Just three races into the new Formula 1 campaign, it’s obvious that some teams are making a better fist of competing under the sport’s problematic new regulations than others.While the FIA are cooking up urgent reforms to address the battery deployment issues drivers faced in the opening rounds, an order is already emerging in F1 2026. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that Mercedes are out front, but McLaren and Ferrari look capable of catching up. By contrast, the wheels are really coming off at Red Bull. Max Verstappen’s future is still in the air, and his running mate Gianpiero Lambiase recently agreed to join McLaren. Aston Martin are also mired at the back despite Papa Stroll throwing his checkbook at the project. This could turn into a net positive with Stroll Jr. starting to race elsewhere, but things aren’t going to plan at Aston.
Others like Haas and long-suffering Alpine have made the best of a dumpster fire start to the new regulations, grabbing early points and making headway while others find their feet.
But who’s going to stay at the sharp end of the grid? And who needs to quickly change tack? Here’s a guesstimated running order, based on Australia, China, and Japan.
Mercedes, Ferrari & McLaren fighting out front
Whenever Mercedes get into clean air, they charge off into the distance. Russell looked poised out front in Australia and would’ve likely won in Japan if the safety car had arrived just one lap earlier. However, it’s not like Kimi Antonelli is far behind pace-wise—he’s emerging as a real threat.
While Antonelli has put himself under pressure with some poor starts, he has shown that he’s fast enough to fight back and compete with his more established teammate. It’ll be fascinating to see if he can keep pace for the next 19 races.
Although Ferrari fell behind McLaren at Suzuka, the Scuderia have made a solid start to the campaign. They also competed with Verstappen at the beginning of the last rule set in 2022; it remains to be seen if they can develop this package and stay in the hunt.
But the small turbo fitted to the SF-26 is turning out to be a major advantage and the “Macarena” rear wing could become a factor as the season goes on.
Then there’s McLaren. They would be at least one tier down our pecking order if you took Japan out of the equation, but the boys in Papaya are now getting more out of their Mercedes power unit. When you consider how much ground they recovered in the last generation of cars, they could yet emerge as serious contenders.
Until the last race, Lando Norris had looked out of sorts and Oscar Piastri had failed to start a Grand Prix. But once he got going, the Aussie showed formidable race pace—and may have competed for the win without the safety car.
So, it’s not impossible that we’ll eventually have a three-way fight at the front of the grid, even if we’re stuck in a loop of yo-yo overtaking for the time being.
Alpine & Haas make positive start, Red Bull behind
Arguably, Alpine have made the biggest improvement. Their decision to write off last year’s car is paying dividends, as Pierre Gasly is thriving with a much improved package.
Even Franco Colapinto, who really struggled last year, scored points in China. The team’s future is still a big question mark. But on track, they’re doing better, returning to the front of the midfield.
Haas have also challenged the now Mercedes-powered Alpine for point-scoring positions. Prior to his accident in Japan, Ollie Bearman had been one of this year’s star performers, picking up P7 in Australia and P5 in China. He’s also wiping the floor with teammate Esteban Ocon in a pacey Haas built around a strong Ferrari PU.
Can Alpine and Haas stay where they are in the pecking order? That depends on whether Red Bull can get their act together. Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar have both scored points in the opening races, so they’re not out of contention, but they’re falling way short of the standards set by Horner & Co.
Sister team Racing Bulls have also been in the top-ten mix at times. As we saw last year, their car can be easier to drive. Liam Lawson has landed on his feet in the junior team, scoring points in China and Japan. But it’s really up to Laurent Mekies to turn things around at Red Bull if he wants the sport’s leading light to stay in Milton Keynes.
Audi a tad unlucky? Williams with work to do
At times, Audi have flattered to deceive. Clearly benefitting from running under the Sauber name last year, the team have looked capable of top-ten finishes. The car has been less competitive in race trim, so they’ve failed to convert this into points. But considering they’re running a new engine and fuel, the R26 isn’t too shabby.
Williams, on the other hand, have made a diabolical start to the new campaign. Despite all James Vowles’ pre-season PR spin about his team “turning a corner,” they’ve slipped to the back of this season’s midfield.
Thanks to reliability issues elsewhere, Carlos Sainz finished P9 in China. But the Grove team are seriously lacking pace. At times, their overweight car has been the slowest except for Aston Martin and Cadillac and Alex Albon (who went out in Q1 in Japan) let out his frustration on team radio about time lost on the straights.
Perhaps with better battery deployment and a bit of Ozempic, they can compete again. Though they’ve got an awful lot of work to do. Williams have started on the back foot.
Aston Martin & Cadillac in for a long season
When you consider the challenges behind entering F1’s first new team in a decade, it’s hard to sling mud at Cadillac. Sergio Perez’s silly lunge on Valtteri Bottas in China aside, they’ve made an okay start to the campaign, especially reliability-wise, but then, they do have GM behind them…
It’s questionable if they can catch the midfield this season. If they can take advantage of other teams’ misfortune or a well-timed safety car, it’s possible. But on pace, it currently seems like a tall order. A long season of playing catch-up could be ahead.
For Aston Martin, the decision to make Adrian Newey team principal has backfired. The design guru will soon be sent back to the drawing board, with Jonathan Wheatley being touted as the next boss of the team. Either way, whoever ends up in charge will need to extinguish a lot of fires before they can even think about speed.
Everyone blamed Honda for early reliability issues. But it has since emerged that the chassis is also a second off the pace. With the AMR26 shaking the team’s drivers to the point of potential nerve damage, Aston are the clear losers of F1 2026 so far.
Fernando Alonso has tipped the team to compete once these issues are fixed, so who knows where they’ll end up. But by the time Aston Martin have sorted through their mountain of problems, even a sprightly Alonso might’ve retired!