Strong previews and fan momentum push Michael Jackson biopic toward one of the biggest musical biopic debuts ever

Deadline reports that early returns for Lionsgate’s Michael show the film is off to a powerful start, with Friday earnings projected between $35 million and $40 million, including $12.6 million from previews. The film is currently tracking toward an $85 million to $95 million opening weekend, with the possibility of climbing higher if demand proves front-loaded.

“Something special is happening, people are dancing in the theaters,” says one source close to the film.

The debut is already the strongest post-pandemic opening for Lionsgate, surpassing John Wick: Chapter 4 ($73.8 million), and sets a new high for a musical biopic, overtaking Straight Outta Compton ($60.2 million).

Looking at past comparisons, 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody opened with $51 million domestically after an $18.8 million Friday and preview total, maintaining steady numbers through the weekend.

Social media data reflects strong audience anticipation. Analytics firm RelishMix reported a combined 417.9 million followers across platforms engaging with Michael, significantly above genre averages and ahead of comparable films like Elvis and Rocketman.

“Convo runs positive for Michael, with fans treating trailers like a time machine and the casting as emotional insurance; ‘I literally just got shivers and goosebumps.’ Legacy worship is loud and specific, framing MJ as untouchable cultural capital; ‘No matter what anyone says about him… he changed the world’ and ‘Long live the KING of Music and Entertainment.’ Craft nerds clock the mimicry, voice, and movement like a performance audit; ‘The attention to detail in his movements is incredible’ and ‘That voice is spot on. I’m impressed.’ The family angle reads as authenticity and brand safety at once; ‘Feels really fitting they have his nephew playing MJ’ and ‘He’s a clone of Michael.’ Biopic comps show up as upside signals and expectations management; ‘I loved Bohemian Rhapsody’ and ‘as amazing as the American Dream movie.’”

Despite Michael’s strong performance, other films continue to hold steady at the box office.

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — $20.5M weekend, $385.7M total

Project Hail Mary — $12M weekend, $304.2M total

The Mummy — $5.1M weekend, $22.9M total

The Drama — $2.6M weekend, $44.6M total

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The film brought in $12.6 million in previews, including $3.8 million from early IMAX and premium screenings. Audience reception remains strong, with early PostTrak data showing 5 stars, 88% positive ratings, and 81% definite recommendation.

Demographics show a diverse and youthful audience, with 58% under age 35 and a slight female majority at 56%. Half of the attendees cited being Michael Jackson fans as their primary reason for seeing the film.

Audience scores are high, with a 96% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and an A- CinemaScore, aligning with films like Elvis and Rocketman.

Earlier projections indicated preview totals between $12.5 million and $13.5 million, already surpassing other musical biopics and even outperforming major releases like Dune: Part Two, Oppenheimer, and Toy Story 4 in early earnings.

The film is also exceeding expectations compared to Project Hail Mary, which opened with $12 million in previews and went on to debut at $80.5 million.

With strong international numbers already reported at $18.5 million on its first day overseas, Michael is shaping up to be a major global success.