The cream of the northern hemisphere may have come and gone, but even Six Nations champions France and the British & Irish Lions were only primo to the secondo of the Rugby Championship. They have whetted the appetite but for rugby followers south of the equator, the meat is still to come.
World Rugby’s men’s rankings are in a rare state of alignment. The current pecking order accurately describes the gulf between traditional giants South Africa and New Zealand on the one hand, and Australia and Argentina on the other:
The two super-powers are 10 points ahead, and that is a useful short-hand for any predictions for the 2025 Rugby Championship which begins next weekend.
The following table of territory and possession stats gleaned from the 2024 tournament helps show why:
Ball-in-play time no longer rules the statistical roost. Now winning is a function of the relationship between time spent in possession linked to the overall time the ball is ‘live’, and it is in this realm that the Springbok is king.
In matches featuring South Africa, the ball tends to be in play for shorter periods of time, but the Bokke have the lion’s share of it. New Zealand and Australia are trying to up the pace and the content but are less efficient at keeping control of the ball. Can the Australasian nations prove that the Super Rugby model works at a higher level in 2025?
The Probables: South Africa. The current world champions enter the competition as favourites even though they will play two Tests in New Zealand. They begin the tournament with a double-header against Australia at home and their only other away match is a showpiece event at a neutral ground [Twickenham]. The Bokke will have happy memories of the old cabbage patch after their 35-7 demolition of the All Blacks just before the 2023 World Cup.
Fourth quarter scoring. Within their preferred low ball-in-play time frame, the Boks were strongest when it counted. They dominated the last quarter of games in the 2024 tournament, scoring the highest number of points [64] while conceding the fewest [10] in the last 20 minutes. They achieved that aim without resorting to the 7-1 bench. Three games began with the 6-2 split [two wins out of three] and the other three with a conventional 5-3 [three wins out of three].Scrum penalties. The Springboks were way ahead of all the other nations in terms of scrum efficiency measured by penalties awarded/conceded, and this goes a long way towards explaining their control of territory and possession:
Phase defence. The Bokke conceded the fewest number of tries in the 2024 tournament – a niggardly 10 in six matches at a rate of less than two per game. The most remarkable stat of all is that South Africa gave up all of those tries within five phases or less. If you try to ‘keep-ball’ against these Boks, the rush defence becomes virtually impenetrable once the opponent plays past 6+ phases. This presents a big problem for the two Super Rugby-based countries [Australia and New Zealand] who want to apply pressure by keeping ball in hand. The rush defence has yet to be worked out by Australasia.
Players to watch. ‘Rassie’ Erasmus selected 51 different players overall in the course of 2024, and he picked eight different combinations at the key spots for the big men [Nos. 4, 5 and 7], switching the lineout captaincy between four different second-rows in the process. You can be sure there will be further experimentation this term. Bulls’ 144-kilos mammoth Wilco Louw has the chance to prove he is the natural replacement at tight-head prop for Frans Malherbe at the 2027 World Cup, and he may find hybrid Jan-Hendrik Wessels moving in as his next-door neighbour at hooker. At full-back there is a battle royale shaping up between Aphelele Fassi and injury returnee Damian Willemse to replace evergreen Willie Le Roux. The veteran full-back will be 36 by the time the tournament finishes and is now as much an on-field coach as he is a player.
The Probables: New Zealand. The All Blacks will want to avoid a ‘sophomore slump’ in Scott Robertson’s second season in charge, and the key will be to climb a performance peak which has proven insurmountable in recent times. The last occasion on which the All Blacks beat the Springboks was at Auckland’s Mount Smart stadium on 15 July 2023, over two years ago. Since then, Rassie Erasmus’ South Africa has won the last four games between the two greatest nations on planet rugby, and the Bokke swept the two-game series in the Republic in last year’s tournament. Nothing less than 2-0 to the Blacks will do this time around.
