Stefanos Tsitsipas aims to get his season back on track at the ATP Madrid Open. The unseeded Greek faces World No. 11 Alexander Bublik in an entertaining second-round match. Who will advance to the next round?

ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions
Flavio Cobolli vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Head-to-head: first meeting

Cobolli’s start of 2026 was largely affected by health issues, and it took him nearly two months to get into his stride. The Italian is close to his best form. He’s coming off a runner-up finish in Munich, where he did not drop a set before the final. That run saw him beat the defending champion Alexander Zverev. Ugo Carabelli has already lifted a clay-court title this season at the Challenger level and defeated Gael Monfils in the opening round. This should be a tricky match for the much-fancied Cobolli to navigate, but he’s steadier from the baseline.

Prediction: Cobolli in 3

Karen Khachanov vs Adam Walton

Head-to-head: first meeting

Khachanov is having an underwhelming season. His recent form is concerning. He’s lost his last three atches at the tour level without winning a single set. Adam Walton stunned home favorite Martin Landaluce and will be inspired by that performance, considering it was only his second match on clay this season. That said, even with Khachanov not at his best, I think the Russian’s weight of shot is still daunting and effective in these conditions.

Prediction: Khachanov in 2

Corentin Moutet vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Head-to-head: first meeting

Merida Aguilar is now a popular name in Spanish men’s tennis, thanks to that brilliant run in Bucharest earlier this month. He reached his first ATP final as a qualifier and very nearly completed a perfect week (lost in three sets to Mariano Navone). That run has given him an immediate surge in confidence. The Spaniard saved two match points against serve and went on to defeat Marco Trungelliti in the opening round this week. Moutet is creative, disruptive, and capable of picking apart less-experienced opponents at this level. But the Frenchman’s problem has always been consistency. Merida Aguilar is competing with a lot of belief right now and could seize this moment on home soil.

Prediction: Merida Aguilar in 3

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexander Bublik

Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 2-0 Bublik

Tsitsipas clawed past American lucky loser Patrick Kypson to end his three-match losing streak in the first round of the Madrid Open. The Greek was on the brink of another early exit, but pinched two tiebreak sets to win 3-6 7-6 7-6. This was his 12th win of the season and his first this swing. Bublik, for his part, is set to play his first match since crashing out of the Munich Open at the first hurdle. The Kazakhstani made a promising start to the clay-court swing in Monte Carlo, where he reached the last eight. But defeat to Alex Molcan in the German capital is a reminder of how quickly things can unravel for him. Despite Tsitsipas’ struggles this season, he’s still capable of raising his level on this surface.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in 2

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports