Any changes to negative gearing need to boost housing supply for millions of Australians struggling with shortages, a leading expert has demanded.
Labor is considering changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax to boost “intergenerational equity” in the housing market.
Despite this flying in the face of multiple promises ahead of the 2025 election, the Albanese government is likely to reveal the new measures at next month’s budget.
Liam Dillon, the head of economics at thinktank the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, said any changes must prioritise housing supply.
“Any policy needs to be carefully designed and evaluated. It goes to the fairness piece,” he told Business Now.
“We need to make sure that any policy we have is achieving its objective and so if we do introduce those new changes, we need to be sure it’s supporting those objectives of increasing supply.”
Commonwealth Bank of Australia is predicting Labor will target both negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions at the budget.
“Major changes to CGT and negative gearing appear locked in,” CBA chief economist Luke Yeaman said in the bank’s federal budget preview.
“This will boost revenue, but won’t shift the dial on productivity or housing affordability.
“Boosting supply is still the key.”
On negative gearing, discussions had been focused on limiting the benefit to a small number of properties, but the latest assessment instead points to a broader removal for new investments.
The bank estimates the combined impact of these measures could raise around $2 billion over the first four years and as much as $25 billion to $30 billion over a decade.
Around 800,000 taxpayers hold one negatively geared property, while 275,000 own multiple.
Budget office figures suggest removing the policy entirely could generate several billion dollars each year, depending on how broadly the change is applied.
Negative gearing allows investors to claim their losses from an asset, such as an investment property, on their taxes.
Property investors are not limited to newly built homes, nor is there a cap on the number of dwellings they can negatively gear on.
Mr Dillon said any changes must ensure more housing is built as many loans are going towards buyers of existing homes.
“The distribution of new loans going towards housing has skewed more to the investor class and where we see those new loans is really in established homes,” he said.
“It’s not really contributing under current tax settings to building new homes, which is what we need.
“That’s why it’s one important part of the mix that we do need to consider.”
Labor MP Ed Husic confirmed the government was examining changes to investment tax breaks on Wednesday.
“I do think it’s a good thing we’re looking at the CGT discount,” he told Sky News.
“If you’re getting to your fifth or sixth home that you’re investing in, how long should the Australian taxpayers support that?
“I reckon a lot of Australians would be thinking about whether or not that’s right and fair, but appreciate that people will want to build a strong future for themselves.”