Fourth quarter turnaround. Not so very long ago, the All Blacks entered the lists in the confident belief they could run the opposition off its feet, and make their individual skills count in the final quarter of games. How times have changed. New Zealand ranked dead last in scoring in the final 20 minutes at the 2024 Rugby Championship:
What has become of Super Rugby, that teams built from players plying their trade in competitions north of equator have such a distinct edge in the final quarter of games? There was some improvement in the July series against France ‘B’, with New Zealand winning the final-quarter contest 17-7 and two tries to one over the three Tests, but is that enough of an improvement to topple the mighty Boks?
Hop aboard the quick-scoring train! Can Razor’s men find a way to score quickly against Rassie’s Boks? They managed the feat in the first edition of the 2024 double-header, scoring four tries in the space of only five phases of play in the first match at Ellis Park; but they were shut out completely seven days later in Cape Town. The issue can be illustrated by another table drawn from the 2024 competition:
One year ago, it took the two nations based in Super Rugby longer to score than either South Africa or Argentina. The All Blacks improved this July, with nine tries out of 14 [64%] scored within the first four phases versus Les Bleus; but will that translate against a Springbok rush defence which only conceded one of its 10 tries after five phases? The problem has been underlined for Razor in all black and white.
Turnover attack. Historically, the All Blacks have always been the very best at scoring from turnover attack, and the 2024 Rugby Championship was no exception. New Zealand converted nine tries from turnovers, just ahead of both Argentina and South Africa [eight apiece] with the Wallabies languishing in a distant fourth with only one try. Nobody makes breakdown pilfers to fan the flames quite like New Zealand:
The Possibles: Australia. Of the four nations, it is Australia which has the steepest mountain to climb. The value of the Wallabies’ stirring third Test comeback against the Lions will be tested to the limit by a double-header in South Africa, starting at Ellis Park altitude. If Joe Schmidt’s men return empty-handed from the Republic, the self-belief built from the win in rain-soaked Sydney could dissolve like wet newspaper in their hands. Schmidt’s current win rate [47%] includes four victories over teams ranked outside the top 10, with three over Wales and one versus Georgia, so the bubble of confidence is fragile indeed.
The case for the defence. In its halcyon era 1997-2001, Australia was always known for a watertight defence coached by ex-leaguer John Muggleton. While there have been signs of gradual improvement in the current Wallabies since Schmidt took over the reins at the end of the last World Cup, the results are far from world-leading:
The Wallabies’ defence was on average 20 points per game worse than the Springboks at TRC 2024. It has managed to keep opposition scoring under the magic marker of 20 points on only two occasions over 13 games in top-tier competitions: at La Plata versus the Pumas in the third round of TRC 2024, and in the rain-storm at Sydney against the Lions a fortnight ago. In Joe we may trust, but it is getting harder by the game to trust the outmoded defensive system he oversees.
Has Schmidt got the attacking equation right? The Joe Schmidt attacking formula is based around establishing enough field position to wear down the opposing defence with accurate carrying close to the ruck. That tends to mean high ball-in-play with Schmidt’s charges having the lion’s share of possession:
The Wallaby supremo got more of what he wanted in the Lions series, and that in turn helped keep the pressure off his defence. The main problem is how long it takes Australia to score tries:
In last year’s Rugby Championship, all three of South Africa, New Zealand and Argentina were far leaner and more efficient on attack, with an average of around 20 rucks required to produce a try. The Wallabies needed 49 rucks to create one try at TRC 2024, and 39 to make a score versus the Lions. Will the defending champions’ blitz defence give them a chance to build their way into the game?
Green shoots of hope at lineout time. With Allan Alaalatoa out injured and Taniela Tupou still working his way back into form, the scrum will need to hang on against the mighty Boks, and Australia will be more dependent than ever on their lineout to provide a platform for attack. In three games against the Lions, the Wallabies won 90% of their own ball and had great success even when reduced to two jumpers in the second and third Tests:
With Nick Frost in imperious form and back-up from Tom Hooper, Harry Wilson and Bobby Valetini as alternate receivers, the Wallabies can not only afford Will Skelton, they can afford to build their entire forward game around him.
