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The Kansas City Royals hope to wrap up their four-game set with a series win when they host the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium.
Seth Lugo has been dynamite, and my Guardians vs. Royals predictions expect the Royals to wrap up the series in style.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, May 7.
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Who will win Guardians vs Royals today: Royals moneyline (-135)
Seth Lugo has been one of the best starters in the American League this season.
He’s recorded five quality starts in seven outings with a 2.68 ERA and a 99th-percentile breaking ball that the Cleveland Guardians’ below-average offense is ill-equipped to handle.
Bobby Witt Jr. leads the Kansas City Royals with a .387 xwOBA and 50.4% hard-hit rate, while Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi has allowed hard contact all season, resulting in a 6.56 ERA.
With the pitching advantage firmly in Kansas City‘s favor, the Royals are worth backing on the moneyline and run line.
Covers
COVERS INTEL:
Cecconi’s 79th-percentile average exit velocity allowed has directly translated into eight home runs this season.
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Guardians vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9 (+102)
The Guardians and Royals rank 21st and 22nd in wRC+, respectively, and Cleveland’s lineup has been even worse against right-handed pitching, posting a 91 wRC+ on the season.
Neither offense has shown the ability to generate consistent run support, with both clubs sitting below the league average in OBP, SLG, and ISO.
These two offenses have combined to go Under in seven of their last 10 head-to-head matchups, and a total of nine runs is simply too generous for two of the more anemic lineups in the American League.
Phil Naessens’ 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 5-10, -4.05 units
Over/Under bets: 6-7, -2.30 units
Guardians vs Royals odds
Moneyline: Guardians +127 | Royals -133
Run line: Guardians +1.5 (-156) | Royals -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+104) | Under 9.5 (-108)
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Guardians vs Royals trend
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.65 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Royals.
How to watch Guardians vs Royals and game info
Location
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date
Thursday, May 7, 2026
First pitch
2:10 p.m. ET
TV
Guardians.TV, Royals.TV
Guardians starting pitcher
Slade Cecconi
(1-4, 6.56 ERA)
Royals starting pitcher
Seth Lugo
(1-1, 2.68 ERA)
Guardians vs Royals latest injuriesGuardians vs Royals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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