Formula 1‘s return to the track could be a soggy one.
Miami is forecast to be hit with rain and thunderstorms on race day that could shake up the order and disrupt track running.
While the early parts of the weekend look clear, the looming threat of Monday (AEST) wet weather has already prompted discussion within the FIA and concerns have been raised amongst drivers about their first time out in wet weather in 2026.
READ MORE: League world reacts to ‘heartbreaking’ Bellamy news
READ MORE: ‘Major disappointment’ as Blues sink Maroons in thriller
READ MORE: Aussie stars in limbo as LIV Golf teeters on collapse
The latest forecast is suggesting that stable, dry conditions will be seen for Saturday and Sunday which covers practice, sprint qualifying, the sprint race and grand prix qualifying.
But as temperatures climb to over 30 degrees during those events, weather begins to deteriorate for the 4pm start on Sunday (6am Monday AEST).
Forecasts predict Miami to face 100 per cent cloud cover, rising humidity with a 95 per cent chance of rain and 57 per cent probability of thunderstorms, which is expected to bring lightning strikes to the Florida area.
Rain and lightning could red flag the race in Miami, Florida. AP
“I don’t think many of us have driven these cars in the rain before,” said Aussie driver Oscar Piastri.
“Maybe a couple of people in Barcelona at the shakedown [test].
“But I think they’re going to be challenging cars to drive in the rain just because of some of the quirks that they have. Obviously the weather, normally if it rains in Miami it does it properly, so we’ll wait and see. It’ll be interesting one way or another.”
Piastri hinted at the January Barcelona test week some drivers did get a head start on wet weather acclimation as shakedown days were rain-affected.
But Miami would be the first for the entire 22-driver grid to experience a race in the wet as all the main tests and all grand prix sessions so far have been dry.
Pierre Gasly said Alpine’s wet shakedown in January had been “the most extreme I’ve ever done in my life, so after that I feel pretty prepared for any conditions I’m going to face”.
“I expect it to be very challenging if it’s wet,” he continued.
Rain is set for the Miami Grand Prix. Getty
“I’m prepared for it, I know what to face, I know how to do it, how to maximise and make the best out of anything that would happen. And I know I’m pretty good in these conditions, so personally I wouldn’t mind it.
“But it will be a pretty special race – and especially here on the wet I think it’s quite tricky like in terms of grip conditions, aquaplaning, the bridges, you have a couple of traps that you need to stay away from, but I think will bring some good opportunities.”
In response to driver concerns, the FIA has amended the regulations specifically for this weekend.
If rain does fall, drivers will be prohibited from using ‘boost mode’ to overtake.
The decision stems from fears that the instant torque delivered by the new 2026 power units could cause sudden oversteer on Miami’s unforgiving circuit.
“As we saw last year on the straights, a lot of standing water here,” said Carlos Sainz.
“It’s a super-flat track (Miami), the water stays on the surface and whether that’s going to be safe enough or not with the walls close to you and the visibility that we have with these cars, it is certainly going to be a concern.
McLaren getting intermediate tyres ready for use. Getty
“But I hope that we can take all the appropriate actions for it. We can have a good show, a good race. I think all drivers want to drive in the wet. Wet races are a lot of fun.
“But hopefully with the right system and tools in place to make it safe. And also, there’s this lightning risk that I don’t know what will happen with.”
As Florida is dubbed the lightning capital of the United States, it is prone to extreme weather including intense hurricanes from June onward and the state is stringent with its weather rules.
Local safety protocols from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) recommend the suspension of large, outdoor public events if lightning is detected within a 13-kilometre radius.
While a full evacuation of the Hard Rock Stadium venue is highly unlikely, a lightning strike within that zone would trigger an immediate red flag.
Miami is set for wet weather running during the race. Getty
The race would be halted for at least 30 minutes, resuming only once team weather radars show no further lightning activity in the area.
“If it’s thunderstorms like they say, we probably also won’t get under way for quite a bit of time,” said Kimi Antonelli, the current leader in the championship.
“Definitely it’s going to be very interesting because there’s so much unknown in the wet at the moment, especially no one (has) really used the (intermediate) tyres, so we don’t know how it’s going to feel, how much grip there will be, especially with the new regulation.
“I think also one thing with this year’s cars, it’s a bit harder to build temperature with the tyres. So in the wet, they might be tricky and that’s why we probably would need to increase tyre blanket temps in order to make it a bit better and a bit easier on that side.”
Heavy rain usually halts proceedings at Formula 1 weekends. ASSOCIATED PRESS
But the FIA is in full consultation with weather regulators in the area and has leaned on their contingency plan created from last year’s Miami Grand Prix weather bouts as inspiration.
“We are closely monitoring the weather forecast for this weekend,” an FIA spokesperson told media.
“Having faced a similar situation last year in Miami with threats of thunderstorms, we have a contingency plan in place and will activate it if needed to minimise disruption to the on-track programme.”