Positions to watch. With both Noah Lolesio and Tom Lynagh out injured, Schmidt needs another No.10 to step up to the plate, and it is likely to come from a mix of up-and-down Ben Donaldson and veteran schemer James O’Connor. Can JOC and Nic White between them keep ‘Donno’ on track? Will Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i be given the chance to show his skills in space and in the air out on the wing, as ex-Wallaby skipper Stirling Mortlock recently suggested?
“I was playing provincial rugby for the Brumbies at 13, but two seasons on the wing gave me a great opportunity to understand what wingers need from a 13, from a voice and connection, and combination-wise. That helped my development as a 13 massively.
“You don’t lose much if you put him on the wing and, in particular, what you do get is his aerial skills. He’s unbelievable with the high ball and cross kicks.”
Amen to that.
The Possibles: Argentina. The Pumas remain the enigma of the Rugby Championship and southern hemisphere rugby in general. They have a better record against New Zealand in New Zealand than anyone bar Ireland in recent times, having won two of the last four matches dating back to 2022. They have also invariably found a way to maximize their potential at the pointy end of World Cups, having reached the semi-final stage at three of the last five global tournaments. That is no easy task – just ask the Irish.
Argentine players are mainly spread across competitions in the northern hemisphere, after the demise of the Jaguares in Super Rugby in 2020. The latest 34-man edition of the squad is highly cosmopolitan:
One of the reasons for the Pumas’ maddening lack of consistency is the difficulty of keeping the same group of players – based around four separate leagues in France, Italy and the UK – together for any length of time. The team which claimed an historic 28-24 victory over the British & Irish Lions on 20 June only had seven starters in common with the side which lost 17-22 to England ‘B’ on 12 July. When the chips are down the group binds as tight as any bajada, but there are too many occasions where that concentration of purpose is diluted by varying availability.
Rediscovering the national foundation-stone at scrum-time. The scrum has always been the historical talisman for the Pumas, but at TRC 2024 the Pumas found themselves at the very bottom of a four-team heap.
The days of Marcos Ayerza, Ramiro Herrera and Juan Figallo feel like a distant memory. If the Pumas cannot scrum, the pounding heartbeat of a rugby nation goes missing. Head coach Felipe Contepomi may have to wait for the new generation of scrummagers from the Under 20s to mature before pride is properly restored. The Pumitas’ scrum finished with a +12 penalty differential at the recent Under 20 World Championship, but the true target for the next-gen of Diego Correa, Juan Ignacio Rodriguez, Gael Galvan and Tomas Rapetti will be 2031, not the 2027 World Cup.
Quick-scoring attack. Under the stewardship of Contepomi, the Argentine attack has become a quick-scoring machine. The one-off Test against the Lions showed how lethal the Pumas can be in early-phase, turnover attack. Their three tries in Dublin only required four total phases and two derived from ‘transition attack’. The model was already in place at TRC 2024:
Porous Pumas on D? Remember the table with which this preview started?
Argentina enjoyed the least active time of active possession of any of the Rugby Championship teams in 2024 at 15.8 minutes per game, and they had the fewest turnovers at the breakdown – a mere 11 pilfers in six games, compared to 17 apiece by Australia and South Africa, and 28 by the All Blacks. That means a good possession attack can force the Pumas to spend large swathes of the game on defence: 13 of the 24 tries given up by the sky blue and white came after the fourth phase of play.
Players to watch. In the backs, Tomas Albornoz finished as the premier No.10 by the end of the 2024 tournament and is key to the Pumas’ attacking decision-making, with a genuine ‘triple threat’ on the run, the pass and off the boot. Up front, Contepomi can perm any three from four world-class back rowers in the form of hard-carrying Joaquin Oviedo, defensive enforcer Marcos Kremer, multi-tasking Pablo Matera and rangy top-of-the-ground athlete Juan Martin Gonzalez.
Conclusion. There is little chance of any upset of the established world order south of the equator at the 2025 Rugby Championship. Both Argentina and Australia have tough starts away from home, and it is hard to see the Pumas improving on their 3-3, 50% performance last year. The Wallabies could fall to 1-5 if they lose both Tests on the mini-tour of South Africa, while the destination of the trophy is likely to be decided in the third and four rounds via the momentous double-header between the All Blacks and Springboks. Plus ça change, c’est la même chose.