

U -118

-0.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Zack Littell

+179

43.3

20.33

+1.5

-120

11.93

8.0

O -103

8.83

2.31

Brandon Woodruff

-219

56.7

-17.16

-1.5

+100

-22.10

U -116

-10.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grant Taylor

+159

39.3

0.54

+1.5

-122

1.65

9.0

O -120

9.14

-18.51

Noah Cameron

-194

60.7

-7.28

-1.5

+102

-10.84

U +100

11.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brayan Bello

-126

57.2

4.16

-1.0

-101

1.77

9.0

O +100

8.05

-30.66

Andre Pallante

+104

42.8

-14.46

+1.0

-128

-12.97

U -120

19.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bubba Chandler

+113

46.7

-2.28

+1.0

-126

-4.86

12.5

O -115

11.89

-31.54

Jameson Taillon

-136

53.3

-6.09

-1.0

-103

-7.45

U -105

23.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cody Bolton

+139

36.3

-14.51

+1.0

-106

-14.28

8.0

O -102

8.45

-3.20

Logan Gilbert

-168

63.7

2.46

-1.0

-122

1.70

U -118

-5.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kyle Freeland

+199

31.8

-6.77

+1.5

-115

-7.23

7.5

O -118

7.53

-16.49

Nick Pivetta

-246

68.2

-3.20

-1.5

-105

-1.64

U -102

8.53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jacob deGrom

+109

47.7

-0.45

+1.0

-143

-2.68

8.5

O -112

9.37

-1.93

Roki Sasaki

-131

52.3

-7.65

-1.0

+110

-10.27

U -108

-7.19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tanner Bibee

+163

38.3

0.26

+1.5

-136

-0.55

7.5

O -108

7.83

-8.33

Chris Sale

-199

61.7

-7.02

-1.5

+113

-9.07

U -112

-0.81

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

New York Yankees 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Under:
The Yankees have gone under their first-five innings team total in five straight games. (+5.00 Units / 72% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +110

Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
The Diamondbacks have gone over their first-five innings team total in 12 of their last 15 road games. (+9.20 Units / 53% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -145

Milwaukee Brewers Run Line:
The Brewers have covered the run line in 13 of their last 20 home games. (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +100

Detroit Tigers Run Line:
The Tiges have covered the run line in four of their last five home games. (+4.60 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: -1.5 @ +113

Houston Astros 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total Over:
The Astros have gone over the first-five innings team total in 14 of their last 20 games. (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +110