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The median Australian superannuation fund delivered an outstanding 10.5% return in FY25, according to Chant West data.
That total return includes capital growth and dividends.
Chant West senior investment research manager Mano Mohankumar described last year’s superannuation returns as “tremendous”.
The total return exceeded that of FY24 (9.1%) and FY23 (9.2%) — but still, they were very good years, too.
All up, the median superannuation fund has lifted by almost 30% in just three years, with strong share markets the primary tailwind.
Will this level of growth continue in FY26?
AMP Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver, gives his predictions in a recent article.
Expert’s tip for superannuation growth in FY26
Dr Oliver thinks superannuation funds will, indeed, continue to grow in FY26 but at a slower pace.
He says:
… after three years in a row of 9-10% balanced growth super fund returns, some slowing is likely to a more sustainable pace around 6-7% particularly as share valuations are high.
The key for investors including super fund members is to maintain a long-term strategy and turn down the noise.
Dr Oliver said there were numerous risks for investment markets in FY26.
They include the unknown impact of the finalised US tariffs, which became effective earlier this month, and US public debt sustainability.
Dr Oliver said:
… the One Big Beautiful Bill (tax cut) Act even with tariff revenue looks set to keep the budget deficit around 6 or 7% of GDP and lead to a further rise in already high level of public debt.
This in turn could accelerate the decline in the $US and put upwards pressure on US bond yields.
Any move by Trump to undermine the Fed’s independence could accentuate this.
Geopolitical risks also remain, including ongoing US and China tensions and the war in Ukraine.
Dr Oliver said earnings expectations are at risk, in both the US and Australia, with softer-than-expected economic growth recently.
He says:
Shares are overvalued – trading on high price to earnings multiples and offer a low-risk premium over bonds compared to the last two decades.
This is particularly the case for US shares but also to a lesser degree for Australian shares.
By contrast Eurozone shares are offering better value.
Dr Oliver says another 15% correction in share markets is possible in FY26.
But he also notes that FY25 provided a case study in resilience amid the same risks.
While the near-term outlook for shares is still messy, shares should benefit on a 6-12 month view as Trump pivots towards more market friendly policies to help Republicans do well in next year’s midterm elections, the Fed starts cutting rates from September … and other central banks including the RBA continue to cut rates.
AMP is tipping four interest rate cuts in Australia between now and February 2026.
We will find out the Reserve Bank’s next call on interest rates at 2.30pm AEST today.
Dr Oliver said rate cuts should help support economic and profit growth and drive share prices higher.
Taking all of this into account, Dr Oliver’s base case for superannuation returns in FY26 is 6% to 7%.
Chant West defines a median growth super fund as one with 61% to 80% allocation to growth assets like international and ASX shares.
You can read about how other types of superannuation funds, like balanced and conservative, performed in FY25 here.
You can also find out the specific names of the top 10 median growth superannuation funds of FY25. (The best one returned 12.9%.)
How much superannuation savings should you have at your age now?
Find out how much superannuation savings you should have at your age today to ensure a financially secure retirement down the track.